jacksonianmarch

He batted .197 before the AS break. He only hit .280 based upon one strong month (July). He totalled .237 for the yr. Cmon, you are better than that. That being said, it isnt like we are talking about AGon vs Jeter here. This is a marginal fielder and a poor hitter vs a poor fielder and a solid hitter who is also captain and merchandising magnet. It isnt even close in terms of who is the bargain. Hell, Lowrie would be better than Lugo right now and he isnt even projected to be a SS, and he'd make what, 300K? Thats a bargain. Lugo at 8mil? You got ripped.

Lugo and his .230BA and sub .650OPS is no bargain at any price. Dont try to fool yourself.

It could be worse, we could have Julio Lugo.

predicting right now is very difficult to do. Too many moving parts and too many things hinging on the success of kids. We are doomed if Joba, Kennedy and Hughes arent at least MLB average. You guys are screwed if DMats,Buchholz, and Lester fall off the face of the earth. Likewise, we'd both be in great positions if all of our kids do well. Too tough to decide. What I do know is that our offense and your pen on paper look better than the other. Thats it.

Couple things. As you notice, the yankees top 2 threw 10 more innings than yours. I would say we should have a similar disparity since Beckett had never thrown that many innings in any yr prior and DMats will likely be babied a bit more after watching him crash and burn last yr. Wake and Mussina have very similar workloads the past 2 yrs, so I continue to call them a wash. The last 2 spots will be filled by hot shot rookies on both ends. There really is nearly no disparity. In the pen, you guys have the edge on paper now. With Joba out there, it evens things a bit, but I dont expect him to stay there for long. As a matter of fact, I expect Joba to supplant Mussina from the rotation come the end of the yr. So therefore, I think it would behoove the yankees to use Joba twice a week in multiple inning stints so he can already be stretched out come his time to enter the rotation. That would essentially eliminate him from contention as a setup man. Hawkins and Farnsworth, two decidedly average MR's will likely begin the yr as the 7th and 8th inning guys. Either they need to be lights out or one of the myriad other solid MR prospects needs to step up. I have my eye on Ohlie and Albaladejo. Regardless, there is no shortage of arms to fill the pen slots, and all with high upside. We just need to find something that works come the post season, if we make it that far. On your side, you start the yr just as reliant on kids as we are, if not moreso. You are relying on Buchholz and Lester to stay in the rotation for the entire yr. To say that these kids are any more likely to hold down a spot for the yr than our kids is homerism. And now with Schill out of the way, our top 3's are about even in terms of expected workload. So there really isnt much contention that we are both reliant on kids in our rotation. In terms of your pen, I think Oki was figured out late and will likely fall into a middle relief rather than a setup option. I also think that your combo of Delcarmen and Papelbon will be your SU-CL combo for a long time.

hughes?

Also, as of right now, the sox and yankees are rather equal in the rotation without Schilling. Beckett>Wang DMats Wakefield=Mussina Buchholz=Hughes Lester=Kennedy Throw in the wild card that Joba offers and I think the yankees have the rotation as it stands right now. If Joba remains in the pen, then I think we can make a case for an equal pen too. Regardless, so many unknowns on teams that have traditionally been filled with all stars makes this season intriguing to say the least. Both of these teams have the capability to rise to unseen heights or crash and burn solely based upon the reliance on solid yet unproven arms.

Not the best of arguments when you are putting W/L in the fray. Schilling was good for 150IP of sub 4 ERA. That is not replaceable as of this very moment. Tavarez was terrible and it took an amazingly awful month to point that out. Overall, those two arent absolutely irreplaceable. The one thing Schill gave you was another seasoned postseason veteran. That being said, those who poo-poo Hughes but hype Buchholz are nuts. Buchholz has a lot to prove, but he certainly has the goods to do so. We shall see how he holds up through the grueling stretch of 162. Lester OTOH, I have been unimpressed by stuff wise. I think he is a fantastic human being in his triumph over cancer, but I am absolutely not sold on his stuff. He is a kid who lives off his curve, yet has poor command of his fastball. Couple that with his career 1.57WHIP and you have the makings of a kid who needs to either improve or get shillacked. He doesnt have the stuff to live as dangerously as he has thus far.

does lugo even get on base?

