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Everything posted by jacksonianmarch
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Where the Moneyball Meets the Road
jacksonianmarch replied to example1's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
While I applaud the effort, I find your post to be a bit too reactionary. The sox werent crying poor when they dealt for and resigned Shill. They werent crying poor when they dealt for and resigned Beckett. They werent crying poor when they resigned Lowell or signed Drew or resigned Tek or paid 100 mil over 6 yrs to talk to and then sign DiceK. They cannot cry poor now. They cannot sit back and think that they will swear off big time FAs altogether. If they do that, then they'll be the marlins (sans 97 since that was a high priced team). That being said, when the yankees have holes they are willing to fill them with high priced talent. If their needs and the sox needs collide, the sox should expect a bidding war. If they arent willing to do that, then shame on them. The first yankee-sox bidding war this century netted them a player who was a key cog in the sox 2 championship machine. You just cannot give up on it. What the sox do need to do, though, is identify guys that they need regardless of cost. Those players do exist. CC for us was that kind of player. A glaring need with an obvious fit that is young and dominant. Sometimes you gotta just write the check. Regardless, I have been impressed with how the sox find talent. Their draft strategies have been solid and their scrap heap signings have been second to none. But they cannot rely on that every yr to make themselves competitive. Cause if we hit on all of these big time deals, which I think finally may be a likelihood, then scrap heap guys wont win you a championship. -
How will Red Sox finish the offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to MANNYHOF24's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
point taken. Regardless, I think the sox were making a good move long term for the org by going after tex. Another thing that the tex signing will do is make Youk more difficult to sign. If Youks puts up another .950OPS season while playing GG D, then he might ask for 23 mil a yr -
So when are the Sox going to sign someone?
jacksonianmarch replied to 26 to 7's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I dont think the sox are gonna do much signing. Sheets is gonna get the tires kicked, but someone will offer him 3 yrs and I doubt theo is stupid enough to do that when Buchholz, Bowden and Masterson are MLB ready right now. Smoltz is a pipe dream. He's 41 and just came off reconstructive shoulder surgery, something that no pitcher comes out of unscathed. Penny is a friggin enigma and might be a good one yr reclamation project type signing. But regardless, you have 3 pitchers with high ceilings who are MLB ready, it makes no sense to let them wallow in the minors when they have all reached innings caps that allow them to handle the workload of the #5 slot in the rotation. -
How will Red Sox finish the offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to MANNYHOF24's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Dojji, I think it is easy to take that approach after you lose out on someone. But the obvious goal of the offseason was getting Tex. The sox have a good rotation. Adding Ramirez to Oki and Paps should make the pen solid as well. But the sox obviously have some serious concerns about Papi and Lowell or else they wouldnt have been willing to go to 21 mil a yr for 8 yrs on Tex. That should tell you something. I do expect the sox to have a top 10 lineup next yr and I do expect that they will be in this thing until the end. But considering that they havent upgraded and the Rays are getting more experienced, I do think the gap is still there. And I think it is pretty obvious that the Yankees got much better. That being said, will the yankees stay healthy? Will the sox stay healthy or get their injured players back from disappointing yrs? Will the Rays suffer a hangover? Those will all be answered this upcoming yr. But on paper, the sox were right behind the rays coming into the offseason. They didnt improve and I think the yankees soared past everyone. Right now, the sox are the 3rd best team in the division. And that gets you left home in October. -
Where do you see this team in 3 years?
jacksonianmarch replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Slighly more effective Burnett? In the playoffs until Burnett plays there this yr. But in terms of effectiveness over the entirety of their AL stays, Burnett has been more effective. If you were to say a little more durable Burnett, then I'd agree. But effectiveness, no -
Where do you see this team in 3 years?
