TheRivernator

for starts...

sorry RS. There were a good amount of almost anti-Bronson posts on this site. You werent one of them either. Singer was and a few others. I'll quote those guys. I dont want to throw every sox fan under the bus, but the media campaign is working. (see dirt dogs or anything gammo writes for the spin)...

No it is not. A quality start is 6 or more innings pitched with 3 or less ER allowed. It has NOTHING to do with the team's offense...

I think this post started as an idea about the backstabbing that Arroyo got and it turned into an anti-trade post, sorry. I think the sox made a mistake, but it has the potential to be a huge trade in the sox favor if (and it is a HUGE if) Wily can actually hold back. Also, power is nice, but it wont do you much good if your team is built off OBP and you have a guy who swings at everything from tits to toes. Either way, when you say goodbye to a player, be realistic about it. When we said goodbye to Weaver, Brown and Vazquez, at least we hasome backing. All 3 sucked in yankee uniforms (Vazquez the least but he folded down the stretch) and all three were dealt away or let go in favor of something better. Now look at Pettitte. When we lost him, yankee fans were mad at the organization, not the player. We heaped praise on Pettitte and still miss him. No backstabbing involved. Arroyo deserved the same treatment, but it is almost as if he is being eaten alive since he was forced out of the org....

singer, you do know that quality starts are independent of team performance, right?

Ok, you truly are thick headed. A league average pitcher means that he balances out the poor and the solid. His era of 4.5 was league average for a starter. His win total was much higher than league average though, and his QS were the 5th highest total in the league. That is called consistent and is definitely not "league average". He kept you in games, he was a big reason why Papi has a ring, and a major reason that you even made the playoffs last yr. Now take that switchblade out of Arroyo's back and admit that you are drinking in the swill of the Sox ownership media spin. The sox media is going to split sox nation like no other organization. There will be the disillusioned fans who truly see what is going on, but they will still root for the name on the jersey, and there will be those who drink the swill and will be the pawns of the media circus. I think I know where you stand singer....

It was only directed at those who were diminishing his importance for the sox. You werent doing that....

please show me the yankee red sox argument in my above post? Also, you can find Arroyo's all over baseball? Are you retarded, well, maybe you are. Yeah, I think the yankees should just go out on the market and nab the guy with the 5th highest total of quality starts last yr in the league. Yeah, those guys are easy to find. NOT. Guys like Arroyo are not as common as you may think.

nice retort, nothing of substance, just what I expected....

