guapo34

Last year Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, JD Drew, Troy Glaus, Pedro, Magglio Ordonez, Edgar Renteria, Jason Varitek, And Carlos Beltran all got 10 million a year or more. Carl Pavano, Russ Ortiz, Derek Lowe, Matt Clement, Jeff Kent, Al Leiter, and Erik Milton all got over 8. This offseason most people agree there are more teams that want to spend money than last year, and not as many players. You think Manny would get 3 years and 30 million?

Santana had an era of 4.65 and a whip of 1.37, very similar numbers to Matt Clement. I was just implying that our offense would score much less runs without Manny. I like Santana a lot. I know hes young and i know he might get better. I'm just pointing out that he has a long way to go before hes worth being a centerpiece of a trade for a future hall of famer. And compairing what Guerrero did with no protection to what Ortiz would do isn't very valid. They are completely different hitters. I love Ortiz but i don't remember the last time he hit a home run on a pitch 6 inches off the plate inside and above his letters. A hitter like guerrero doesn't need protection.

David Wright is never getting traded. They pay him next to nothing for big time production. If he were a free agent he'd probably get 5 years, 70 million. Manny as a free agent would probably go for 3 year 15 million. Small upgrade for the mets for an additional 18+ million. In my opnion, Cameron plus two prospects, heilman and milledge, for Manny is one of the better trades I've seen. We save 13 million which would could use to sign a big name free agent. If you throw konerko, burnett, or giles into that deal it looks a lot better. Definately like that better than glaus and erstad, though i still think we might be able to do better.

put him on the red sox with darin erstad at first base and manny gone and he might win 10 games.

you need to give a gm more than 2 years to implement a plan. Depodesta made some good moves for the dodgers and he made some bad ones. He was certainly going to bring on the young guys in that great farm system. If i were a dodger fan i'd be hoping for a new GM that isn't going to mortgage the future to win now.

I might be the only one, but I wouldn't mind seeing him on the Pats. Definately looks like the best WR in football to me. He's been a distraction off the field, but hes done nothing but put up better numbers than any reciever other than Steve Smith. And I'm sure he's getting extra attention for defenses every week. The Eagles couldn't have done a much worse job handling the situation if you ask me. He's making like 3 million this year and they wouldn't even talk to him about giving him any more money? If this were Tom Brady and the last guranteed year of a contract and he wanted to renegotiate i think the media and definately this area would have taken a much different view.

I completely agree. However, any young stud players in return would I think would be good enough. Problem is finding someone to take that contract without taking overpaid player on the decline in return. Hopefully the sox can find two teams who really want him and he'll go to and get them in a bidding war. If this doesn't happen, I hope they can change his mind and convince him to come back. If they trade him and free up salary hopefully thats done as early as possible so we can get it on the free agent market and make a play for giles/BJ Ryan/AJ Burnett. And everyone talking about Mike Cameron, theres serious questions about his health. I've heard reports he's still having blurred vision after that collision with Beltran.

Erstad stold 10 bases last year. I don't think hes getting any faster. Considering how many more attempts the Angels have than the Red Sox, Erstad would probably be good for 3sb next year with a caught stealing. 33 games at Fenway is a lot less worthwhile to look at then his last 5 full seasons where he has been a below average major league hitter. Playing first base, a position where championship teams should be looking for far above average major league hitters. Errors as a first basemen are the worst thing you can look at when rating defensive ability. How well can he pick balls out of the dirt and handle bad throws from Reteria and Youkilis. I doubt he can do it nearly well enough to justify that poor offensive production and $8.5 million contract for a first basemen.

