example1

No Buchholz in the rotation, huh? You're going to go with Lester as your 3? Maybe that's how your team would go, but I'd be willing to bet that Clay Buchholz is a starter next year. Did you WATCH his starts? Unless they're planning on having him just sit on a beach next spring he should be pitching for the Big Sox. He has done everything he needs to do at the AAA and AA levels and his stuff is probably as good, if not better than Dice-Ks. Who is the FA starter they're hoping to land? Here's a list I found: Starting pitchers Tony Armas (30) - $5MM mutual option for '08 Kris Benson (33) - $7.5MM club option for '08 Paul Byrd (37) - $8MM club option for '08 Shawn Chacon (30) Roger Clemens (46) Matt Clement (33) Bartolo Colon (35) Josh Fogg (31) Casey Fossum (30) Freddy Garcia (32) Tom Glavine (42) Livan Hernandez (33)* Jason Jennings (29) Joe Kennedy (29) Byung-Hyun Kim (29) Brian Lawrence (32) Jon Lieber (38) Kyle Lohse (29) Rodrigo Lopez (32) Greg Maddux (42) - $8.75MM player option or $11MM club option for '08 Eric Milton (32) Tomo Ohka (32) Russ Ortiz (34) Odalis Perez (31) - $9MM club option for '08 Andy Pettitte (36) - $16MM player option for '08 Joel Pineiro (29) Kenny Rogers (43) Curt Schilling (41) Carlos Silva (29) Julian Tavarez (35) - $3.85MM club option for '08 John Thomson (34) Brett Tomko (35) - $4.5MM mutual option for '08 Steve Trachsel (37) - $4.75MM club option for '08 Koji Uehara (33) Jeff Weaver (31) David Wells (45) Kip Wells (31) Randy Wolf (31) - $9MM club option for '08 Jamey Wright (34) Jaret Wright (32) Lots of multi-year crap if you ask me. It's a list of ineffective chumps. Buchholz is more valuable (and better) than any of these guys. Buchholz SHOULD be starting game 4 of the ALCS this year, but they wisely let him rest. He's good enough to do that without a doubt; I said that before he threw a no-hitter. :lol: Do you know someone in Minnesota? Mauer, who is from Minneapolis and has been a star there since high school, has 3 years left on his contract and will undoubtedly be approached about an extension. He's a good one to keep your eye on, but he won't become a Red Sox for another few years at the earliest.

I've spent a fair amount of time on a ball field and I don't agree with you at all. Yes, in most amateur or 'normal' games of baseball there are guys on the field who "get it done" and others who clearly don't. Alex Rodriguez, he with the 500+ HR, on pace to possibly break the HR and H record in his career, while winning multiple MVPs playing both SS and 3B, one of the most talented baseball players of all time, is someone who gets it done on the field. The fact that you claim it is clutch or balls or whatever that gets one over the top indicates that you must have neither, since--despite all your time on the ballfield--he continues to play and you do not. Or, if you do, nobody is going to be willing to pay you 30m a season to do so. I feel confident in that assertion, not even knowing you. Why? Because unless your name is Alex Rodriguez NOBODY is willing to come CLOSE to 30m a season to pay for your services. Is it because your balls weren't big enough, or because you weren't clutch that A-Rod was able to take this game by storm and you weren't? The point is that A-Rod has MAD skills. Don't even come CLOSE to being fooled about that. His personality may be annoying, and he looks like a douche, but you simply cannot argue with his production. Making claims about clutch and balls completely overlooks the fact that this guy has had MANY big at-bats in his career and has obviously come through. How about the HR off of Papelbon? How about the playoff stats I cited earlier about his at-bats against Pedro, Schilling, Santana and Joe Nathan? Was he "extra clutch" when he was batting then, and just left the clutch at home against Paul Byrd? Did the clutch he brought to the plate those days outweigh the clutch that Schilling and Santana brought to the park? Or, perhaps, is baseball much more about probability and luck than all this talk of balls and clutch would lead one to believe? I don't know what field you've been playing on where 54 HR and 156 RBI isn't "getting it done".

Because there aren't the OBP and defensive equivalents of both of those players available otherwise. I think you will see Jacoby Ellsbury--who provides the same speed, defense and power as Crisp--quickly take over for Crisp. Not because he's cheaper, or because he's younger, but because he's going to get on base AT LEAST .365, and Crisp can't. --Lugo on base this season: .294 --333 career and full-season career high of .362. --Alex Gonzalez (remember him?) career OBP: .295 --career full-season high: .325. So Lugo was an obvious upgrade in OBP and speed, over Gonzalez. Edgar Renteria had a full-season career high of .394, and a career average of .349. All things being equal, the Sox would rather that Renteria had worked out in Boston. His OBP would have been a huge reason, but the dealt him while he still had some upside on the market. If the sox are going to have someone with a lower OBP that player better come with another solid skill (such as speed, or the ability to catch Wakefield). The red sox put as much emphasis on OBP (as a reflection of plate control) as any team in baseball, especially in terms of development; Pedroia a perfect example. You couldn't find another Pedroia on the market. There are some similar hitters, but he is a non-superstar very good player.

