You can continue to pick your matchups all you want. The fact is, 1-3 Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte can stack up with anyone's top 3. Hughes and Mariano are better than anyone's 8-9 punch in the bullpen. And our offense will roll with anyone's pitching. Put that together with probable home field in a stadium where the yankees are a ridiculous 50-22, and you have to say that NY is the favorite. Now, as we all know, that doesnt guarantee s***. But any predictions of them getting steamrolled in the early going are nothing but homerism.
Going team by team, I have to say that Detroit is the weakest. They do have a nice 1-2 punch of Verlander and Jackson, but Verlander really is the big #1. Jackson is still wild at times and easily waited out by a patient team. After those two, you run into a rookie in Porcello, and a guy who has been miserable since coming to Detroit in Washburn. Also, they have a bullpen that has been porous through the yr and also is missing their most important piece in Zumaya. Their offense is centered around 2 guys in Granderson and Cabrera, and as a whole has been incredibly disappointing.
The Angels are actually the second weakest team IMO, in the AL. Not based on record, mind you, but based on what they have become. Over the yrs, when they would steamroll us out of the playoffs, their starting pitching would be good and their bullpen would be completely and totally stacked. That is no longer the case in the pen, but the rotation remains strong. Lackey remains their ace and is starting to pitch like one. Weaver and Kazmir get to slot in as the #2 and #3 and Saunders has been an inconsistent #4. But their bullpen, the crux of their postseason success has crumbled. KRod is gone. Shields is out for the yr. Fuentes is in, and while he has saved a bunch of games, he has really been a middle of the road reliever with the ERA over 4. And there are a bunch of inconsistent guys in the middle. Their biggest improvement has been the offense with Morales and Hunter stepping into the middle of the order, and Vlady falling back a bit due to injury. Regardless, their offense can hang with NY and Boston. Their starting pitching can hang up front with Boston and 1-3 with NYY. But their bullpen no longer has that lock down quality that they used to have, which was the absolute dagger that they could throw into the hearts of NY.
Boston and NY are the top two teams in the AL, and this is after the sox slipped from that ranking for a short period of time around the AS break when their pitchers went down like flies and the offense hibernated. They are 1 and 2 in run differential. Both teams clobber opponents in their venues (1 and 2 in Home records). Both teams have a rather good 1-2 punch for the playoffs. Both teams have the lights out October closer. And both teams have offenses that score.
So, to expound on my predictions....
ALE winner- NYY
ALC winner- DET
ALW winner- LAA
ALWC winner- BOS
First round- NYY def DET 3-1
NY with the home field and pretty much the full team advantage should take this series based on the overwhelming offensive advantage and the bullpen advantage. I would assume we split the first 2 games but close it out in Detroit with Sabathia on the hill
First round- BOS def LAA 3-2
The sox will have to lean heavily on their top 2 in this series IMO. They have sucked on the road this yr, but they always seem to play LAA tough in any venue. My prediction is based on Boston taking 1 of 2 in Anaheim with Lackey outlasting Beckett and the sox team sleeping through one of the games on the road. My prediction also assumes that Saunders is outlasted in game 4 in Boston with Kazmir winning game 3 vs Buchholz and the sox sending Beckett to the hill in game 5 with everything on the line.
Second Round- NYY def BOS 4-3
Home field advantage comes into play something fierce in this one. We can hit Beckett. We havent been hitting Lester, but outlasting him. We can hit Buchholz and any other slop you throw out there. Its gonna be a war, predicting individual games is gonna be a waste cause nothing ever comes out the way it should. But, this time around, the home field will make all the difference. I think it ends with Pettitte facing off vs Buchholz in game 7 and a possible long game going deep into the night. Would it be any other way?