Been a long while since I posted here, but whatever. This deal is a strange one to say the least. Most deals have clear cut winners and clear cut losers, or they have the general feeling that both teams got what they needed. I dont get that feeling from this one. For those of you who badmouth Arroyo as he leaves town as a "bad pitcher" or that he was inconsistent, do your f***ing homework. You did the same thing as JD walked out the door, the same thing as Clemens left etc, you assassinate the players that leave either by FA or trade and it makes me sick. This quote couldnt be more wrong. Who was the sox leader in quality starts last yr? Was it even close? Get your facts straight. Arroyo had 20QS last yr, 4 behind the AL leader Santana. He was 2nd on the team to the knuckler in IP while breaking the 200IP mark. He even had a 15-20 start undefeated streak bridging two seasons, and what did you get him for? He was a released player from the pirates who just so happened to fit perfectly into the fenway limelight, something that does not happen all that often. He was a guy who gave you nearly 200IP in your championship yr when BH Kim fizzled out. His overall numbers as a red sox starter were 377.7IP 377H 180ER 285K 98BB to even out to a 4.30ERA and a solid .250s BAA. The guy was a horse, he took the ball and 63% of the time he put 6+IP and 3 or less ERs on the board. That is about as consistent as it gets, so for the back stabbers who wanna lay one large dagger into his spine on his way out the door, please dont water it down, it makes you look stupid. As far as Wily Mo. Huge potential that has not truly been realized. He is a 24 yr old with a 2 yr injury history of mostly his legs, something that is scary. Also, he is the antithesis of the sox philosophy. As a matter of fact, this whole offseason has been out of sorts for theo and comp. With Wily Mo in the lineup, the sox will have 3 guys who had OBP's below .305 last yr (joining Lowell and AGon). I thought the sox philosophy was OBP and BAw/RISP? Well Wily's BAw/RISP last yr was under .220 so his clutch factor kinda blows as well. For those of you who want to compare Ortiz and Pena, well you cannot. Ortiz had a .340OBP yr prior to coming to the sox and he also had a .364 and .371 season under his belt prior to that. He proved he could walk, Wily hasnt. Most players show aggressiveness in yr one and improve steadily on their patience until about yr 3-4 where they level off. Wily actually dropped his walk total last yr from 22 to 20, so he will likely follow the patience path of a Soriano (ie none). Also, Wily K's at a higher rate than he gets on base (.350 to .304) which will bring back memories of Bellhorn except there wont be those all important 78 walks. Now take a look at what won the sox their only championship since our great great grandparents were little. The sox lineup that postseason consisted of Vtek, Papi, Millar, Bellhorn, Cabrera, Manny, Mueller, Damon, and Trot. That 9 man lineup had a player low OBP of .320 (Cabrera) yet everyone else's was above .365. That is a bitch of a lineup to face. Now, when you add Lowell, (who looks just as bad this yr as he was last yr) AGon (who cannot walk or make contact), and Wily Mo, you will have a dead zone in the lineup that will give you something very seldom and a whole lot of nothing. I think this trade was a panic move and Wily will give you exactly what he gave Cincy. But what did he give Cincy? He gave them a near .900OPS vs lefties but a much lower OPS vs righties (mid .700s) and when all of that is on total bases and harldy anything on walks, then you become a hit or miss player. Combine that with the fact that 3/4 of the league's pitching is right handed and you basically dealt your most consistent pitcher away for a platoon player who will likely be nothing more than that. Yeah he has a higher ceiling than most, but his ceiling started to show and I think Cincy wanted to sell high. The sox should have held out for Kearns, who at least fits the sox MO fo patience and power, not just the latter. Grill me all you want, but I think this is another case of overhype the new guy and stab the departing guy in the back. Arroyo was a warrior for the sox cause who took less money to stay in Boston. Again, he signed a TEAM friendly deal with a handshake agreement that he would not be traded and the team renegged on the handshake deal. Arroyo loved Boston, he loved you guys, and he loved the red sox. That love was taken advantage of and don't think it won't come back to bite them. Word travels fast from the players....

and herein lies the problem of realism that got me ganged up on for the most part at the beginning. Goodbye for now guys....

thanks buddy, Manny got a lot of RBI's because of the immense opportunities that he got hitting after papi and damon. I think his RBI chances will go down a little, so my prediction of his lower RBI total is not on him at all, just on a lessening of the chances as I think Coco will struggle initially. For Coco, well, he has a LOT of pressure on him. Yankee fans knew he as available and will be razzing him and comparing him to Damon. The sox fans will be comparing him to damon and over the last 2 yrs, his numbers were very comparable to damon. But things change when pressure is applied. He might be very good and actually get better in the limelight, but also some guys crumble. While I think he will have a solid career in boston, I think it will start a little slow, that is all, then he'll continue his pace after a half season in the pressure packed ALE....

I see your quote about loretta and I hear ya that he returned from it once before, but in the season following the injury (2002) he still had a composite OPS of close to .800 meaning he recovered well from it, and he was on fire as he was healing as evidence by his .831 post all star ops that season. For 2005, his OPS was .707, a career worst, and he had a .690OPS after the AS break, meaning he was getting worse as the season progressed. We can agree to disagree on this one, but this is not the same as 2001 IMO as Loretta is 5 yrs older now and that injury is a very debilitating one. Also, he rebounded well after 2001 and he progressed as he healed, which was not the case last yr. For Lowell, well, I think BABIP is a useful stat, but it is not what I use for each and every player. Lowell is a power hitter and even if he had some bad luck on balls hit into the field, his luck at hiiing them over the field should be unchanges. Also, the idea of his ballpark playing into this is not relevant because his numbers prior to this yr were in the same park, so the stadium factor is not important in this one. Lowell is a power hitter and a guy who can get on base. Last yr he couldnt hit for power at all and he walked about the same, so something is up. Either way, his BA is not the stat that everyone should have been so worried about, it is his humongous drop in SLG and OPS, the bread and butter of a power hitter and those dropped precipitously....

