Some interesting thoughts here Ed. You're right, the Yankees are in.
I think straight up, when healthy, Boston is better than the Rays. All beat up with no offense and no bullpen, the Sox lost three games by a total of four runs. Mostly healthy, the Sox swept them easily.
My concern really is not the Rays in particular, nor is it the injuries--it's the inattention to detail night after night and the consistent trance-like state our manager and coaches fall into. Ortiz getting picked off third last night was only the latest in unforgivable mental errors. We lack situational awareness beyond what is acceptable from many High School teams. There is no getting around a lack of urgency and baseball IQ.
The second point working against us is that Maddon is a better game manager than Tito. If it is a close race, we're screwed.
I think our only hope is that we get healthy quick, the starters get hot and hand the ball to Bard and Papelbon, and our offense continues to overachieve. Our talent will have to be three games better than the Rays to make up for our team's lack of baseball acumen.