jacksonianmarch

I absolutely, 100% hope you deal him. Paps is the best reliever in sox history. Even though he has lost his untouchable title, he still converts almost all of his saves and is a big reason why the sox win as much as they do. If you deal him and then rely on a guy like Bard, who btw is no stranger to the long ball, then you will lose more games, no matter who you get back.

Phillies in 6

this has been one hell of a game

The reason why I overlook the Dodgers is because their rotation is not a good playoff rotation vs a good lineup. Kershaw, while a dominant pitcher, runs up a ton of pitches. And against NY or LAA, he'll reach 100 pitches after 5 innings. Wolf is a NL pitcher who also works big pitch counts. We absolutely drill Padilla. And Billingsley is just like Kershaw, except he is on a cold streak. The only team I am truly concerned about facing out of the NL is Philly. Lee, Hamels, and Happ will give our lineup problems in both Philly and NY. And that lineup can hit anyone.

Jason Giambi continues to help his former team. If the Rocks can bounce the Phils, then the only obstacle is Anaheim.

Fowler is one hell of an athlete, and he didnt even make contact with Utley

I, for one, think he is well worth it in the AL. But I figure I should put some differing perspectives on here. Hell, I'd take Bay in LF at the stadium

The Phillies are going to be a pretty stiff roadblock in the world series.

because regional affiliation could theoretically put you in yankee or met territory. I was born into a Mets family but rebelled because I was a Strawberry fan and when he left after the 1990 season, I hated the Mets for it (I was 9). I was always a big Cal Ripken fan, but I just didnt like the Orioles, ever. So, I just watched the games for a season before becoming a yankee fan thanks to Don Mattingly. Being a 1B myself, I liked him and wanted to be like him. So, thats how I became a Yankee fan. I always thought they were terrible seeing as the Mets won a WS in 86 and went to one in 88 while the yankees did nothing in the 80s. Then, as I got older, I learned about their history and it confirmed my choice.

this is a good article on the landmine that could be Jason Bay. Interesting read http://ussmariner.com/2009/10/08/sorry-jason-we-dont-want-you/

he said keep it civil. GAWD!!

Why dont you come to the dark side... http://imagecache5.art.com/p/LRG/15/1567/SIYDD00Z/new-york-yankees.jpg

you want another injury/rehab/"low risk" NL player? How bout John Smoltz or Brad Penny? I hear they are available

that doesnt include the options and the arbitration increases

Well, the days off are after game 2, after game 4, and after game 5. If Sabathia goes game 1, 4, and 7, then he will only go on 3 days rest on game 4. I guess it depends on how hard he works for game 1 and where we are sitting. If we are up 3-0 for game 4, I guarantee Gaudin pitches. If we arent, then it probably means CC goes game 4 on 3 days rest then game 7 on full rest. 1- Sabathia 2- Burnett day off 3- Pettitte 4- Sabathia - 3 days rest day off 5- Burnett day off 6- Pettitte 7- Sabathia

The question would be, how much are the sox willing to spend. Right now if you compare the salaries from April 3, 2009 to the projected team set on April 3,2010, then: They save 7mil with Bay's contract ending They add 7.7 mil with VMart being there the whole yr They save 2 mil on Vtek assuming he re-ups with his player option They save 5 mil with Smoltz gone They save 5 mil with Penny gone They save 2 mil without Saito That's a net savings of 13.3mil without considering the pay increases for Ellsbury, Papelbon, Okajima, and Ramirez. So, lets say Ellsbury gets a 1.5 mil raise, Papelbon gets a 2.5 mil raise, Okajima will probably see a 1 mil raise and Ramirez will probably see something similar as well. That puts the savings at 7.3 mil Then consider the LF position: Bay or Holliday cost, lets say for arguments sake 16 mil per yr AAV Lackey costs 17 mil per yr AAV Felix gets traded for and signs a new contract in the 15 mil a yr AAV (seeing as the sox would have the leverage of buying out his last 2 arb yrs). Thats a salary increase of $40.7 mil. That's a lot of dough to increase your spending on prior to the season starting. And when you consider the current payroll of $122mil, thats a 33% increase in operating cost for one season. I highly doubt they go this way.