Oh, I know that fenway has had its share of good lefty hitters, but it dimensions do not favor the typical lefty hitter in the rcf is gets extremely deep, extremely fast. That's all....

fielding % argument is like asking does a bear s*** in the woods. The avg, hmmmm, I think Id take that bet....

I said there would be a debatable post and here it is. I will go position by position with trends and predictions and we shall see how close I am by the end of the yr. I also think that this will help to show my stance on players and not give people a vague feeling that I am wavering, as it may appear. I do not consider myself unrealistic by any means and will gladly accept any back and forth on one of my predictions. I just did not want to have everyone think that i feel as if the sox will bottom out and not give any type of breakdown or proof. I have reviewed the stats and I think that the below predictions are a fair assessment of what should be expected in 2006. Feel free to disagree, also yankee ones will be coming soon too, but I need o be up at 4:45 and I want to go to bed, that will have to wait till tomorrow Red Sox C Jason Varitek- He has been very consistent over the past 3 yrs having an average season of .283 21HR 75RBI with a .858OPS. He actually strayed very little from these numbers in any of the last 3 yrs and with his physique, it is not unlikely that he would continue the pace. His major dropoff in the second half last yr (.301 to .256)is alarming, but then again he is a catcher and they get tired more than anyone. He is still one of, if not the, best catchers in the game and he should be continually consistent for at least this yr. Although age can always catch up to you at his position, but I think he will last for a few more before he seriously declines (like his yankee counterpart). 2006 prediction .285 22HR 75RBI .850OPS 1B Youkilis- I was surprised to see that he had only 79Abs last yr. His previous yr he had 208 Abs and nobody is sure whether he will perform like the guy he was in 2004 (.260/.361/.413/.774) or the guy in 2005 (.278/.400/.405/.805). He is billed as a solid eye guy and maybe on the light side as far as hitting. While I do not think he will be worth his weight as a 1b, I do not think that he will be a drag on the team. His 2005 numbers may be a little inflated by the low statistical power, but if he gets regular playing time, he might be able to stay comfortable and play well over his performance the past 2 yrs. BUT, if his history says anything, it is that he does not play well at the end of the yr, and that is something that could cause him to lose some playing time to battle tested JT Snow. Overall, I think the kid will play well and maintain a high OBP over 500ABs. 2006 prediction .275 10HR 55RBI .360OBP .790OPS- not stellar, but serviceable 2B Loretta- The guy is coming off major surgery on a significant baseball injury. He is also coming off his worst season of his life, he will be 35 and he was pretty much dumped by the padres. All these point towards one thing, IMO, he is on a downward spiral, or at least the scouts think so. His average last yr was 20 points below his career average and 55 points below his 2005 number. His SLG was 61 points below his career and dropped 148 points from 2004. His OBP last yr was 5 points below his career and 31 points below 2004. What does that all spell? He still has the on base ability, but he has absolutely no power. He was actually one of the most powerful and productive 2b’s in the game, with 70+ RBI’s in 2003 and 2004, but he only had half that in 2005. His age and his apparent lack of power make him look very pedestrian compared to his previous stature and make his predictions very cloudy. Also, what is worse is that he ended the year very poorly hitting .240 in the last month of the season, ruining the theory that he was improving and recovering as the season went along. My idea is that he ups the average slightly just due to the fens and his slg should improve a little due to the doubles he should get from the wall itself, but overall, he will be very similar to last yr IMO. 2006 prediction .285 5HR 45RBI .710OPS 3B Lowell- Another guy who just flat out sucked last yr compared to his norm. He dropped 34 points off his career average and 57 points off the yr before. His slg dropped by 145 points and his obp dropped by 61 points making his ops drop a grand total of 206 