Bosoxwest

But, is that difference > the difference in their price? That's the big question for me.

Cora is a solid, smart bench player - it's been speculated the Sox are grooming him for a coaching position. Obviously you don't want him get 250 ABs a year like he did last year, but he plays both middle IF positions and really doesn't hurt you that badly. $2M might be a little much, but it's probably worth a few hundred K to the FO not to have to spend time recruiting a UtIF when they've got bigger fish to fry. Also, Tito loves Cora.

Could be that. Considering he's almost a mortal lock to spend the entire year on the farm, it doesn't really matter. He's just stat fodder.

I'm beginning to think more and more that trading Manny is predicated on signing Drew. Drew, if he actually stays on the field, would provide Papi some protection. He is easily capable of putting up a .900-1.000 OPS. I'm not really very pro-Drew, but I suspect this is the thinking.

Tidbit from Cafardo I missed till today: All of the potential closers on the market from Danys Baez, Eric Gagne, who probably won't throw until January, are risks, while Justin Speier's price tag is rising which might scare some teams. The Sox want a lefty and will have to decide whether Scott Schoeneweis' success in the NL with the Reds would translate to the AL, where he hasn't been as effective. I am really hoping they figure out a way to get this done without Gagne.

Well, the LOB% is definitely trending down, but you may be right, he could have just had a real bad off year due to confidence problems. My sideline concern is that he's pitching through something, a la Clement. I'd want a very thorough examination with some imaging. Certainly, his upside is dominance. I'd still prefer Wheeler though. Haha. So much for Nixon vs. Drew. Sorry dopes.

I completely agree with the analysis on why the HR/9 jumped, but it's the three-year decline that bothers me. I don't think we can pin it all on the HR rate, since the total number increased is just 5 from 2005-2006. He gave up an additional 26 R in only 8 more innings last year than in 2005. His FIP jumped by a full run. LOB% declined by 15%, after a 7% drop the year prior - that's the one that scares you. I'm concerned last year doesn't look like an aberration so much as a trend. Granted, pitching in that bandbox can't be great for your confidence, so maybe that is the solution here. Since the peripherals are still pretty good and it's the actual performance that is hurting, it could be that he is just mentally not there and can't make the pitches he needs to when it counts. I just worry about overpaying (figuratively) for a guy who's maybe in decline, and whose out pitch (slider) is notoriously hard on the arm. That said, if it's Lidge or Linebrink, I'll take Lidge faster than you can say Giambi's Needle. Here's the report card on Lidge from a good Astros blog: http://blog.kir.com/archives/003505.asp Brad Lidge: F Lidge (5.28 ERA/-6 RSAA) was one of the worst pitchers on the Stros pitching staff this season. It's not difficult to understand why -- he simply has lost his ability to throw his devastating slider for strikes consistently. As a result, hitters are laying off Lidge's slider and laying into his fastball, which Lidge does not locate well. Ever since his breakout performance in 2004 (26 RSAA), Lidge has been trending steadily downward (only an 8 RSAA over the past two seasons). The more consistent Wheeler now has a better RSAA than Lidge over the past three seasons and should be the closer going into the 2007 season. Although his trade value has plummeted over the past year, the Stros should definitely listen to reasonable offers for Lidge. It is looking less likely with each passing season that he will ever regain his dominating 2004 level of performance.

I would disagree that Wily Mo tried to put everything out last year, at least all the time. He hit over .300, 40+ points higher than his previous average, and his slugging and HR/9 were his lowest. I think he made strides in going with the pitch, and in general I think offensively he will become a powerhouse if given the chance. The Ks will always be an issue, but that usually comes with power. If his eye improves that is no issue. His defense is atrocious in right, but could probably improve. However, I don't see them taking a chance on that, given the Drew rumors. I don't really see Manny being moved, but I suppose that is a possible scenario. If so, then WMP could no doubt learn to be passable in left, although with the cannon on his right shoulder it's sort of a waste. First base is probably a little too cerebral for the Super Genius, though.

If this is true then either Wily Mo or Manny is getting dealt, and I think we all would guess WMP is the logical choice, especially in light of the rumors. It's pretty certain he won't be kept as a 4th outfielder, given his limited improvement in that role. Either he plays every day to (maybe) realize his potential, or he's a wasted spot.

Not too fired up about this. Much rather see Wheeler coming back. Linebrink is on the wrong side of 30 and declined pretty significantly last year. He beat up on the weak and got rapped around by the strong, including his divisional rivals. An xFIP of 4.14 in the weakest division in all of baseball doesn't strike me as worth either Pena or Crisp.

