ksushi

They only make big league projections. Its a big league book. So no. But yeah, how can they make pitcher projections for wins? I hope no one takes this as gospel because there is no mathematical formula for how a game will unfold. I think thats a little weird.

Eh, its not like there is a lot going on in baseball right now, so gotta find a way to pass the time i suppose.

Thats an awesome point, I just read this and haven't read of the posts under it yet, but this is key. You do need a leadoff guy who can score from second on a single or get to 3rd from first. This is something thats key. Moneyball is all well and good but I do think that speed at the top does matter. I hadn't really thought of that. I am slightly less in favor of youk leading off now although I do like his OBP and wouldn't be upset at all if he did lead off. but yeah, care to make that last statement interesting? I will put money on Youk having a higher OBP, if given everyday duties, than Boggs 320ish career BA. I think its .328 someone might have to give 'er a looksy, I'm on the lazy side and plan to not look it up myself. If thats his career batting average I guarentee youk will have higher OBP than that.

Edmonds most certainly is a long shot. I don't think the sox have the kind of stuff to offer. Since he's a little on the older side and is talking retirement, its likely that any offer the Cards make to anyone for young kids won't get much attention other than a brief chuckle. They'll be looking for the sort of deal that the Yanks landed Johnson with, a pitcher like Vazquez around the age of 29 or 30 with some upside left and then a hitter. The closest we would have is Clement and Nixon, and then they'd probably need a lower level prospect like an Ellsbury or a Moss to kick the deal. I don't think Clement really wows the cardinals very much being a lock for the playoffs and all - we all know what kind of a performance Clement is capable of in the playoffs. Clement is best suited being offered to small market teams with less than rowdy fan bases. Thats where he has his value. I think the Cardinals would rather make a push with what they have. They came damn close last year to the series... with no Rolen. I'd hold tight if I were them unless someone like the Jays came out of no where and offered Vernon Wells and Gusatvo Chacin. That would be different.

New center field option that people haven't come up with yet - David Dejesus. I don't know much about his availability other than that the Royals seem to be trying to make an inexpensive push by acquiring some veteran talent, I wouldn't be surprised to see them jump at a chance to acquire a vet who is on the young side with nerves of steel like Arroyo. Depending on how eager the Royals are to hang onto Dejesus, I think he might be a better option in centerfield than any of the other names mentioned. As much as I like Reed, Dejesus seems to be a much more palatable immediate option - and is only 1 year older than Reed. Have a gander. I don't think this guy is the type who would bring Lester into trade talks, but if thats the case I would say forget it. A team like the Royals, however, would seem to be in the sort of position where they are teeming with young talent, and can easily acquire more via the draft, but veterans seem to avoid that place like it was prison. I do think that the sox could definetly put together a reasonable package to bring back Dejesus if the Royals would at all move him. I think it would probably make sense for them to move him for the right deal. He doesn't blow anyone away, but is certainly a solid player to say the least. Arroyo and Mota, or Clement and Cora or something along those lines I think would be something to consider. Cash would have to go along as well. Just a thought.

Well it isn't for sure where they will start. Its likely they will end up in AAA, but spring training is there to give fringe guys like that a shot. I personally think that if we do deal Mota, Hansen will be given a good look in ST.

Sorry, thought I was on a baseball forum. Lighten up, enjoy some baseball talk. My entire point is that we already have offense, so offense isn't a sticking point when shopping for a CFer. You're taking this as a blanket statement. Read what I'm posting. Sure when you evaluate players you look at all aspects of their game, but so long as they aren't going to hit under the mendoza line, in this instance it doesn't matter. You're getting me all wrong here. I do think defense is very important, just as important as offense, but right now we have all the offense we need and centerfield is a key position defensively. The idea that because we have a lot of hitting we don't need to stock pile more from a position where defense takes favor makes plenty of sense.