jacksonianmarch replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
In 3 yrs? So right before the 2012 season? Gone- Papi, Lowell, Tek, Beckett, Youkilis, Drew, Bay, Papelbon Up and coming- Lars at 1b, either Kalish or Redick in the OF with Ellsbury, and a bunch of moneyball, but low money mercs to fill the holes until the farm fills in the rest. Lester and DiceK leading a rotation filled with Bowden and a bunch of other kids on the list. In 2012, I expect to see a VASTLY different, cheaper and younger sox team. They will reboot and then start to fill in with more mercs later on. The reason why I see Paps gone is because he wants to set a record for closers and the sox dont need to give him 14-15 mil a yr. I also think Youkilis is gone either way. The sox arent willing to pay him long term for what could be a career yr. And if Youkilis replicates his 2008, he wont want to sign long term when he could get Tex money. I also dont see the sox willing to offer CC money to Beckett when they have DiceK and Lester locked up for good money. -
the only way a salary cap is instituted is after a very long work stoppage
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Damage control....How can the Sox move foward this offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to SCM33's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I like the sox lineup. That being said, there is a potential for 3 gaping holes and the potential for 2 other underachievers. 1. Ellsbury- His April and May were great from an OBP standpoint. He walked 27 times in 2 months. But he walked only 14 times from June to the end of the yr. If he does not regain the eye he had at the beginning of the yr, he will be out of the leadoff spot quickly. He cannot steal first base. And if he puts up another .330 or less OBP, then he's a pretty big hole since he delivers next to nothing in terms of power. 2. Pedroia, the MVP. Great player, wish he was on my team. That being said, I doubt he puts up similar power numbers. 73EBH from a guy 5'9 is not going to be the standard with him. That being said, another .320 season with an OPS in the .800+ range should be expected at this point. 3. David Ortiz. If Ortiz reverts to his 1.000OPS+ form, then this lineup will rock. But I think everyone and their mother could see that something was wrong at the end of the yr. His bat looked ridiculously slow. Was it the wrist? The knee? Rust? Age? Weight? Who knows. If he comes back healthy and rips, then he could very well be a potent force again. If he doesnt, then I think this lineup could be in trouble. 4. Kevin Youkilis. Will the real Kevin Youkilis please stand up? After never putting up a .500+ SLG in any full minor or major league season, Youks comes in and puts up a .569. His high prior to that in the bigs was .453 in 07. Is it a fluke? If it isnt, then he adequately protects Papi and makes this lineup solid. If it was a fluke and he comes back to his hig OBP but mid range SLG baseline, then he isnt a #4 hitter and will cause some serious concern in RSN. 5. JD Drew. Solid .880+ OPS player when he plays. Missed a lot of time last yr due to various ailments. If he plays 140 games, the sox should get a solid line with good SLG and OBP out of him 6. Jason Bay. Solid pickup. Subtracting out one bad yr, he is a perennial .370+ OBP and .890+ OPS kind of guy. Assuming he has a good contract yr, he should hit .280 with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI, while reaching base 38-40% of the time. 7. Mike Lowell. Is he healthy? If he is, then he could be a .290/25/100 kind of guy. If he isnt or if father time starts wearing away, he could be a liability. 8. Lugo or Lowrie, either one's are offensive liabilities 9. Catcher- HOLE If everything breaks right, and Ortiz plays well, Youks continues his out of character power surge, Pedroia continues to hit for power, Ellsbury learns to walk, Drew stays healthy and Lowell resurges, then this is a dominant lineup, capable of hanging with the yankees. If not, then this lineup will still be a top 10 in the game, but it wont be as much of an advantage than it has been in the past -
How will Red Sox finish the offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to MANNYHOF24's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I honestly think that the sox are operating like a low budget team this offseason. It is as if their profits just got slashed by 60% when they are selling the highest priced tickets in the game. They went into the Burnett and Tex sweeps concerned about overpaying more than they were concerned about getting the player. Now if you dont truly need the guy, then you can do that. Check the water, kick the tires, make a low ball offer and see what happens. But when you make the assessment that your team needs another solid SP and a big time bat, then you gotta be willing to fork over some money and maybe overpay. It isnt like the sox are the marlins here and one bad, big contract will hamstring them forever. This is the second most profitable organization in the majors and one of the most profitable sports teams in the world. 