Honestly, my stomach drops every time I think about this so-called "list" that is coming out. There are so many players who have used I'm at the point where I'm ready to not just write the user off as a creep and cheater. The problem is so pervasive at this point and we've all seen guys who have obviously used performance-enhancing drugs beat our teams. Jason Giambi, for instance. If they're not going to deal with him then they aren't (or shouldn't) deal with anyone. He has had a HUGE impact on the game in terms of run production and leading teams to the playoffs over the past few years. The whole thing is tainted so I'm not particularly interested in having more people thrown under the bus for the sake of reporting on findings. Either get a useful test for it, or deal with it privately (at first at least). My understanding was that it isn't until a 2nd offense that the name is released by MLB... I think I heard that somewhere. Is it because it is a congressional investigation that the names can be released?

Ummm, I should ask you the same thing since you've basically proven my point. My point is that a blanket statement like "A-Rod can't hit in the post-season" or "Of course he's a good player, but come October he chokes" are silly. Manny was seen as a choker for much of his career and then, suddenly, "found it" again (against Zito in the playoffs), got better pitches, made better contact, whatever, and now he's tied for most postseason HRs all time and nobody questions whether or not he can function in the playoffs; DESPITE having very similar numbers to A-Rod and an extended period of being called an overpaid, non-producer int he playoffs. A-Rod is hitting a .400 AVG against Big-Game Playoff Curt Schilling (with an .800 OPS), .333 against all-time great Pedro Martinez (with a 1.047 OPS), and .500 with a 1.167OPS against current-God Johan Santana. Joe Nathan? 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and a 2.000 OPS. Small sample sizes? Yep. That's what happens in the playoffs. Should we conclude that he OWNS great playoff pitching, but can't hit average playoff pitching? Should we conclude that playoff pitching (as some sort of non-existent entity) OWNS A-Rod? I don't think so. That's what people are saying when they say he's unable to produce in the clutch or in the playoffs, namely, that playoff pitching owns him. Anyone who is making the postseason argument as a reason to not WANT A-Rod on this team is shortsighted and doesn't understand probability and the nature of this game very well. I understand the crippling salary thing, but the over-reliance on playoff performance is absurd. The guy hit a HR in this past series for crying out loud and he is STILL getting on base at a .361 pace, despite series of .071 OBP (DET). Given that your numbers above actually support my view (that Manny is a great player whether in the playoffs or not, and A-Rod has similar playoff numbers) I'm not even sure why you're "ummm what is your point again" deserves a response this long. I'm pretty sure you get my argument TheKilo, so I'm extending it for other people. I didn't say A-Rod has been BETTER than Manny, because Manny has broken out of his 'playoff slump' and is doing what Manny normally does, this time it's just in the playoffs. This all basically comes down to a discussion about "clutch hitting" and I don't believe it exists. I don't think players can turn it on and turn it off like a light switch. There may be a bit of that going on, in terms of higher concentration etc., but all discussion about "clutch" performances are overblown and completely overlook any impact that pressure situations may have on pitchers. So for a guy who sucks so much how do we explain that obvious success against guys like Schilling, Pedro, Santana, and Joe Nathan? I explain it by saying the overall playoff stats are misleading, particularly if you only look at the past few years.

They aren't tolerated by fans who are shortsighted, particularly when his frustration hasn't even been for our team. Do you really expect 10 more years of A-Rod "only" hitting .280/.361/.483 in the playoffs? Manny Ramirez's career postseason numbers: .260./362./508 He's a choker too, apparently.

It's too bad if what you say is true, because I think that A-Rod was disliked in NY because he didn't win a WS and he may leave because of it. Even when they came around and liked him because of a MONSTER year he wanted to say "F-CK YOU NY". Everyone can see that. It's similar to what's going on with JD Drew this year, but the team has done well and Drew has shown signs of life recently so he's not getting booed out of the park. SMART fans know that A-Rod is a good player and want him batting over just about anyone else in baseball regardless of the situation. What do you do to break a slump? You play through it. The way I see it, the question isn't "who would take A-Rod and his playoff crappiness?"; the quesiton is "who is going to own A-Rod when he puts up 5 HR in a 5 game series, breaks the all-time HR record and god-knows what else."? His playoff problems-insofar as he has problems--are mental and they are absolutely not insurmountable. Having bad luck and bad at bats in the playoffs is not some physical disability. It is a combination of selective data mining in the media, fan sentiment, and a player having a statistical slump at a time when, all things being equal, fans would rather he didn't. Jeter, Damon, Vlad, Manny have all struggled for extended periods in the playoffs and don't get that much criticism and baseless assumptions such as "A-Rod can't perform in the playoffs".

