jacksonianmarch

It is an academic conversation. The sox could muster their way into the POs in a 50 game season if it started July 1 and went to Oct 1. Lots more variability with a shorter sample size, higher chance they have Sale and Erod from the rip. But for a 162? Is it even worth saying the sox "should be better". The sox suck right now. The process of rebuilding the franchise doesnt include top tier FAs and the farm capital isnt there to rebuild AND support a major trade. So whether the sox go from a .400 team to a .450 team is entirely academic. Also, one of your major upgrades is an FA after 2021 in ERod. Very strong chance he isnt around for the whole season because he is donning another uniform.

Perez vs the RH bashers in Toronto and NY. Oh boy, looking forward to that

You do realize the DJ signing is being widely considered by MLB pundits as a stroke of genius, right?

Severino came back from his teres strain hitting 100mph before he blew out his elbow. He is also 5 years younger than Sale with far less wear on his tires. In terms of predictions... Sevy will have a 4ish ERA on the whole by the end of the year. He will return in late June, early July and be up and down before having a pretty solid September and heading into the POs with momentum Montgomery will be fully healthy for 2021. He will start at least 25 games, his ERA will be in the low to mid 4's and he will average a touch over 5IP per start Garcia and Schmidt are the two blue chippers that will get some chances in the rotation. Garcia has the deeper arsenal, Schmidt has more power. One of them will lock down a rotation spot, although "locking down" will not be as an ace level producer, not yet. I think we see a mid 4's ERA from the better of them who locks down the rotation. One off the cuff prediction here is that whomever doesn't get a lot of innings will end up a really solid pen option down the stretch. Another addendum to this is whomever does lock down the spot will start off 2021 gangbusters and fade late German, no f***ing clue. His head was just as big a problem as his ability to de-escalate a domestic dispute. He even posted a goodbye to baseball while serving his suspension. His stuff is elite. His control is top notch. His command is not as evidenced by his 1.9HR/9 in 2019.

I will give you some stone cold locks, JM style! 1. Sale will return healthy around the ASB, but his velocity will never get back to what it was pre-shoulder injury. He will be an effective starter and should toe the slab in 2022 from opening day onward. His production will be more in the 3-4WAR arena than the 7+ WAR area he occupied when he was throwing smoke. 2. ERod will struggle with his conditioning for a lot longer than most starters do. He will post his high level velocity early in starts and it will fade come the middle innings. He will go from a 200+IP starter from 2019 and will likely be more a 5IP and shower guy for most of the season. If his health dictates it, you will see him start to get deeper into games come late June into July, just in time for the sox to deal him for a prospect haul 3. Eovaldi will have one month where he is absolutely dominant, 1.5 months where he is absolutely terrible, 1.5 months where he is tolerable and will spend two months on the IL or "skipping starts" with various ailments. If the dominant month is early, the sox might be able to pawn him off on some sucker and get out from the 22 commitment 4. JD will make a mild rebound, but he looked pretty cooked in 2020. His inability to use video seemed to hurt him and his bat looked really, really slow. You may see a rebound to the .800OPS range, but the days of seeing him as an elite offensive force seem to be over 5. Beni will be on another team come opening day 6. Devers will have an all star caliber year 7. Vaz's 2020 was his career best OPS. It also came with a .341BABIP and a 3% absolute rise in his K rate. He will perform worse than 2020 8. Chavis will hit 15 homeruns in 2021 if he plays enough, but will post a poor OPS and will be a benchwarmer or minor leaguer by the ASB Let's look at something else you are missing. JBJ is gone. He quietly put up a 1.4WAR in a 50 game season. Mitch Moreland and his 1.2WAR in 22 games is gone. Now Moreland wasnt gonna keep up that pace, but he definitely helped. Dalbec slides in for Moreland and will he be more exposed as the team's 1b? He did pop 8 homers in basically a month, but he K'd 39 times in 80AB (49% of his AB's). His BABIP was nearly .400. He makes Aaron Judge look like a contact hitter. Houck was billed as a reliever because he has essentially two pitches and his command leaves a lot to be desired. I also think Houck starts 2021 in the minors so Bloom can monkey with his service time. Renfroe is a good bet to bounceback, IMO, especially at Fenway. Brandon Workman is gone. Heath Hembree is gone. Now Hembree and Workman weren't world beaters in 2020, but they were previously reliable pen arms. You've got nothing back there now. DHern and Barnes with maybe Smith (who knows if he is any good). The rest of the pen is horrendous with no help in sight in the farm system. Strong likelihood they will rely on the pen heavily with ERod being eased in, Sale being eased in once he is back, Perez being a 5IP pitcher at best and the rest of the rotation being a pile of goo Ultimately, I do think the sox can improve on their .400 win percentage, especially since ERod will occupy a slot in their rotation for most of the year and Sale should return for at least half the season. When you aren't having AAAA pitchers throwing every day, you tend to run into more wins. But as currently constructed, this sox team is no better than a 75-80 win squad. That might be generous, but it also has to do with the fact that the AL is down

