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guapo34

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Everything posted by guapo34

  1. guapo34
    Just because there is no cap doesn't mean there is no budget. The Red Sox have very high revenues, but they don't have a money tree. A $20 million a year contract absolutely keeps you from getting other players you'd like. That said, Manny's contract might be high, but I'm sick of reading people talk about it like its the worst in baseball. He makes more than he would get as a free agent, but he produces like a top player in baseball. Most teams have contracts that hurt more than Mannys. How about Jim Thome in Philly last year, Tom Glavine and Carlos Beltran for the Mets, half the yankee roster(Bernie, Jeter, Giambi, Pavano, Jorge, Wright), Pat Burrel for philly, J.D. Drew for LA, Ordonez and Pudge on the Tigers. And thats probably only half the players that are more overpaid than Manny. At least our overpaid guy produces.
  2. guapo34
    Everybody who criticized Manny in this thread needs to get the facts stright. Mandatory reporting day for positional players is Feb 28. Manny is not a "No-Show" as this thread wrecklessly states. He's not due in to camp until next Tuesday! He called the manager who after hearing his reasons, said it would be ok for him to report ONE DAY LATE. It would be better to have him on time, but ripping into a guy for showing up one day late while getting permission from his manager is idiotic. Not getting the facts striaght before you do is irresponsible. Why do you think Manny hates the media in this town? Maybe its because they'll devote major segments of their show, or article, of how hes a bad teamate for not being in camp when he isn't even due in yet. The positional players that are there have reported early.
  3. guapo34
    I'd rather he be honest than lie. Honestly, whats the big deal? He didn't say anything offensive about anyone.
  4. guapo34
    Not just those two years, but from 1997-2003 i think he put together the best 7 year stretch of any starting pitcher ever. While he lost alot of the 2001 season to injury, He did make at least 29 starts every other year in that stretch. Edit: His number should definately be retired here, and anyone who boos him doesn't deserve to be at the game if he pitches.
  5. guapo34
    2b with a higher road OPS than Soriano: (I'm taking road numbers cuz he played in Arlington and was helped a ton by that ballpark.) Brian Roberts Jeff Kent Chase Utley Mark Ellis Robinson Cano Ray Durham Luis Castillo Todd Walker Adam Kennedy Jorge Cantu Ronnie Belliard Orlando Hudson Craig Counsell Marcus Giles Tadahito Iguchi Mark Grudzielanek Placido Palanco Mark Loretta min. 225 AB's on the road. source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?seasonType=2&type=reg&sort=OPS&minpa=225&split=34&season=2005&pos=2b&hand=a&league=mlb&ageMin=17&ageMax=51
  6. guapo34
    Coco was better than him offensively last year. He is also much younger. He is more likely to get better than worse. As for defense, the red sox seem to think Coco can be just as good defensively too. Neither player has an above average arm, but I'd have to think Coco's is stronger.
  7. guapo34
    On the road last year: BA: .224 OBP: .265!!!! SLB: .374 OPS: .639 Thats in 326 at bats. Just awful. Edit: If he stays in Washington, he's going from one of the best hitters parks to one of the worst. Why are Yankee fans defending this guy? He isn't there anymore and he seemed to always fall apart for them in the post season.
  8. guapo34
    I don't think you can say Fenway is generally better for righties or lefties. It really depends on the player. Wade Boggs was perfect for Fenway, because he was so good at going the other way. Mo Vaughn was another left handed hitter helped by fenway. Jose Canseco and Kevin Millar are good examples of righties who were better at fenway. Add Reggie Jefferson to the list of lefties. Righties that hit line drive home runs get killed cuz they lose Home Runs. Some think Manny is hurt by fenway. Leftie pull hitters are definately hurt. As is anyone who hits the ball alot to center.
  9. guapo34
    I'm in. I guess a thread talking about fantasy baseball draft strategy is now out of the question. That password sounds like the kind of password an idiot would put on his luggage.
  10. guapo34
    But how can you be so sure that if a player doesn't succeed in Boston or New York its because of pressure and not aging, changing leagues, or they just can't live up to a few career years before they got there.
  11. guapo34
    The Yankee farm system used to rank at the bottom of just about every prospect list. They've worked their way up to middle of the pack. I believe BA has them somewhere around 16. They aren't awful, but they aren't very good either. Every expert would agree the Red Sox have a much better system. The weekness of the Yankee system is all of their most promising prospects are AA or lower.
  12. guapo34
    And some people who do well in Boston/NY have struggled after leaving. Baseball players performance are a volatile thing. I don't buy into the theory that playing in Boston or New York have anything to do with that.
