TheRivernator

I think you are overshadowing the severity of Foulke's problems, and I am not talking his health. I have seen that look before, you know, the one he had after the Hafner grand slam? I'd say Jeff Weaver circa 2002. He NEVER regained his composure until he left the pressure packed Al East. Also, relievers have a history of just flat out losing it much faster than starters. Throw in the fact that he now needs chronic injections, which arent a big deal by themselves, and you have a recipe for disaster. I dont even think Foulke lasts the yr. I see the sox hanging onto him until the AS break and then pulling an Embree and letting him fly. Tavares or Seanez will get some saves as I think Timlin is much more effective as a set-up man and eventually the job will be Hansen's to lose (likely 2007). As far as Schilling, I think the 2004 version is long gone, but I think he'll be better than the 2005 version. He showed today why he is no longer an elite pitcher and why he will not be the ace of the staff by the end of the season. His stuff is no longer consistent. His heater is his bread and butter and for the most part he has always had that. If that gets inconsistent, then he becomes a very hittable pitcher. Most power stuff requires great velocity to work. His splitter is deadly when his fastball is 94-95, but when his heater is 90, an 82mph splitter is not enough of a change of pace. He gets very hittable. Look at most of the power pitchers and when they struggle. It is usually not due to velocity, but location or the break and control of their secondary pitches. Once that heater gets inconsistent on the speed front, they start to be inconsistent in the stat column. I expect a close to 1:1 W/L ratio this yr, something like 12-11 or 14-13.....

As far as Pap is concerned, the kid has the potential to be a special player. He has 2 plus pitches and an average pitch in his arsenal and he has the poise to make it in the pressure packed Boston environment. He has the mentality that translates into any pitching job, but he will be the best suited for the rotation. He is a kid with the potential to be a 200IP 15-20 win horse and those dont come around very often. The sox should not f*** with that....

The red sox brass would be completely and utterly STUPID if Papelbon is a bullpen man for his career. Hansen is being groomed as the next closer. They have 2 aging pitchers in the rotation in Schill and Wells and another pitcher who basically works yr to yr in Wake. Also, Clement is being shopped around and Beckett is a FA after next yr. Having Pap and Lester entering the rotation as early as 2007 makes the most sense, but you retard the growth of Papelbon if you stick him in the pen for all of 2006. If the sox were smart, they'd be fielding offers for Clement and Wells, hoping someone would overpay. If nobody bites, then they should either deal one of them if their stock rises enough or drop one of them if they completely fall off the face of the earth. I'll go against the analysts on this one, as I think Pap is a long reliever for 2 months and goes to the rotation by June...

It all depends on Big Schill. Last season, he showed that he was inept in almost any situation, but he got back to relative mediocrity by the end of the yr. His first 5 starts of the yr will be the tell tale signs with him. As for Foulke, I think there is a reason why the sox added so many arms to the middle relief. I think you will see Seanez and Tavrez split time as closer this yr and grooming Hansen for the job in 2007. I see Foulke having a good start, then lacking the stamina and the willpower to battle for the entire yr. Once he blows his first save, expect the Fenway faithful to ride him like a 2 bit whore and I think he'll collapse rather than rise....

As disloyal as Theo has seemed, he has still placed a product on the field with enough strength to make the playoffs 3 yrs running. This yr he will be tested the most in my opinion, as they had a yankee-esque turnover without the acquisition of the huge names. One can argue that Loretta, Lowell, and Beckett are huge names, but lets be serious here. Lowell and Loretta are coming off bad yrs and Beckett has a health issue. As I have said repeatedly, though, that pitching staff will be the gauge for how far the sox fare this yr. There will be undo burden on the "aces" of the staff to carry the torch, and unlike yrs past, the offense wont be able to carry them the whole way. They'll need some pitching help....

