The problem is, you have an idea in your head, the idea that the team is better with Molina, and therefore you "find" evidence to support it through assumption. You are assuming that Molina can "steal" strikes that Posada can't. If this were true, it would be true of every pitcher he caught for in comparison to Posada, and it would be apparent in the stats. I say it would be apparent because the impact of a strike or ball call on the 1st pitch is a .200 swing in OPS....from there the gap gets wider. If he was able to do it regularly, you'd see suppressed offense when he caught. You did see that last year, but remember what happened. Posada caught most of the early games, when Hughes and Kennedy were s***ing all over themselves, and Molina caught their best pitcher, Mussina, all year. In 2007, when the staff was more stable, their catcher OPSA was identical.
You just admitted to being impressed by common sense. This is why people think you have very little of it.