Big market teams rarely find themselves in the scorched earth scenario that DD left them in while also staring up at 3 in division teams vastly better, deeper and with more farm assets . Also, Henry has never annually operated as a big market owner. He always seems to find a way to pull back and rebuild. And each time he has rebuilt, it has borne fruit. He just never had as daunting a rebuild ahead of him.

Right now, the Yanks are the odds on favorites to represent the AL in the WS. I'd say followed very closely by the White Sox. Most of this is due to the migration of major talent from the AL to the NL, but it is still true.

I said team, you know, the one that is getting the equivalent of a lottery selection in June and hasnt made any measurable improvements?

I will be really annoyed if this is true. $4 mil for a better known and healthier commodity. Kluber isnt a power pitcher either, so it isnt like we are getting a guy with better stuff.

How is your team?

Chatham dealt to Philly for a PTNBL

I should stop? You’re the one who thinks the 4th worst team in baseball will magically rebound into playoff contention without any major additions either via farm, trade or FA. Bloom’s moves will bear fruit. I’ve given you the timeline whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you. 2020 was a tear down. 2021 is in the farm talent acquisition. 22 is minor additions or developmental additions. 23 you start adding big pieces externally and make a run at the POs. 24 you’re a WS contender.

Cincy looks at his 2020 and sees a guy taking off into the stratosphere. Other teams see a hot 1/3 of a season and are rightly not willing to make the sacrifice. There’s a big difference here. Graded over a full season, Castillo’s 2020 translates to 7+ WAR. You give up a lot more for a 7WAR pitcher than you do for a 3 WAR pitcher

Could be, but you have to remember that your GM is a value oriented team builder in a year where he’s not actively trying to compete. Building Chavis’ value will be more important than a D first gap filler

Chavis destroys breaking balls. Demolishes them. He loves off speed pitches. There were far more “crafty” pitchers around in the 80s-90s

Also, if you want to rebuild value, there’s no bigger stage than Yankee stadium. If he goes into Yankee stadium, shows he’s healthy, and performs well, he will position himself for a big payday in 22

Reds demanded Gleyber plus a prospect haul and the Yanks blinked. Closest thing for the Sox is Verdugo. You’re not moving Verdugo for Castillo, that’s be dumb

Exactly. That’s why he’s likely your starting 2b. If he can get hot for a couple months, he will be worth more at a defense minus position.

Chavis also became irrelevant once teams saw his weaknesses. His weakness doesn’t translate to the league right now. Can’t hit high end velo. Can’t hit anything fast and up in the zone. Take him and put him in the league 30 years ago and he’s an MVP candidate

When he came up, that was the hope. Either he, Ockimey or Dalbec would be the answer at 1b. Chavis has flopped. Ockimey isn’t the answer. Dalbec is the last hope before they fill the position externally. Dalbec, though, comes with good defensive chops at another position too

They’re not going to make rash decisions. They’re committed to a rebuild

Dalbec replaced Chavis as the hope for the next home grown power hitter.

Blooms successes will be measured in 24-25. If the Sox aren’t title contenders and built to sustain by then, then he’s a failure

Kluber will either be good, diminished or hurt. If he’s either of the last two categories, he’s gone

The Sox were the fourth worst team in baseball last year. They’ve got no MLB ready farm. They’ve made no measurable improvements. They’re not acting like they’re playoff contenders. They’re not making the playoffs