Did I say they were done winning? No. I said they wont be the same. They very well could win it all next season, especially if they make a few key moves this offseason. But it just isnt the same driving force behind the team.

I said nothing about juicing. I dont care about juicing, remember?

Undoubtedly, the sox will at least be kicking the tires on Lackey, so seeing as I made a topic about Bay's and Holliday's contractual projections, maybe I should do the same with Lackey. Will be 31 for the entirety of 2010 102-71 W/L record Ace of the Angels 3.81 career ERA 1.30 career WHIP 2009 line- 11-8 3.83ERA 1.27WHIP Lets try and look for some comparisons out there. The most logical and most recent one would be AJ Burnett. Burnett came off a more impressive season strikeout wise and wins wise, but Lackey's WHIP was a bit lower and Lackey has the extensive playoff resume. In terms of durability, Lackey had 5 straight seasons of 198IP plus. Now, he is coming off two yrs where injury has hindered the beginning of his season. One was an arm issue and another was a lower body issue. Regardless, none of them are lingering right now. And, when considering Burnett, one must always think about Burnett's injury history prior to signing this contract. Lackey, on the whole, doesnt have that problem. AND, Lackey will be a yr younger when he signs a deal. Another guy to compare him to would be Kevin Millwood (5yrs 65 mil contract). Now there is a reason why comparisons seem to be lacking. A lot of pitchers get locked up early, so the big time FA pitchers at a young age dont seem to be happening at all. And therefore, a lot of pitchers who hit the market end up being past their second contracts, IE, mid to late 30s. I wont consider Lackey in the same ilk as Sabathia or Santana, that's just disingenuous. But, Lackey compares rather favorably to Burnett, and due to age, lack of significant durability issues and proven top of the rotation status, I think Lackey will get a lot more. Also, consider that the other viable options aside from Lackey are lacking and a LOT of teams need pitching. So, in terms of the FA market, Lackey is gonna get a shitload of money. So, lets consider AJs 5yr 82 mil deal. That is 16.4mil a yr. Well, Lackey is a yr younger, so make that a 6 yr deal. Then consider that in a fair market, Lackey gets an AAV of 17 mil. That comes out to 6yrs 102 mil. That is a fair price for a durable, proven pitcher in his prime. But now consider that Boston, NYM, maybe NYY, CHC, LA, and other big market clubs will be looking for pitching, then his price could go higher. There wont be discounts here ladies and gents. This is gonna be a big time signing for big time money

just read the article. Its more about the strength that Manny and Ortiz lent to the sox than the sox "never being the same". Maybe I should change the title. But I agree with him. The sox strength when they were unbeatable was the 3-4 of that lineup. It changed the game in so many ways and made them seem invincible when the chips were down. Now, Manny is gone and Papi is a shell of himself. With those two out of the picture, Theo has collected a better lineup 1-9, but they dont come close to replicating what Manny and David did back in the 5 yr stretch of 2003-2007

This was an incredibly good read from ESPNBoston. I agree wholeheartedly, what Manny and Ortiz did from 03-07 will never be duplicated in Boston and they were the heart and soul of that franchise, making them impossible to extinguish.

The Yankees will be another dark horse in the negotiations since they have both a DH spot and a LF spot up for grabs. So even if NY is only in it to drive up the price, I have to believe that they will drive up the price. And even with the economic climate we are in, baseball had another record breaking season in terms of attendance. And while some ballclubs are going into chapter 11 (the cubs and the dbacks), a lot of the bigger market teams are thriving. So no, I do not think his value will be hindered by the economy, cause as the saying always says, it takes just one team to make that offer. And I do think that the Mets are a serious contender for both. They need two OF positions filled with Beltran in CF and s*** at the corners. i wouldnt be surprised if they honestly and truly made a run at both players.

