Cocos Disciples

If he is indeed healthy I have no reason to believe he won't at least be a solid starter. I actually don't think there's much pressure on him with the addition of Lackey and emergence of Buchholz; at this point he's a back of the rotation starter until he can prove otherwise.

My favorite part of this thread was the centered picture of Bill Polian at the top. Without it, this thread is trash. But now I have visuals! I for one am glad NateGrey took the time to search Polian on GoogleImages and post the first result. Kudos! Or should I say... http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/ic/blogs/preps/uploaded_images/1-717063.jpg .kudos.

Feel free to organize a free league, but the semi-'official' one we do every year is much better if its paid. I probably won't be playing though, I doubt I'll have enough time to dedicate.

Adam Stern.

Leave the PM closed, but PM the original sender and ask him to send you whichever one your pleasure is.

Don't open PMs from posters you don't recognize, unless you're into bat dicks and anime porn.

Indy 65.

Gotta have Kubel. I'd say: Span Hudson Mauer Morneau Kubel Cuddyer Thome Hardy Tolbert/Punto Or some permutation of those players. EDIT: I just realized your order has 8 players so you probably just forgot Kubel.

Thank you very much for doing this SFoC.

It seemed like a pretty legit scouting report. Even if he's not his trainer, it was a fine post.

I'm pretty sure that exact picture is in my stat textbook.

They're done, save dumping Lowell and maybe getting a reliever.

Hell, according to the headline he even choked during the speech. Plus: LOL AROD you're a riot.

Cold. How is Las Vegas?

OH s*** 26 TO 6 YOU JUST GOT OWNED. Wait, what?

Whoops, I missed that. I was referencing this:

Good post. I'll add on and probably end up repeating a bit of what you said. You forgot Buchholz in your rotation, who I think will improve upon last year. Matsuzaka cannot be any worse than 2009, though I don't think he'll approach his 18 win, sub 3 ERA of 2008. A rotation of: Lester Beckett Lackey Buchholz Matsuzaka is a clear improvement over last year. The bullpen will definitely take a hit this year. Last year we had a full year of Saito, who didn't have a prominent role but did have a sub 3 ERA. Masterson and Wagner also both contributed portions of the season and will not this year. There have been no bullpen acquisitions this year, but Wakefield and one more (Richardson or an acquisition) will be added. I imagine Wakefield will take a long relief/spot start role, similar to Masterson. In Masterson's time last year he posted a 4.5 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. I think that's fair to assume for Wakefield out of the bullpen, so that loss is made up for. The Sox will also get a full season of Daniel Bard. It remains to be seen if another relieer, preferably a LHP, will be added. But for now, the bullpen is: Papelbon Okajima Ramirez Bard Delcarmen Wakefield TBA Again, I'll call this a moderate downgrade from last year. Now for the lineup. The lineup as currently (and probably on Opening Day) constructed is: Ellsbury Pedroia Martinez Youkilis Ortiz Cameron Drew Beltre Scutaro So the Sox lose Bay, Lowell, the every day version of Jason Varitek, and the array of s*** that played SS last year (Lugo, Green, Gonzalez). They gain Cameron, Beltre, Scutaro and four more months of Victor Martinez. One thing Dipre didn't look at was WAR, so I will, position by position. These are the WARs of the starters at each position (Catcher has Varitek and Martinez's two months on the team). Remember, WAR takes hitting and fielding into account and is adjusted for position. [table] Position | 2009 WAR | Projected 2010 WAR | Change C|3.4|4.9|+1.5 1B|5.6|5.6|Even 2B|5.2|5.2|Even 3B|1.2|2.4|+1.2 SS|1.3|4.5|+3.2 LF|3.5|1.9|−1.6 CF|1.9|4.3|+2.4 RF|4.7|4.7|Even DH|0.7|0.7|Even |27.5|34.2|+6.7[/table] Of course these are imperfect. For the 2010 projections I just replicated the player's 2009 WAR. It's not ideal and likely inaccurate in the long run, but I couldn't find a reliable projection source; CHONE doesn't do WAR projections and PECOTA is not out yet. Some players will improve upon 2009 and some will regress (for example, Scutaro will likely regress and Beltre will likely improve), so I think it's within reason to use 2009. My interpretation of the table: The most notable differences in the table come at SS and CF. Marco Scutaro's WAR of course comes from his career year in 2009. It's unfair to expect him to replicate this, but it is fair to expect him to be better than Gonzalez/Green/Lugo (all of whom were accounted for in the 2009 cell). In centerfield, the 2009 cell is Jacoby Ellsbury's 1.9 WAR, and the 2010 is of course Mike Cameron. I think a big factor in these figures is defense. Despite the flashy plays, Ellsbury was not a good defensive player. Cameron is much better. Jacko likes to harp on the fact that LF defense at Fenway is not very important. He's partially right. However, it is important when you're taking away Ellsbury from CF, where defense is important, and moving him to LF. Cameron is also a better offensive player than Ellsbury. The only negative difference in the table is LF, which should come as a surprise to nobody. Jason Bay was a very good offensive player and a poor defender. Ellsbury is a major downgrade offensively, of course, but a moderate defensive upgrade. So to answer the original question, the Red Sox have improved. Expect them to make the playoffs, be it Wild Card or AL East.

AFC WC: Patriots over Ravens AFC WC: Jets over Bengals NFC WC: Cowboys over Eagles NFC WC: Packers over Cardinals AFC D: Chargers over Patriots AFC D: Colts over Jets NFC D: Saints over Packers NFC D: Cowboys over Vikings AFC: Chargers over Colts NFC: Cowboys over Saints SB: Chargers over Cowboys

Ellsbury Pedroia Martinez Youkilis Ortiz Cameron Drew Beltre Scutaro I slid Drew in between Cameron and Beltre for matchup purposes, so the lineup is: LRSRLRLRR

This conversation could use a little more civility. Chill out, folks.

Gotcha. I was confused because you quoted me.

Again, I didn't say it was a "massive" downgrade. I'm agreeing with you.

That's basically what I said. Moderate offensive downgrade, but also a pitching and defense upgrade.

You changed your tune very quickly on Beltre. You also forgot the offensive upgrade at SS. ButI don't think anyone will dispute that the offense has downgraded. You're not breaking new ground here. However, if you really think there's not a tremendous defensive upgrade, I don't know what to tell you.