At the time of his signing, it was fair market value for a guy who OPS'd close to .900. The biggest issue I had with the deal was the fact that he just didnt stay healthy. And while he has certainly not been an iron horse, he has stayed healthy much more than I thought he would.
Now in terms of retrospectively viewing the signing. Well, there are a couple ways one must look at it. Most of these deals that sign players into their late 30s are typically made by one of two measures. The first measure is their initial performance. Most teams will pay a player for a long term deal, expecting them to significantly contribute at the beginning of the deal while trailing off towards the end. The second is the unrealistic at time expectation that a player can sustain a performance into their post prime yrs
Well, Drew's 2007 was a pretty horrible yr by his standards. Yes, he had a good playoff series, but if you paid players for their playoff performance only, you would run a lot of Mark Lempke's out there. Drew was paid for to be a middle of the order bat and a guy who can get on base. He got on base, but at a bit less of a level than his career numbers would suggest. But the 2007 power outage was the biggest change for Drew. A guy who has SLG's consistently in the .500 range, to drop to .423 was unheard of.
So for yr 1, he was significantly overpaid.
On to yr two. Now, in yr two, Drew did have a good amount of missed games. But, he hit 8 more homers in 31 less games and had an OPS well over his career numbers. So, even though he was injured for a larger part of the yr, his production was well worth the contract.
So for yr 2, contract deserved, although fragile
On to yr three. This season, he is seeing his lowest BA in a full season of his career at this point. He is also slipping in terms of power. Not sure why, but the .448SLG would be the third lowest of his career, behind yr 1 in Boston and one of his seasons in StL. His IsoPatience is actually up from his career mark, but the BA is dragging down his overall OBP. And his OPS at .816 would be the third lowest of his career as well.
Thus far in yr 3, he is overpaid.
So if you look at it like that, then thus far, he is not earning his contract from an offensive POV. And to be honest with you, the defensive argument is valid, but if all they wanted was D, you'd see some skinny jackrabbit out there rather than lumbering JD. That being said, a guy who OPS's over .800 is significantly useful. So while I certainly wouldnt pin everything on JD, he thus far, has not earned the contract. AND, seeing as he will be playing out his yr 34 and yr 35 seasons after this in a sox uni, I would not expect to see the lofty prime JD Drew numbers in those yrs either. This is beginning to look like a "bad contract" but the player is still useful and should still be in RF for the sox for the next 2 yrs.