As for Jason Bay, lets look at the tale of the tape Will be 31 for the majority of 2010, so consider 31 to be his age Career line- .280/.376/.519 for a .895OPS 2009 line- .267/.384/.537 for a .921OPS He's very durable, playing in over 150 games 4 out of the last 5 yrs (2007 he played 145 games). He plays below average D in LF, but at home, he plays the wall well and is a serviceable fielder. He isnt an option in RF anymore due to his lack of range. He actually does steal bases, albeit this is more about his baserunning awareness than pure speed. In terms of comparisons on FA markets, you are going to see the same kinds of comparisons with Holliday. Bay has not been as good of a hitter over his career, although if you subtract Bay's dismal 2007, they are really close. Holliday is a yr and a half younger, has more speed, plays better D and can play both corner OF positions well. So, Holliday's price tag should be higher, but it shouldnt be astronomically higher So, if I put Holliday's contract at 7yrs 112 mil, or an AAV of 16 mil per season with a vesting option for 18 mil, then you should probably subtract 1-2 mil per yr from that contract and subtract 1 yr. So, for Bay, I would put his contract at 6yrs 90mil with a 7th yr vesting option for 17 million dollars. That puts him ahead of JD Drew's contract and right at the AAV of Ordonez's contract.

Lets drop the "he downt wike da presha" argument. These guys are going to take money and yrs over environment and if its close, then they will go with the better environment for them. Lets start with Holliday: He turns 30 this offseason His career line is .318/.387/.545 for a .932OPS His 2009 line was .313/.394/.515 for a .909OPS His 2009 line was brought down by a dismal experience in the expanse in Oakland while languishing in last place. Since being infused into a playoff race, he put up a .353/.419/.604 line for a 1.023OPS. he can play both OF positions well (minus that one big error) and brings speed with his other skills (80SBs in 5 seasons). So, this guy is a top tier performer who brings 5 tools to the table and is entering the prime of his career. The last guy with his resume at a young age to hit the market was Teixeira, and you saw what he fetched. JD Drew prior to his deal with Boston was a similar performer, albeit his exodus from the dodgers and his durability made his situation a bit more dicey. Magglio Ordonez was also very similar when he signed, but durability was also an issue since he was coming off an experimental knee surgery. He signed for 5yr 75 mil with 2 options that will make it a 7yr 105mil contract, and both options are likely to vest. So, if we consider JD Drew as the low point as Drew is the cheapest of the three and had issues come up on his physicial, then 5yrs 70 mil should be the low point. Then consider that Holliday will be younger than both Ordonez and Drew, AND he has much more speed and has no durability issues and you are probably looking at Ordonez's AAV being the minimum salary here. Then consider one other confounder, the Soriano signing in 2006. He signed for 8yrs at 136mil at the same age. Now Soriano was more of a speed threat, but is much worse in the OF and has been a worse hitter (OPS wise) than Holliday. So, where does that leave us? Tex is the better player when compared to Holliday mostly due to Tex's insane patience, better power, switch hitting, and age (he was a yr and a half younger at the time of his FA compared to Holliday's). So maybe Tex's contract is a ceiling at 8yrs 180million dollars. I would say that JD Drew's 5yrs 70 mil is a starting point AAV wise. And Ordonez's 7yrs 105mil contract and Soriano's 8yr 136million dollar contract are good middle points. I would have to say that Boras is going to get 7 yrs out of someone with a likely vesting option for an 8th since he is only 29 (turns 30 in 3 months). So lets say that, to sign Holliday, the sox would need to offer 7yrs $112mil with a vesting option for 18 mil on yr 8. Would that be too much? Too little? I dunno, but that is where I put his figure at. Sorry for the double post, it fits better here