If you read my post, and caught yourself up with what we're talking about, we're talking about a single player here, not a team philosophy. I'm the biggest pitching and defense whore on this board so don't bother telling me that. Once again, not talking team here, talking about one specific player. In this case, defense is going to be the key at SS and CF. We're not looking for hitting because we already have it. Manny and Ortiz at 3-4 in a lineup is enough offense to win you a division if you have the defense and the pitching to put a stopper on the other team. Crisps upside is his bat, Reeds upside is his defense. Crisp has a short arm and can't go back on balls. He gets bad jumps and takes bad routes in general, but his speed can compensate but really he is best suited for left field. Reed has also struggled with his routes but he's got a solid arm and can go back and charge balls well. He also had a potent bat in the minors, so its likely he'll hit. Now, I'm not going to keep lobbying Reed ( I This is where you are confused. The AL east is teeming with good hitters already. Each team in the division is stocked with hitters, even the devil rays have a good core of young hitters and they will score runs. Therefore, its the team that allows the fewest that will win this division. I know you have to have an equal balance of all three, pitching hitting and defense, but when hitting is so abundant you have to focus on bringing in the defense to stop the other teams from having their way with you. Get me yet? I have one foot out the door right now, but if you're not getting my drift let me know and when I come back I'll go on another rant. Its fun. Actually, someone a couple pages back said that Coco had less errors in one hundred and something games in center than reed. Something like that, so yeah someone did actually say that. Why? Sure, writers have their in's but I don't think the front office is really saying anything. You'd be hardpressed to find me an article right now where someone from the front office actually said this first hand. They've got a list of guys right now, and based on what teams we have been most in contact with, they draw their connections. I don't think its safe to assume that just because Edes is a beast that he always has the in. I'm probably the biggest Gammons lover here, I read everything he writes and I take it as gospel for the most part but I just don't think that the Red Sox will be willing to pay the Crisp price tag. Would you give up a potential perennial 40/100 guy for Crisp? I doubt it, if you said yes, you'd either be crazy, or you just don't see Marte's value. He's a potential GGer with power to all fields. No way do I give up a bluechip for crisp. The Guardians are said to have drawn the line at Marte, if no Marte then no deal. Given Crisps defensive ability, I wouldn't be willing to part with Marte or Mota. We need closer insurance if Foulke shits the bed again and I think Mota is our best insurance right now with Timlin a close second. Price tags always come down though. If they were willing to do Crisp for Arroyo straight up, and the Mariners still were pining for Lester, I'd do the deal for crisp. I suspect that the M's will chill out and we'll likely end up landing Reed for Arroyo and Shoppach or Clement and Shoppach. I'd do that deal especially after signing flaherty, it looks like thats what the sox would be prepared to do.

Yeah, and I'm going to re-disagree with all three of you because his bat cannot make up for defense given that we already have adequate offense and might find ourselves hurting for defense. Forget the traditional notion that defense comes second and that hitting is the true gauge of a players value, in this case, its the opposite. Errors are an overrated stat, they are judge by someone up in a booth and depending on who is in that booth, one day a bad play might be an error, the next its a base hit. Not to mention like ORS said you need to get to a ball in order for the scorer to officially call it an error. So just because one guy has been determined by the press to be our top priority doesn't mean its actually the best option. All things considered, Coco Crisp is not worth what it would take to get him assuming Marte would be the price tag. Forget it. Hitting is not going to be the key to the east. So what if Coco is average defensivley, you go with the guy who plays better defense (reed) and who might not hit as well. But considering he was suffering from a wrist injury and is 1 year removed from being in BBA top ten of their top 100 prospects, I would say he is the better go.

Actually, you can't really ever get enough pitching, and I would say Alex Cora is about as capable a defensive SS as any. Offense being a non-issue at that position I think we need CFer and we might be ok to go. 1B is also taken care of as Youk has plus hands over on that corner too. CF is all we need at the moment and with our run on pitching, we'll likely be able to acquire one. Zito is a bit much though, I agree. Beane is going to hold out for a Lester or a Papelbon if he decides to deal with the sox. Andy Marte really isn't the Billy Beane type, but he does love youkilis. Personally, I don't see the sense in giving up a pitching prospect the caliber which beane will ask for in a Zito trade. Zito is bad against good teams and very good against the bad ones as shown in krazees nice splits up a ways. I'll pass on this. My friend dave is a big numbers nerd and he was talking to me a little while ago about a stat in baseball prospectus called 'stuff' Its basically every pitching stat combined into one and it comes out with one convient little number that gives you a pretty accurate judge of how effective the pitcher is. I don't know something like that, but its mostly used for minor league prospects. A 'stuff' rating of 25 is really good, 30 is can't miss. Jon Lester has a 35. Thats all i know about it, but thats awesome. No way do I give that up for Zito.

Won't happen. Milledge really isn't a very good player anyways. I'd be much happier grooming our own draft picks for this year and keeping Manny for the duration of his contract.

Things weren't wrong with Mota, he got hurt and then McKeon just never pitched him in a key situation. Bullpen guys run on adrenaline. McKeon never put Mota in one adrenaline pumping situation all year long because his curve wasn't sharp in the weeks before hitting the DL. Mota is very good. People forget that, and now there are Mota trade rumors. I highly doubt mota gets dealt for Crisp. Crisp sucks in CF.

