Over my many years of being a fan and doing analysis like above, I have learned that when you start piling up th "ifs" it means that your team will not be very good. Rarely, do all or most of the "ifs" occur. More likely only a few come through and that is not enough to be a good ball club. You have a highlighted a bunch of "ifs" and that is only with regard to the bullpen. We have other "ifs" besides the pen. Bard and Aceves holding down rotation spots over the course of a season is a huge unknown. Reddick or Kalish holding down RF for an entire season and giving the team good offensive production is an "if" too. It's not a huge issue, but it is far from a certainty. I'd feel a lot better if we got a good RH bat to share OF duties.
If Cherries can build a good pen, a lot of our issues go away, but there goes that word "if" again. Truly, at this point, this team can go hard in either direction-- very good or a no-contender. Things are developing very slowly and it's frustrating. As Fred said, we have gotten worse since the end of the season. We are waiting for moves to turn that around.
Of course there have been years like 1975, when 2 kids like Rice and Lynn come up from the minors to become the 2 best players in the league, but I am not holding my breath on that. Even though it was the age before the internet and ESPN and Sports Talk radio, we still knew about Lynn and Rice while they were in the minors. They were that good.