I think your view of sabermetrics is terribly misguided. I am far from a stats geek. I don't understand half the stats those guys use. But you seem to have the impression Sabermetricians believe they can predict the future. If they could they'd be playing the lottery not writing about baseball. Maybe some of the writers you have read do believe they know everything, and its true that many are arogant. I am a big fan of Rob Neyer and he can be pretty arrogant, but he knows what hes talking about and I enjoy when he writes something against conventional wisdom that is pretty clearly true. As for your argument that if someone went purely by the numbers Scott Podsednick and Geoff Blum would not have hit game winning home runs, no one expected that. The White Sox didn't bring podsednick on board to hit home runs. They got lucky. He didn't hit a home run because of some clutch intangibles he holds. He hit a home run becuase he put a good swing on a bad pitch. The odds of this happening were extemely low. Same goes for Blum. The White Sox were a very good team this year. They also got pretty lucky, just like the Red Sox last year.

So you think it would take an ace pitcher 2 prime prospects and a "super utility player" to get Howard. If you were the phillies GM you wouldn't trade him for anything less. BUT you won't trade Sanchez for him because hw could be an ace pitcher??? Of course if you think a healthy Jim Thome might sit on the Phillies bench next year maybe this isn't worth debating.

This is going to be fun 2005 Avg Obp Slg OPS Darin Erstad .273 .325 .371 .696 Kevin Millar .272 .355 .399 .753 A 696 OBP out of your first basemen would devastate a team. Alex Cora posted an OPS of .704 last year. I bet hes faster and would play better defense at first than Darin Erstad. Since those things are so important why don't we play him at first base next year? And it won't even cost us 13 million.

Thanks. I know he asked to be traded. I just don't think Antonio Otsuka and Brian Lawrence are enough for a solid starting pitcher. If its the best offer we get, then we probably won't have much of a choice. Of course Lawrence just got traded so this specific trade doesn't really matter. Even with Wells trade request does everyone really think that we can't do better than this??

I like farnsworth a lot but hes gonna get a lot more than 3. Anything less than 5.5 and I'd be surprised. Arroyo is not nearly enough to get Overbay. That Manny trade is awful. Darin Erstad is worse than Millar offensively and is scheduled to make 8.5 next year. With us paying 5 on top of that we're paying 14 million for Erstad and Santana. No thanks. I also don't think people realize how good David Wells was for us last year. He had two terrible outings. After getting healthy he was our best pitcher for most of the year.

Jim Thome makes 14 million a year. The red sox have had trouble trading Manny and his 20/yr contract, and Manny is at least a top 5 hitter in the american league every year. Thome hit all of 7 home runs last year. They need to trade either him or Howard. You can't sit Thome on the bench for 14 million and you can't sit Howard when you could move him for quality talent. No one is giving an ace young pitcher for him because there simply aren't many of them. An ace young pitcher is far more valuable than a young stud first basemen. I think its definately possible they trade him for two top prospects. If the Sox don't at least offer a package like Hanley and Anibel Sanchez I'd be disapointed.

Three years is too long to leave shoppach in the minors. If he was our Catcher of the future then you don't give Tek 4 years last offseason. He excelled at AAA this year. I'd like to think we can get good value if we moved him, and worry about our next catcher later. I also think we should trade Hanley. Remember reading somewhere his numbers are fairly similar to Donnie Sadlers at the same age. I know there are guys who became stars that also put up similar numbers, but Hanley has yet to hit the ball like people said he would. If his value is as high as it seems, I'd move him.

It'd be great if those guys turn into Aces. From what I've read Lester has the best chance while papelbon seems to be the closest to a sure thing. However, Pappelbon is the only one who will be arbitration eligible by then, and it'll only be his first year. Assuming all 3 of these guys turn into great pitchers, and they are all still with the sox and not traded, both big ifs, we still would have lots of money to spend and 2 more positions to fill in the starting rotation. Why wouldn't you try and get even better and sign 1/2 big name pitchers?

Agree the Jags aren't terrible. But when the best compliment you can give to one team on their schedule is "the Jags were no pushover," then thats not saying much.

The teams they have played have a combined record of 14-30. 16 games under .500 and a winning percentage of .318!!! Could it get any easier for them??? I haven't heard one national commentator even question if they are the best team in football. What have they proven by beating the jaguars, ravens, and a Rams teams without their starting QB?Everyone is so quick to point out the Bengals fast start was against crappy teams. What about the Colts? This may be the easiest first 7 games in the history of the NFL.