  13. guapo34
    I don't think Loretta or Cano are going to be our lefty in the bullpen. Back on topic, theres a good chance we don't have a left in our pen this year. I like Dinardo, but if he makes the team it won't be because hes a lefty. He's not a guy whose any better against lefties than he is righties. He'll be a long reliever if he makes the team. You don't judge a long reliever by how he pitches against lefties. He's definately good enough to be a long reliever on a major league team. The problem is we have 7 starting pitchers along with Foulke, Timlin, Seanez, Tavarez, Riske, and possibly Hansen. The only guy that Dinardo is ahead of is Hansen, and thats only because of severly limited experience for Hansen. Most people expect Hansen to be called up at some point.
  14. guapo34
    How do they find someone to protect him when they refuse to trade prospects?
  15. guapo34
    That can't be right. I'm 99.9% positive we have him for 2 years before he hits free agency.
  16. guapo34
    The only way you can include the money to get Coco is if you look at it as Rentaria for Coco and remove Marte from the equation, and then the trade looks even better. You can't include both because there was never an option to have that 11 million and still have Marte. If its Edgar Rentaria and 11 million for Coco then you're getting the better player for less money. Coco won't make 19 million over the next 3 years, and thats the difference if take 11 million from Edgar's deal.
  17. guapo34
    But the rest of the bullpen sucked. And despite what happend last year, I'm not sure I really believe its possible for a pitcher to be a very good pitcher with no one on base, and awful with a man on. It defies logic. If he's that bad at pitching with a slide step, i think he'd stop using one. And his problems weren't just with guys on first, so I really don't think that was the issue. I'm going with blind luck he was so good with the bases empty and terrible with runners on.
  18. guapo34
    You're making a judgement on his ability to get lefties out based on 58 at bats. I like pappelbon a lot, and the important thing to do is to look at numbers against righties/lefties for the pitcher, and not just hand what they release the ball with, but you also can't make judgements with a sample size of 58 at bats.
  19. guapo34
    The $11 million sent to Atlanta was for two reasons. 1. Edgar Rentaria was overpaid. In order to get fair value for a player who is overpaid, you should send money. 2. Marte was likely to be very underpaid for the first 6 years of major league service. None of this has anything to do with Coco Crisp.
  20. guapo34
    Completely wrong. Brian Cashman has had his pick of players. Billy Beane is forced to adjust every year because he has one of the cheapest owners in baseball. He had to trade Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder because he was about to lose them and get nothing in return. He lost Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Keith Foulke, and Miguel Tejada becuase they didn't have hte money to sign them. He put a team together that made the post season four years in a row despite having the lowest payroll in his division. Every one of those years They won the division. Last year their good young SS got hurt and their offense fell apart, but they'll have a good offense this year. They lost in the post season all those years in 5 game series. There is a lot of luck that goes into a 5 game series. You can't be serious.
  21. guapo34
    How can you say, "if a higher OBP lead to more runs, then it would correlate higher." when you've admitted correlation has nothing to do with magnitude. One person that agrees with me, Paul Depodesta. Billy Beane used him to judge exactly this sort of thing, and he concluded OBP is 3 times more important. This is found in Moneyball. I'm not arguing with Clay Davenport. Nowhere in his article does he say a player with a 300 obp and a 400 slg is more valuable than a player with a 400 obp and a 300 slg. I'm sure he knows thats not true.
  22. guapo34
    No, its not telling enough. Singles correlate better than grand slams. That doesn't mean they lead to more runs. A higher OBP leads to more runs than SLG. Its a generally accepted fact among people who study these things. The person that did that study for BP would say the exact same thing.
  23. guapo34
    So how do you argue that a slightly higher correlation means OBP isn't more important than slugging? The two have nothing to do with each other.
  24. guapo34
    You're doing good so far. This is where you're wrong. Correlation deals with how linear the relationship is. It has NOTHING to do with the magnitude. Singles would correlate with runs scored more than Grand Slams would. That doesn't mean singles lead to more runs than Grand Slams do.
  25. guapo34
    We can't trade Lowrie yet. Theres a rule you can't trade a player until a year after the draft, and I'm not sure but it might even be a year after they sign. Rotoworld speculated that the Red Sox knew the Angels would never give up that much for Manny and just made the offer in order to show Manny that we're still trying. The last problem I see here is the money. We'd have to send a ton of it to the Angles in a deal like this. Theres no way the Angels can add $25 million in payroll this year.
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