KC is a spoiler team. They'll win more than people give them credit for, but they will not compete. I'd say 65-70 wins tops, BUT, what they have done is bought time for their minor league system. They have one of the best minorleague prospects in Alex Gordon and a core of very young prospects that would otherwise be rushed to the show. What the Royals are trying to do is get the fanbase of 3 yrs ago back, when they won 80 games an Pena was MOY. BUT, they require Greinke to get his head out of his ass and all those stellar arms in the pen to settle down and throw strikes. Unfortunately, Allard Baird ran this club in the ground so fast that he didnt even make good draft picks, leaving his upper levels barren of talent (aside from Gordon). If you have the worst team in the AL over the last 10 yrs and you concurrently have one of the worst minor league systems in the AL, something is wrong. I think the majority of their problem is that they rush their future talent to the bigs and they get overwhelmed. The vets they have now will allow for maturation of the talent without rushing guys, which should help their team. I actually like the Royals, I feel as if that franchise got railroaded by the new owners after the old one died and now they pinch pennies with a historically strong team. I hope they can rebuild, but it has o start with Baird being removed and the whole scouting department being re-done....

I thought he broke his thumb and had ligament damage. That is a little more serious....

no doubt the sox re-up that baby. This shouldnt even be an issue, Ortiz should expect to re-negotiate next spring. It is his fault for not having enough faith in himself to wait for a bigger contract. He took the low total when he was in the midst of his first real good yr. Theo got him, now he is upset about it. Whatever, you signed the deal, live with it....

I thought Ortiz was signed through 2007? Am I wrong?

I never said that his spring training numbers were why analysts thought Lowell was done. Look at his numbers from last yr. I am only serving the opinion of the most slimy bastard on ESPN, Gammo, who just happens to be Sox spin doctor #1a next to Danno. BTW, Loretta does look great, but you cannot predict how healthy he will be....

I'm not all that tech savvy and if a guy tells me that he sent a virus to my cpu, I'll be pissed. That's all. Nail his ass to the wall if he ever pulls that s*** again....

Hey, you guys may think of me as a ballbuster and all, but that is not destructive to anyone's personal property. What that son of a bitch did was hack your site and then threaten the destruction of our own personal property by saying that all of our PC's have been infected with a virus. I believe that is against the law and could definitely be a prosecuteable offense, or at the very least enough to scare the s*** out of whomever did that. Yeszir should have the IP address of that prick, and you should report it with the special stipulation that he threatened destruction of our own personal property with a virus. Being a ballbuster is not a crime, but what that kid did last night is....

how quickly a post about a concern gets turned into a snipe. EITHER SAY THAT EVERYONE ON MY TEAM IS GREAT OR ELSE YOU ARE LABELLED A TRAITOR OR AN IDIOT!!!!! Oh well, the sox infield will be their weak point offensively, no doubt about it, but the infield defense will be stellar. AGon and Loretta up the middle is a solid combo and having Lowell at 3b is another GGer. Youk, a converted 3b, should make a seemless transition to 1st and his platoon partner can play D as well. The infield D, minus E-Rent, should account for a drop in runs allowed, no question. BUT, overall, you must admit that the offense is a dropoff. Even with ERent having an off yr at the plate, AGon has never reached what he did last yr. Millar reached base as does Youk, and neither have power, so that is a wash. Last yr's graf to this yrs Loretta is a wash because of how good Graf was for you guys last yr. And you have to admit that losing a tough out like Mueller (and a clutch Mariano killer) is going to be a downgrade, especially when you get a pricy risk like Lowell to take his place. All 4 positions have a very real chance of disaster, and that has to be scary. BUT, if the sox rotation pans out and if their guys stay healthy, all the IF will need to do is catch grounders and watch Manny and Ortiz drive home the runs and Beckett and Schill win the games....

You put way too much emphasis on ST. Remember two names, Jaret Wright and Benny Agbayani. Two players on opposite sides of NY who fooled their teams into relying too heavily on them after they had stellar springs. Nobody has any clue what kind of production Loretta will have after 2-3 months of baseball. Nobody knows if the surgically repaired thumb will develop scar tissue or if he will re-injure it, or if he will get arthritis in it, etc. But he is not the only question mark. Graf is so valuable because he can play all 4 infield positions and he proved he could play in Fenway, that is huge. And with the sox having 4 new starters in the IF and none of them a sure thing for anything, having Graf around would have afforded them the luxury of getting a positive offensive production from a position that had been lacking it. BTW, if you listen to Senior spin doctor Peter "I look like a troll" Gammons, even he isnt optimistic about Lowell. He even said that the sox are "secretly discussing if he is done". You know what that means, like Luca Brazi, Mike Lowell might be sleeping with the fishes soon (or playing for them again). If Lowell bombs out, Graf could play 3rd and at least be a stopgap into next season....