I don't know about that, I think scouting is huge in determining which players have the tools to make it in the major leagues. Scouts are underrated because of the notion that its easy. You're wrong. Scouting isn't just limited to the less known players, everyone is scouted. Scouted doesn't mean discovered, it means evaluated.

I have a feeling these guys were scouted before they were drafted, also just a hunch. I used to think that the draft was this magical thing that brought you wonderful players without you having to find them or anything, but then I turned 12 and stopped being ridiculous.

They won't trade DiNardo because he has more value on the team than he does in a trade. In a trade DiNardo doesn't really make anyones eyes light up but he has the potential to be a solid pitcher. Being a lefty I think that puts it further out of the picture. I would be very surprised if Mota was traded. Very surprised. This likely doesn't point to anything except the FO having a lack of confidence in Keith Foulke.

Speed at the top is one stategy, but I'd like to know when the last time the Red Sox ever utilized speed was. The smart money is on the sox putting youk at lead off unless they acquire a lead off hitter you can't turn down. OBP is very valuable if you have either more OBP behind it, or someone who can put a charge. Look at the yankees, jeter doesn't have blazing wheels, very smart baserunner but nothing incredible with speed. Bat a-rod behind him and it doesnt matter.

Those are two rather large if's, chief. When has clement ever proven capable of holding his ERA below four in the American league? He is a notorious first half pitcher with a precipitous second half decline in most years. I mean sure, he could win a cy young if he isn't traded and can hold an ERA well under four, i mean 1.87 is well under four, if he can do what roger did, Clement could be a Cy Younger. RIght?

Clement is not better than Pavano if Pavano is healthy. That is my guy instinct on that one. Wells will likely be dealt and arroyo = wang in that case, and our spot started is lenny dinardo who in my opinion is better than Chacon.

Yeah, this actually is curious why the red sox didn't get involved. I don't want to hear that he "isn't their type of guy" Right now anyone who can play CF is their type of guy.

on those bottom avatars when you have red letters like that on white and black its hard to see, you should put a drop shadow on it to give it more definition and make it look better. just go into the layers tab to do that I think. I can take the occasional request during the week, we have photoshop at school. My home computer is too slow, but I can do stuff sparingly during the week. I'm not too shabby.

I put zero stock in that.

Are you implying he should grow a pair, to simply suck them up? that sounds painful, sorry immature of me, but i had to point that out.

Its not like the red sox will not be allowed to add via free agency down the road either. And in 2 years, schill will retire, and likely so will wakefield. Giving up your prospects just because you don't have enough to field a team by themseleves is not a solution. I'll roll the dice with the kids, personally, and feed the beast with free agents rather than acquire Tejada with all my young kids and rely solely on free agency 2 or 3 years from now. Am I getting through at all? Eh?

Maybe Manny should stop being manny, maybe Manny should be someone without multiple personalities for a little while.

The sox philosophy has been for the past three years, build for the future. Considering the future is about two years away from arrival, why bail now? Doing that would be terrible. Lester Marte and Shoppach is the kind of deal you would propose? I'm happy cooler heads are in charge, not a knock on you at all. Thats a rational way to go about it if you are say... The Braves. Or the Dodgers. It makes perfect sense, but the position the Red Sox are in, as a large market team in a league approaching many draft restrictions to come in the next couple years, will be shut out of young talent, except via selling the roster. Therefore, its imperative to hang on to the young guns we have in the system right now. I don't know about you, but most of the red sox fans don't have a win now mentality, they have a keep winning mentality. A oft re-tooling youth strategy is ideal for a team like this, and its getting under way just in time for the draft restrictions. I dont know all the details, but something like the top ten teams will get the bottom 10 picks of the 1st round only, in order from worst to best and only one pick each. That shuts a lot of teams out of young talent and really helps out the smaller market teams. I think that is great. However, I think its great for the league and not the Red Sox. The Sox have to handle this and right now they are in the perfect position to do that with the youth they have available to them right now. Dealing that away would compromise all of that and win now lose later could become something we are staring right in the face. Big market teams aren't crippled by it or anything, it just further curtails any one team from monopolizing all the talent in the league. A few good drafts and a hefty payroll could set a team up for a decade or more if they did it right. Under the current system it would only be a matter of time before that happened. The Angels are close. The sox could have gotten close. Its easier said than done, but I'm glad that stuff is happening. I can't find any specific details online, just whispers of these changes here and there on ESPN etc. and other message boards. People bring it up at sosh from time to time. If anyone could find the specific changes that would be dope ill, homie. ksushi, out. alright I'll never end a post like that again I'm sorry I subjected all you guys to that.