You know, Imperial kinda prompted me to put this out there, so why not. The 2010 season is upon us and aside from some position battles in spring training the roster seems pretty set.
Projected Roster
1. Posada C
2. Cervelli C
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Cano 2B
5. Jeter SS
6. Rodriguez 3B
7. Pena SS
8. Gardner OF
9. Granderson OF
10. Swisher OF
11. Winn OF
12. Thames OF
13. Johnson DH
14. Sabathia SP
15. Burnett SP
16. Pettitte SP
17. Vazquez SP
18. Chamberlain SP
19. Hughes SU
20. Rivera CL
21. Robertson MR
22. Marte MR
23. Aceves MR
24. Gaudin LR
25. Melancon MR
I'll break it down position by position later in the thread, but for right now, here is the prediction. The Yankee offense will score 900+ runs for a second season in a row. Their offense will carry them through rough starts by the starters and allow them to win games that they had no right winning in the first place. They should also be able to battle good pitchers and absolutely work over the mediocre to bad ones. The big changes to the offense being three-fold. Brett Gardner replaces Melky at the bottom of the lineup, which actually has the probability of being an upgrade due to Gardner's eye and lightning speed. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui leave and we add Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson. Johnson in the #2 hole will be an improvement over Damon solely based on OBP as long as he can remain healthy. But as a full time DH, that shouldnt be too much to ask. The big story will be Granderson. Coming off an off season where he still hit 30 homers, the big question will be which Grandy will be showing up? The one that swooned towards the back half of 2009 and couldnt hit lefties? Or the dynamic hitter from 2007-2008 who went for the quad 20 (20 homers, 20 triples, 20 doubles, 20SBs). If he can regain some of that spark, he'll be a dynamic player and might supplant Johnson in the #2 hole. Regardless, even if they perform exactly like they did last yr, it's only a mild downgrade overall. But if they improve upon their down seasons, they have a chance to be major upgrades in youth and dynamic capability.
The rotation will be vastly improved. Joba will be in season 2 of his starting pitching transformation which should lend to a bit more consistency and a bit more length. Javy Vazquez replaces the shitstorm we had in the #5 hole from last yr after Wang went down. Adding a perennial 200K and 200IP starter to replace a slot in the rotation that had a near 6ERA and averaged under 5IP is absolutely huge. He could pitch like he did with the CWS and still be immensely valuable. But last season shows that Javy may have turned a corner, so we shall see. Pettitte in the rotation might end up being a great addition or a critical weakness. He revamped himself last yr improving his K rates and proving to be ever durable. The question is, will he be able to consistently get outs as the velocity tumbles further or will be falter. We'll see. I actually expect improvements over Burnett and Sabathia. Sabathia started off horribly in April then put up CY numbers after that, including the playoffs where he was magnificent. Burnett had runs where he looked like a CY winner and then runs where you had to scratch your head. Overall a mediocre season for him, will a second yr in pinstripes lend more consistency to this guy a la his time in Toronto. Regardless, this rotation is loaded to bear. 4 strikeout pitchers and 4 pitchers who have shown the ability to consistently reach the 200IP mark (well, the last 2 yrs with Burnett, but the comment remains for the rest). Couple that with the offense and this team should be able to sustain significant winning streaks against some of the weaker teams in the bigs. And some teams really did get weaker.
On to the pen, last yr for one month they were record setting in their badness. After a complete overhaul, their youth matured into a pretty dominant bullpen. Anchored by old reliable, Mariano Rivera, what time has taken away in velocity, he has added to with baseball IQ, improved location and even more bite. Everyone wonders when he'll fall, but after putting up another career season for the future HOFer, predicting his demise might be a fool's job. The good thing is, he has help coming into a season for once. Phil Hughes should be his primary assistant after a successful campaign as the most dominant regular season setup man in 2009. He was absolutely dominant in that role and should slide back in for 2010. Adding to the riches in the back end, Damaso Marte looks to be back to his typical form after a very strong playoff run. If he's healthy, NY will be able to feature a 1-2-3 punch at the back end of the pen that few teams will have. To complement the crew is Alfredo Aceves, the guy who throws middle of the road stuff out there but gets outs and doesnt make stupid mistakes. He's the swing guy. David Robertson will try to work his way into the setup role after a very promising 2009 campaign. And the new guy, Mark Melancon should be ready to start ascending to the back of the pen as well (he's my sleeper pick for future Yankee closer). Overall, this pen should be primed to be one of the best and the great part about it is that its almost entirely home grown (Marte was an original Yankee prospect who we traded for Enrique Wilson).
So, after a quick rundown, I think the Yankees run away with the division and probably ease off the brake at the end to make the finish respectable. My guess is anywhere from 98-103 wins.
As for the playoffs, its anyone's game and it really depends on how the rotation gels together. If Vazquez shows up and moves into a highly respected and counted upon role, then this rotation could go up against anyone's. The hope is that we wont have to go to the 3 man rotation again for the playoffs. But we definitely will be back in the playoffs in 2010.