Lugo isnt that great either. And with Schilling out of the equation, our rotations have equalized IMO for the regular season. For the postseason, you guys have the edge with Beckett, but that is only if none of these kids step up into ace form (which I am expecting Joba will be in come October).

Tavarez got lit up like a christmas tree by July and needed to be pulled from the rotation. He essentially got by on luck for the months of June and July since he was still allowing baserunners at a high clip, but was somehow getting the other team to hit the ball to the fielders. Come July, he got lit to the tune of a .370BAA and needed to be pulled. He had never been a good starter in the past and the sox were lucky they got close to 100 innings out of him as a starter. He reminded me of Chacon for us. Tons of baserunners, houdini when it counted. But once it caught up with him, he was useless. I dont think you can seriously look at him as anything but an emergency starter. Snyder is another poor option out of the rotation. His stuff is not what it used to be and now he is more of a once through the order kind of guy. Now that Schilling sounds like he wont be a factor, the sox front 5 sounds pretty damn good. But the depth in that rotation isnt necessarily ready yet. By June, Masterson and Bowden may be ready to step in if injury hits. But if the sox have an April akin to what we had last yr (11 different SPs) you wont take the hit well.

Well, think about it. Lets say Buchholz comes up at the end of May. He'd save 3 weeks of April and then be on a count for another month. That would essentially guarantee a full yr plus playoffs.

The reports I am reading have the sox starting the yr with Tavarez as the 5th starter and Buchholz in AAA.

I dont think this yankee team will start slow out of the gate, mostly because of the youth infusion in the rotation. Most older pitching staffs start out slow and pick up steam as the season goes along. While the younger staffs blow their load early. We'll have to see how we progress, but I'd expect us to be quick out of the gate and potentially fall back to the pack (depending on the Joba situation of course.)

If what Dr. Morgan said is true, there is no chance of him "healing" without surgery. The sox missed the boat on this one. If Schilling knew about this earlier, he should have addressed the issue in November and he'd definitely be back by the AS break (but in what capacity, nobody knows). As of right now, Schilling will not be back in a capacity to help the sox. And if he finally relents and gets the surgery, his time is pretty much up as it is. This isnt an easy fix for any player. But for a pitcher, this is very, very difficult. And for a 41 yr old pitcher, likely means end of career. Consider this. The biceps muscle has two heads, one that attaches medially and one that attaches inside the shoulder capsule. The medial one is the issue with Schilling by the reports. The biceps muscle is the strongest muscle of the elbow flexor group. And since the elbow is typically held at flexion until release (when it goes into rapid extension), it will be very difficult to maintain a release point and generate the power that a motion typically does. So, lets say Schill is able to tolerate the pain, but has a weaker biceps. It would involve less repeatability and less velocity. So, less power, less control on a guy who has already lost significant power. ie, he'd be useless.

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20080215/i/r1624490959.jpg Joba is in great shape. No more fatty can only be a good thing

That 11-2 record is about as transparent as Clemen's steroids denial and your 'spect didnt exactly make it through the yr unscathed either.

And our rookie was dominant in relief of Clemens in an elimination game and the other threw 3 solid games.

Absolutely. Nothing is written in stone here. Until I see the MRI, I wont make any assumptions at all. But the sox arent exactly coming out and saying his shoulder is rehabable. They are saying they will try.

Arthritis and Tendonitis increase with age. All pitchers eventually break down. It has nothing to do with the fact that they have staved off injury for so long that they are now immune to it. It has everything to do with their conditioning, which has delayed the inevitable. Even the best conditioned pitchers (in terms of arm and legs) eventually wear down. Ask Schilling, Wells, and Clemens. 3 pitchers who pitched into their 40s. All 3 have had serious wear and tear injuries.

Blanton is available and the A's like Crisp. But if the asking price is what the Dodgers heard, then the sox dont have much of a chance. Ethier, LaRoche, plus a pitching prospect. Quite a haul

If what Morgan says is true, then that is a very low likelihood situation.

Mike Sweeney signed a MiLB deal in Oakland

I thought he was asking me a question too