In the next couple years there isn't going to be a dominant starting pitcher to hit free agency. I think the sox pretty much need to count on Schilling, Pappelbon, and guys at the same level as Wakefield/Arroyo. Improve the bullpen, improve the Defense, get a more balanced offense. In 3 years the sox aren't commited to anyone and will have all the money in the world to spend. 3 years down the road they should be smarter and target 1/2 aces when we do get these big contracts, rentaria/varitek/manny..etc. The guys I'd like to see them target are Roy Oswalt, Rich Harden, and Dontrelle Willis. Of course in 3 years any of these guys could get hurt/fall apart/get signed by the team they're with and never hit free agency. But since there are no aces coming any time soon I thought it would be fun to project.

I have to asmit I didn't know much about Tracy until reading your post so i looked up his numbers. Same age as Howard, and his average may have been better last year, by 20 points, his OBP was only 3 points higher, not very significant. Howard's slugging was 14 points higher, again closer than i was expecting. To me they seem like similar players and I would be extremely happy to get either. Not sure about eithers defense, but Tracy appears to be the better athlete, but thats not saying much. Tracy has one more year of major league service. Which is good in that he has more experience, but bad because he'd be eligible for arbitration/free agency quicker. I think the larger issue here is I don't see why the Diamondbacks would trade Tracy. Maybe if Manny goes there we could get him along with Glaus, but I'd rather see us keep Manny and I wouldn't be surprised if they wouldn't include Tracy in the trade anyway. He got 503 at bats last year so I don't think they're having trouble finding him playing time. The Phillies have a real situation with both Howard and Thome with no DH in the NL and only able to play one. If the Phillies were smart they'd eat 90% of Thome's contract if they had to and trade him. I don't think they'll do that though.

Interesting offer, and with us picking up all of Clements salary that might get it done, but i'm not sure if Clement is that big of an improvement over there other guys. Also, the only reason Wells wants to leave the Sox is to go to the West Coast so I don't think he fits in well here. If they'd rather have major league ready pitching than sanchez I think Arroyo fits best. Of course I'd probably do Sanchez, Arroyo, and Hanley for Howard cuz i think he's that good.

Tori Hunter is definately the best centerfielder out there but the Twins aren't just going to give him away. They've said they are only going to trade him if they get blown over with an offer. He'd probably cost hanley and lester, hes coming off an injure, and he's owed over 10 million next year. Brian Giles is great offensively, but doesn't have the spead to play center. I think we'd be better off signing either Preston Wilson or Juan Encarnacion. Cheaper options that can both play defense and hit as well as Hunter. Encarnacion is younger, by 2 years, and played in an extreme pitchers park last year. He's the guy I'd like to see the Sox go after.

Hi, my first post on the forum. I'd just like to give my opinion on the offseason. Keep Manny. You aren't going to be able to get enough in return for Manny to justify moving him. And if you do save money there aren't any guys that are free agents that can replace him either. If you take his 20 million and get Konerko and Burnett you've gotten worse for more money. At first base I think you have to try and trade for Ryan Howard. He had an unbelievable rookie season and is only 25 years old. When the Phillies go out and try to trade Jim Thome and find little interest a lot of people think they may have to trade this kid. I think a package of hanley ramirez and annibal sanchez would get it done. Third base you have to give to Youk. Mueller is just as good but would cost 3 million more. Seems like an easy decision. Damon is going to be overpaid to play center. His arm is horrible and his hitting is streaky. He seems like the type of player that will break down with age. Sign a cheap short term option at center or trade for a young cheap guy who can run. Any leftover money should go to the bullpen. Sign either farnsworth or BJ Ryan. I'm not sure what you do with wells, maybe thats where we can get our centerfielder cuz it doesn't look like hes coming back. Starting rotation of Schilling, Wake, Clement, Arroyo, and Pappelbon.