20 vs 23 mil a season is like taking a couple extra gallons of water out of the ocean. Regardless, I think Theo and Co. will take this as a learning lesson. While he is VERY good at finding low budget talent before it gets pricey (Mueller, Millar, Ortiz, Arroyo), he needs to learn that sometimes you just gotta pay top dollar for a need. We went the extra mile. The Sox did not. And this time, it isnt for a 36 yr old veteran on a 5 yr stupid ass deal. We got 2 28 yr old players at the top of their game and a 32 yr old fireballer at the peak of his game. And the likelihood is, he'll be cursing their name soon enough. I expect the Tex proceedings to change his way of making FA offers. I think Theo might either come right out and blow a team out of the water or make the final offer with an ultimatum to take it or leave it. Cause if Theo came right out and said, Tex, here's 8 yrs 180 mil and you need to sign on the dotted line right now or the deal is gone, then it gets done. -
If Posada cannot catch, then Cash gets a backup gig on a team destined for the playoffs. If Posada can catch, then Cash may just ask for his release
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Damage control....How can the Sox move foward this offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to SCM33's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So you are saying that a perennial 20/20 OFer with 100+RBI for 5 straight yrs and a perennial .370-.400OBP will get a 4th OFer job? Are you really serious? There are a plethora of good teams with high budgets who would love to have Bobby. LAA, NYM, LAD just to name a few. He will land a starting job. He will get a 3 yr, big money deal. You really dont get how the offseason usually goes do you? Once the big money pitcher signs, then the rest of the pitching dominoes fall. Once the big money offensive player signs, the rest of the offensive dominoes fall. You are going to see a flurry of signings after the new yr. Going by your logic, I assume Pat Burrell should be looking for a minor league contract? -
He did EVERYTHING you wanted. You are hereby banned from saying anything negative about Cashman for the forseeable future. He held onto the farm by not going after Johan He signs a pitcher equal in talent, age and durability without having to give up prospects He signs a pitcher who has all the talent in the world to be the #3, assuming he is healthy He signs the best offensive player on the market, filling a huge offensive need. He resigns Marte to keep him as the setup man to Mo He trades a bag of dicks for Swisher, who is a very solid player, capable of OPSing >.850 at multiple positions. And he very likely will resign Pettitte. He has this team loaded from the rotation, to the pen and to the offense. He upgraded the D with Tex being added and if Gardner wins a job in CF, will upgrade there as well. Regardless, he took this team from 3rd place finish to best team in the majors. You no longer have anything to gripe about. AND THE BEST PART, none of the signees are older than 32.
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Damage control....How can the Sox move foward this offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to SCM33's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Bobby Abreu isnt getting a starting gig? Are you crazy or stupid? -
Damage control....How can the Sox move foward this offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to SCM33's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
they were doing a little of that too. But starting the yr with 2 rookie SPs, a rookie setup man, a 3rd yr CFer and 2B, another rookie CF as well as a slew of rookie relievers kinda points in the other direction. It worked in some spots (relief and 2B) and it failed in others (SP and CF). -
Tex and Cano on the right side is a good defensive combo. If we truly wanted to improve the D, Jeter to 3B and Arod to SS would make one hell of a defensive IF. Regardless, we have the best pitching and the best offense. Defense can be allowed to lapse a little bit. Granted, adding a GG 1B can only help
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What a problem to have. 4 OFers, 3 spots and a DH slot. Neither can play the most important position, CF, very well. So, what do we do? Do we deal Nady? I have seen this on a lot of yankee sites. Every yankee fan and his brother is calling for a Nady swap with someone. The problem is, who? Who will take a guy who until 2007 was a righty portion of a platoon? And if so, will it be worth a deal, especially since Nady seems to be getting a lot better? Do we deal Matsui or Damon? I really hope not. Both are on the last legs of a deal. Damon is absolutely necessary for this team as the leadoff man and I dont want him gone. Matsui, when he is healthy, is a formidable offensive player capable of having serious power and patience. When he is unhealthy, he is useless to us. Since he was not healthy last yr, we will likely get nothing of value in return. Do we just flip flop Swisher and Damon between the CF and COF spots? This sounds like the best idea. Swish has a cannon arm, but not good range. Damon has good range but the worst arm in the business. Keep a guy like Gardner on the bench as PR and pinch defender and you are in business.