Loretta is a difference maker, no doubt, but his injury history and poor numbers last yr should have warranted the sox to at least hang onto Graf to see what they had in Loretta. Plus, Graf's stock is really high right now, and if he were to take a utility position and play 45 out of the first 90 games, his stock would not have fallen all that far. Then when some team is looking for a 2b at the all star break, theo could rape them of pitching or prospects. OR, if Loretta is hurt, if AGon continues to hit like s***, or if Lowell proves he is truly this bad, they would have a guy who could easily slide into that position. He was a great security blanket to have and would have become a tradeable commodity if everything panned out for the sox. BUT, as always, it comes down to money and the sox didnt want to pay him 2 mil this yr. At 2 mil, IMHO, he was a steal and the likelihood is he would only get half of that from Boston and the other half from whomever picks him up at the deadline....

WEEI is already crafting a way to make this look like a smart move. Let the snipes begin, soon Gammons will say that Tony was overratedand the sole reason the sox lost in the playoffs....

As far as cities, I lived in Beantown for a little while, love the city. NY is a nice city as well, but it is a little too big. As far as Paris, who gives a flying f*** about that city. They are lucky that their white flag factory is in business or all those panty waste wusses over there would have to actually do some work. Nothing like eating cream sauces, smokin butts and not shaving armpit hair (for women). Fug them. France blows....

Ha, no good analysis, just a dig. Solid work from a guy who apparently has done much for the site. All you've done is drop the collective IQ....

Okay, let's see.... People hated Millar last season during the yr, that kinda doesnt make for a true "assassination" seeing as everyone was already looking forward to a non-Millar season. Mueller was touted as "old, slow, and injury prone" once you got Lowell and Lowell was touted as a "guy who will turn it around in the small ballpark and hit 40HRs". I even saw a post on another sox site saying that Mueller was inconsistent and unclutch. He did have the biggest hit in sox history in 2004 and was top 10 in BAw/RISP. Derek Lowe? He wasnt assassinated on his way out the door? Have you forgotten? We don't need that party animal, he cheats on his wife, he's a drunk, he's a mental case, LA can have him, etc. etc. etc. Pedro was CRUCIFIED for leaving. "He played us" "He was deteriorating". There was even a report in the Globe that his rotator cuff was almost 90% torn. Let me just say as a medical person that a 90% tear in the rotator cuff makes the pitching motion completely impossible. He was the most dominant sox pitcher for their era EVER and he was pushed out the door like a beaten dog. Roberts wasnt a starter, Mirabelli wasnt a full time starter. I dont think you would find assassination posts on Andy Dominique or Abe Alvarez either. Your big time players get ripped when they leave. It is almost like a gang, you have to go through the line and get punched in the gut as you try to leave.....

look at the league average for starting pitchers. He is right at it. Also, an average pitcher should win half their starts? What kind of dumbass post is that? So why doesnt everybody average 16 wins? That is half their starts right?

btw, the sox were 17-15 in his starts last yr, so the sox actually dropped the ball a bit for arroyo if you go by the stats. The top teams will win 80-90% of Quality starts which on the lower end of the estimate would give the sox 16 wins in the 20QS. You usually win 25-30% of the non-QS's and since he had 12 of those, you would expect 3-4 wins, so the sox should have won 19 or 20 of his games...

You have a guy who would give you a chance to win 63% of the time. Not just that, but with your lineup, you should win about 80-90% of those quality starts. Given that, the sox would win at least 50% of his starts based solely on his quality starts. Of the 12 non-quality starts, you are bound to win 3 or 4 just by luck or by him having a good outing that didnt qualify (8IP 4ER or 5.2IP 2ER). Basically, if things break the way the stats typically fall, Arroyo's consistency should have guaranteed the sox 20 wins in his 32 starts, which is a 63% win % and if every sox pitcher did that, the sox would win 102 games....

Pena is following the career path of Dave Kingman or Phil Plantier. You need balance in your game, all taters is not beneficial, as one may think...

overrated? Seriously, look at your rotation last yr. Look at the stats. He led the team in QS's. He was second on the team in IP. He took the bump 32 times and his ERA was mid-4. That is hardly overrated....

That is all you had to say. If that is truly how you feel, then you cannot really be argued with. Just dont diminish what you gave up....