points off his solid 2004 yr. Also, just to abolish the thought of his recovering from what was a slow start, he had a putrid august and September hitting .207 and .246 in those months respectively. Seriously, this kind of drop in production is usually what you see when a power hitter loses it quickly, but you don’t expect to see it until 35 or so. Lowell will be 32 next yr and should still be in his prime. He should rebound a little in the fens, but I do not think he gets back to where he was in the past. Also, I am not sure there has been a player that had this bad of a yr without injury and go on to resume his career numbers. Hence why I predict that Lowell will not be as good as some hope he will be. 2006 prediction .245 15HR 65RBI .700OPS- an improvement, but not the Lowell of old. SS Alex Gonzalez- one of the best defensive SS’s in the game, too bad he cannot hit for much. He actually had his best batting average since 1999 at .264, and that is not saying much. His power dropped a grand total of 18HRs and 51 points in slugging, but he showed more patience walking 4 more times over a smaller amount of Abs. Then again for a guy with a career sub.300 OBP, that is not good, but it is a start. Either way, he made a whole lot more contact last yr (45 less K’s), so he likely strayed from the all or nothing power that he had showed earlier in his career and decided to be more patient and make more contact. I am gonna go out on a limb and suggest that his average continues to rise slightly, but his power will likely stay the same. 2006 predictions .270 6HR 50RBI .700OPS LF Manny Ramirez- Do I really need to break this one down? Just when everyone thought he had finally slowed down, he got extremely hot and finished extremely well last yr. 2006 predictions- .300 44HR 135RBI 1.000OPS CF Coco Crisp- Bright lights and replacing a legend. Well, I hate to say it, but the kid better have a good solid set on him before reporting to his first fenway game, lots of pressure on this guy, His last 2 yrs have been solid with right around .300BA and .800OPS and he should eventually continue that in the long run. He was remarkably consistent throughout the season last yr going month to month and moving to an offensive park should help, although as a switch hitter, he will be batting lefty a lot and fenway is not a lefty hitting park. Either way, I expect him to take a dip this yr early and resume his career path from about mid season on, once he gets used to the pressure. So, I am predicting that his numbers drop a little off what he gave Cleveland, but I think that his numbers post AS break will be in the .300/.800 range that his career has consistently shown. 2006 predictions- .285 12HR 65RBI .780OPS (post all star predictions are .300 7HR 40RBI .800OPS) RF Nixon- Back injuries are never pleasant and Trot had one hell of one to start 2004. He ended up finishing strong at the end once his quad and back healed and he was integral to the championship run, but his back proved that he could not sustain a full season of stress, as evidence by his hot start and ice cold finish of 2005. He does have something to prove in that he is in the last yr of his contract, but his back seemed to have robbed him of his power last yr as evidence by his 54 point drop in SLG from 2005 and his 132 point drop from 2004. After having 3 straight 20+ HR/80+RBI seasons from 2001-2003, his injury in 2004 made 2005 the first full season in over 5 yrs in which trot failed to reach 20 HRs or 80RBIs. Trot will be 32 in april and his lack of ability to hit lefties (.224 last yr) makes him a platoon player. I also would not be surprised if he leaves via trade before spring training, but either way, he is an enigma in that his power was lost completely last yr. I do think he has more power, but the average and OBP should stay about the same. 2006 predictions .275 18HR 70RBI .810OPS DH David Ortiz- assuming his fat arse doesn’t break down, I am gonna be getting awful ornery whenever I see this guy come to the plate. Likely the most feared hitter this side of pujols on the planet, David Ortiz is a monster. I thought he was a 2 yr wonder and would eventually fade a little last yr and I was dead wrong. I wont make that mistake again. He will have another monster season. No need to break this one down as I will be hurling as I type this prediction. 2006 predictions .310 48HR 145RBI 1.010OPS how’d I do?