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How will Red Sox finish the offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to MANNYHOF24's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Jake Peavy was a guy I did not want under any circumstance. His splits show he is an average NL pitcher away from home. He also recorded 6 outs past 7IP. That shows a lack of durability in the worst league in baseball. Move him out of Petco, into a short porch stadium like Fenway or Yankee Stadium and you are talking about a 180IP 4+ ERA guy at 15-22 mil after dealing away 2 top tier prospects and 2 B level guys. Peavy is not the right move -
How will Red Sox finish the offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to MANNYHOF24's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
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Damage control....How can the Sox move foward this offseason?
jacksonianmarch replied to SCM33's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
all I gotta say is that the sox off season plans have taken a major blow. Now, it is up to Papi's wrist to heal and for a scary #4 hitter to emerge behind him. It is also now up to the sox rotation to get by on last yrs holdovers rather than a new, flame throwing pitcher. The sox two highest priority objects are in pinstripes. In terms of what they are gonna do. Hmm, well they are kinda f***ed. The C market is pathetic. Kottaras may get a shot, and why the hell not. He is a better hitter than Vtek right now. Maybe you sign Vtek and then let him know that he signed on part time. In terms of the rest of the offense, Lowell and Papi now get no help and need to return to form, or the sox are stuck. AND, now they get to deal with a pissed off Lowell who took less yrs and money to stay in Boston and was one day away from packing his things. I see the sox kicking the tires on Sheets, but someone will be willing to go to 3 yrs with him and I dont think that will be the sox. I could see them in on Smoltz too, but a 41 yr old guy coming off reconstructive shoulder surgery is not the best option. Especially since he has never played in the AL. Lowe looks to be signing with the Mets right now. And after that, you get the Oliver Perez's, Randy Wolf's, and Paul Byrd's of the league. Slim pickings and they will all be pricey. That being said, the sox will be a good team next yr. But I could see them taking the 2008 yankees path. Build from within, hope an older, injured team can return to form and see if the holes can be filled internally. Only in the sox case, I still see them in the playoffs ( I expect a Ray hangover this yr). -
why should I care? I go to one game a yr and MLB extra innings will be the same regardless. I want them to put the best product on the field, regardless of the cost.
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If someone ever gets through to him, he will be absolutely nasty.
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Once the big fish sign, the rest soon follow. That is how you gauge the market. So Tex signs for 23 mil a yr, well, my guy is at least 2/3 as valuable as tex so he should get 15 mil a yr. You get the picture. Abreu will find a nice new home elsewhere. I think we decided that we'd either upgrade on D (with Swisher at 1B and Nady in RF who isnt great but is better than Abreu on D or Tex at 1b and Swish in RF) or go with an upgrade on the O with similar D (Manny over Abreu). And now that the yankees are going balls out on FAs, I understand their logic for not offering arb to Abreu. 1. If we nab either Manny or Tex, then Abreu accepting arb would suck. We wouldnt have a place for him AND we'd be on the hook for 16-18 mil + 40% of lux tax. 2. There is a rule about the amount of Type A FAs you can sign. The first absolute rule is that you can sign up to as many Type A's as you have lost. That would be one definite for us. Then the rest is determined by how many FAs declared for free agency. I remember hearing in a prior blog post on a yankee site that if Abreu leaves, we can get a max of 5 type A FAs (our 3 type A FAs plus two more based upon the amount of FAs ho filed). Marte and Pettitte would be 2 of them. Now AJ and CC are in the fold. Then one last one which could be Manny, Tex, etc. SO if it were Abreu, then we'd have to end our pursuit of Manny and Tex.
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they are about to finalize a long term deal with Doumit. He goes nowhere
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Yankees to make huge offer to Burnett
jacksonianmarch replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Other Baseball
cmon now. How is that a trollish post? Its a retort to trollishness.