Right now Wheeler is the best of the bunch. Lidge is well-known, and rightly so, for his 2004 dominance, but has declined each year since in every meaningful statistic. The big problem of course - last year nearly 20% of the balls he let into the air left the yard. A lot of that is the ballpark, but by comparison Wheeler's number was 6.5% last year. Lidge: (apologies, can't figure out the table tags here) YEAR 2004 2005 2006 ERA+ 235 186 85 K/9 16.5 13.6 11.9 BB/9 3.10 3.00 4.10 HR/9 0.84 0.66 1.14 HR/F 11% 12% 18% Wheeler's K rate jumped above 9 last year, and his RA was 2.21 (ERA+ 193). His LOB percentage was 87.4%. In fact, with the exception of BB/9 (where he "skyrocketed" from 2.1 to 2.5 last year) Wheeler has improved in nearly every meaningful category since 2004. You can just check it out yourself here - http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats//main/player/index.php?lastName=Wheeler&firstName=Dan. If we give up WMP, he needs to be the guy.

Interesting guy. His 2005 RA was 6.70 but his FIP was 3.62 and xFIP was 4.18. Must not get along with the other guys on the team that well.

Aw, shucks. Thanks Red.

He will play. Couple things from Pedroia's brief time up at the end of last year... His K rate was 7% - lowest on the team behind Loretta's 9%. That's lowest on the team while facing major-league pitching for the first time. His line-drive percentage was 22.5% - perfectly fine. His BABIP, however, was .188. That's over a hundred points below league average. He was incredibly unlucky. If he had just five more balls get through the infield (and I can think of three against Anaheim that were highlight reel plays just off the top of my head) he hits .260 and everything is hunky-dory.

This is a prank, right? I mean, if we wanted to talk about replacing Cora with Graffanino, OK. Replacing a young, talented player who costs $350k a year with an old, worse player who costs a couple million+ a year is plain old wacky. No offense, Tex.

If you can get Gonzo to sign a 2-year deal I think you do it. Lugo isn't enough of an upgrade to warrant the cost. This team scores enough runs to carry a defensive shortstop. By the end of 2008 I'd guess they'll know whether Negron's arm can handle short, and a more projectable timeline for Tejeda.

You're right, I meant drafted. If he were signed I'd be asking how he'd hit in the GCL this year (I would guess)!

Considering Anderson's never swung a bat in an MiL game, his upside must really have scouts drooling. I fully expect him to destroy - literally, destroy - the GCL next year.

Given Olney's cartoonish hatred of the Sox that could be a cruel prank on his part. I'm not holding my breath. However, I may be crossing my fingers.

The money will most certainly be insane, considering he's expecting a bumpy from $11M per. Article here, Boras preparing GMs for yet another "Andy Drufresne Special" in the excerpt below: "In the marketplace for five-tool players and the marketplace for guys who can play center field, J.D. would certainly move to the top," said Scott Boras, the agent for Drew. "This will provide him with a situation that will give him more rights in his contract and a chance to improve his situation contractually."

Scaff, I think you mean SS Kyle Gilligan? He is one I'd like to see come on board. What are your thoughts on Foreman? When they signed him I read an article (here for those who haven't had a chance) which highly praised his bat, and I haven't read anything to contradict that estimation since.

Foulke is a significantly lesser risk injury-wise than Gagne, who is constructed of papier mache, yet speculation (however insane) was that the Sox would give Gagne a 2-year deal for $6M per. I think there are a lot of teams who would throw Foulke a one-year deal with a decent base and good incentives to see if he can come back. We're talking about a guy who was actually throwing last year versus a guy coming off his second elbow injury and two slipped discs. I would be pretty happy if he opted in but I'm doubtful. He doesn't really seem to love the Fenway Faithful (or media). /understatement

Any thoughts on who will shine brightest in the GCL crew? Between Anderson, Weeden, Beltre and Tejeda that lineup has some heralded raw talent.

Guys thanks for answering my questions, as I live on the west coast I never get to see the kids play. I guess I figured that the answer to my question about Beazley and Large would be "stuff". Still, it has to be frustrating for these guys to go out and perform at level A, and then be told "you can't go any farther because we don't think you can". I guess that's just the business.

Interesting. Travis Beazley pitched 67.2 innings last year, and the peripherals weren't bad. The DIPS was average. He got taken yard a bit more than you'd like to see in A ball but still, he appeared to be fairly effective. Why is he being sent to XST? Same goes for Large who performed well in every statistical category. Is this just based on stuff, or are there particular things they are working on with these guys (new pitch, mechanics)?