thanks ksush, sorry for the insult post. I was getting it from all sides. Either way, you'll see a debatable post out of me soon....

at least I know where I stand with you. As far as the making sense thing, I think I do for the most part....

Okay, I seem to have gotten off on the wrong foot so far, so let me give an explanation. First of all, I am a 24 yr old medical student, one yr from becoming a physician. My time is limited although my posting history may not indicate as much, so if I make a brief post that makes no sense, ignore it because i am likely on my way back to the OR. I also played college baseball, played in 2 CWS's and actually got a chance to play at fenway when I was in high school and I have a souvenier from the monster if you know what I mean. I have played with many current minor leaguers and one current major leaguer and have had some professional coaching and scouting in my career, so I have put in the work to know what I am looking for as far as talent and how to evaluate players. So I am not just your casual fan, I was close to the dream and I came away with a knowledge of the game that not many have the priviledge to learn. I consider myself lucky and honored to have had that chance. That being said, I know that my way is not the highway, and I apologize if that is how I came off. As far as boards are concerned, I started at BH in august of 2004 and was ganged up on kinda like it is now after I took a defensive role. After a few calming moments, I noticed that working peacefully was the best way to go and things worked out very well and I made some good friends. Once I got to know the people, it was easier for me to tailor a response to them. The problem is, many of you guys seem so alike that it is hard for me to distinguish that, so that will take time. BUT, I love to talk baseball and will at length any chance I get to be out of the OR (I hate the OR). That being said, I am a yankee fan, there ya have it. But, I am also rather realistic about my team (trust me on this one, yankee boards are full of the 15 yr olds who think Pavano will win 20). You will also notice that I have a penchant for very long posts and for some reason I do not use the enter key, kinda comes with my profession I guess. Either way, if you read my posts, most of them are based off recent history and they do have some statistical backing. Going off feeling makes you look silly most of the time, because feelings are the same as hope and everyone knows the analogy there. I have been burned more than once on feeling. So, that being said, I do mean to come on here and talk baseball, the game I love. I do not mean to offend anyone, but I will not hesitate to defend myself should I be harassed with a negative intent. So, how bout them yankees, eh?

last 3 yrs as a reliever 11-9 3.52ERA 128IP 101H 122K 68BB .654 lefty opp OPS. Not too shabby....

depends on the bacterium and the response to therapy. It also depends on whether he went septic or if it stayed localized. It sounds like they caught it early, which means he should be fine in a month or two....

Well again, I see the masses have put forth another mental midget. Sigh. Stop ranting about the stupid yankee crap? Well, maybe if some posters on this site had their s*** straight then I wouldnt have to rant, think of that one there kpussy? Does anyone actually read my posts or do you just see my name and disagree with everything I say. I never said chacon would be great, I only said that his numbers were tainted because he was in colorado, and last yr may have been his true numebrs. Also, he was an allstar one yr, was converted to a closer the next (and sucked at it btw), then resumed starting. He was 1-8 in colorado but his era was 4.05ish before coming to the yankees. He came to NY, he got his curve back and he was very good. That is indisputeable because it is the truth. BTW, have you ever watched him more than once? How do you know how good his curve is? This is the s*** that gets me ranting. Making dumbass statements without basis just to be a sox homer. Wake the f*** up and actually act like you have completed more than 3 grades of organized schooling, my 8 yr old cousin can have a better argument....

but if he were still a red sock and yankee fans were questioning it, you would say he will be just fine. Nice to see the rosey glasses are tainting our picture. Fact is, Damon got checked out and passed his physical. That is all that should matter. Also, with the yankees non-reliance on a full time DH and having 2 backup CFers, Damon should see about 10-20 games as the DH which should recharge the batteries. The sox couldnt do that with papi. Also, he wont have to deal with the rather hard green monster 81 times, which I believe was the source of his injury last yr. One thing I never questioned was how much of a gamer he is. If he goes out and gets hurt by playing hard, then I'll be mad initially, but I'll be glad to have a blood and guts kinda guy on my team. He should be fine, but if he isnt and he plays hard and he gets hurt, then whatever. We survived without him last yr, we could survive again. BUT, his track record shows that he should play 140+ games this yr and that should be a lock for this yr too...

he was in seattle in the AL in a smaller park and was nasty, sub 3era nasty, then he just plain sucked after the trade. I dont know what we'll get out of him, but he is a lefty arm with a history of success in the AL. He can also spot start and long relieve, which I like, because it gives us flexibility....

I'd be lying if I said that I wasnt worried about Farns. Where there is fire, there is a chance to get burned. If last yr was a true indicator of what he will bring to the table for the next 3 yrs, then great. He finally harnessed his stuff and was basically a control and power freak last yr. But, I never really trust hard throwing relievers because they just seem to lose it rather quickly one day, especially the quirky ones (Wohlers, Rocker, Koch to name few). I just hope he loses it after 2010 or so....