Riverside, I know there is a ton of peril in NY in that rotation. I think the Wang thing was overblown, and potentially was a misdiagnosis. He obviously didnt need surgery and last season was pretty durable. His style of pitching leaves me to believe that he'll be fine this season.
Mussina is always a minor worry. He never gets injured seriously enough for him to miss a large chunk of seasons, but he is always banged up at some point. Either way, he should be around 170IP which is what he has been at for a long time now.
Everyone talks about Pettitte as if he is some invalid with a ticking time bomb in his arm. Yet, he made the most starts in the majors last season and is coming off back to back 200IP seasons after having surgery in 04 after a freak BP accident.
Igawa is an unknown, yes, but his one MO is durability. 200IP average over the past 6 seasons. That is Zito-esque durability. He at least makes me comfortable in knowing he'll take the bump every 5th day, while his performance is certainly a major ??.
Pavano is the 5 for now. Clemens may be the 5 a month in, who knows.
Now, I think the sox rotation is a stellar rotation, if things break right it could be the best in baseball by a long shot, and if people stay healthy. The reason why I dont like the sox staff (pen included) is that there is no spot starter that inspires even a bit of confidence and there are no options in the minors labelled as MLB ready this season. Couple that with a bad pen (as of right now, I know) and you have a major fragility issue, especially when injury concerns can be placed on 4 of the 5 starters (5 of the 5 if you think Matsuzaka's workload may take a toll this season, which I dont believe in full). So who comes in should, for the sake of argument, Papelbon goes down with a shoulder issue and needs to miss a month. Gabbard? He lasted 5IP per start in his 4 spot starts, had a WHIP near 1.6, and walked 16 in 26IP (plus his minor league numbers show he is no control machine). He is an option albeit not a good one. Pauley was terrible sans his start in the Bronx. Abe Alvarez? Kyle Snyder? Lets not even discuss Lester until he shows he can perform and stay healthy, god willing. All are guys who will stay in for 5 at the most, and most likely will leave the sox with 4-5+ innings of pen work. When your pen is the weakness of your team and you really have no viable contingency plan, you are VERY succeptible to injury.
That is where the yankees have you over a barrell. Depth. They have 2 guys with solid minor league track records who came up last season and filled in very nicely when Mussina was out and Lidle was ineffective. If RJ is dealt, they will likely get 2 more MLB ready arms back. Add that to the 3 MLB ready arms in AAA, and you have a AAA rotation that includes 5 top 10 talents as well as 2 guys who spot starter very well last season.
The Yankees will have injuries. So will the sox. It happens every yr. Someone misses a month, a couple starts here or there. It happens to every team. I just feel that an injury to the yankee staff can be handled better than the sox staff due to depth and the fact that the yankee pen can be leaned on more heavily than the sox one can be.
The sox are putting all their eggs in this 5 man's basket. Should one of them go down, they are in big trouble.