That's the whole point. Who do we get to replace Manny when he inevitably ends his Red Sox career? Who is available this year or next to replace him. If someone were able to point out--for instance--that someone like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday or Miguel Cabrera were available then I would say don't sign A-Rod, but the question is WHO will that player be. Fukudome could be the wildcard here. Could he be a 4th OF next year, after dealing Crisp and then be the opposite corner OF with Drew and Ellsbury for the years to come? I think Fukudome could realistically add 20HR/100RBI from a corner OF position, which would be pretty solid for a #5 type hitter.

I think that's the point TheKilo. It is very hard to measure, but my guess is that the Sox will look at this based on WARP and VORP and consider: Schilling will not be adding to the VORP/WARP totals (perhaps balanced by Buchholz's rise) Manny will not be adding to the VORP/WARP totals (not balanced by anything) Lowell will not be adding to the VORP/WARP totals (and if he does it will be for 10-12m a year as he ages) So, are a diminished Manny and Lowell plus Buchholz equal to current Manny and Lowell plus Schilling? How much can we reasonably expect from Mike Lowell? If he does this 25HR/115 RBI thing for the next few years then it is a no-brainer. However, if he's insisting on 4-5 years at a rate reasonably expect for those numbers and the Sox FO doesn't have confidence that he can keep it up, then he will be moving on. Then it becomes an issue of replacing either your 3B or 1B. I don't see great 1B options available, and the best player in history is available at 3B. I don't think people should be shocked if we go for him. Don't get too mad at Boras folks. He's not a lot of fun to deal with, and his greed makes all of us look bad as baseball fans, but honestly, can any of us blame him for squeezing all the money out of these teams? When you have a player like Dice-K or A-Rod who singlehandedly sells tickets, don't they deserve a fair share of the sales? Actors and actresses get paid millions of dollars for movies, because they are the main event in the movie. The same is true of A-Rod. Consider that A-Rod's asking price--say 300m over 10 years--is roughly what Oprah makes in one year (she made something like 250m last year). She earns that because she does what nobody else can do--get viewers consistently--and A-Rod does what other players can't do (though he is more closely rivaled and that is reflected by the fact that other players have enormous contracts as well). The question is whether what he can do is valuable enough for the Red Sox to make that investment for the next--say--8 years. My gut tells me they will participate in driving up the price with a 'reasonable' offer in the 23m range, but they won't go to the mat with Boras. My gut also tells me that without A-Rod this Yankee team becomes much less formidable, and with Pettitte and Posada and Rivera also looking around at other teams, the loss of A-rod would be the definitive end of an era in NY. Good riddance!!

I'm pretty sure that TheKilo is right. VORP does not count defense, and it is a measurement of a players additional value to a team comprised solely of league average players (in all categories). Therefore, using VORP (via Runs Created forumula based on the teams runs scored and runs allowed stats) gives you any players added value independent of those around them. There probably are stats you could use that take other players into account, but VORP isn't one of them. I think it is pretty easy to say that having more men on base increases the opportunity to create runs and to drive them in, as well as other things such as getting better pitches and being able to work more walks. I want someone to prove to me why it is at all reasonable to think that players get WORSE around A-Rod, or why they believe that A-Rod can't perform in the clutch. In fact, to take it a step further, simply prove that clutch hitting exists in any significant way and I will quickly say "A-Rod hasn't produced in the past, so he isn't likely to in the future". The problem that this post gets at is that the Red Sox are going to be without Manny most likely following next year. He is getting older, his contract is expiring and his production has started to diminish somewhat (if only in the number of games played). So the question is who replaces him. A-Rod is the guy the Sox have had their eyes on since 2003 and have shown that they are willing to move Manny to make it happen. If not A-Rod this year then who afterwards? What is more valuable to the Sox front office right now? Money or prospects? It would undoubtedly cost them serious prospects to get--say--Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins. It's fine to dislike A-Rod. There are things about him that are dislikeable. You shouldn't assume that just because he is personally distasteful that the FO isn't licking their chops thinking about adding his production for the next few years. They are certainly doing the calculations about his value and true worth.

Okay, I think it's time to put our prediction hats on, take out our calculators, and see if we can figure out how the Sox will decide if, or how much to offer Alex Rodriguez should he become available. I'm interested in seeing if people have ideas about what stats the Sox will use to ultimately make this decision. It's not simply a matter of replacing OBP or replacing SLG or HR or filling a particular spot on the field. For the Sox (and all teams, actually) A-Rod has a specific value. He IS the best play on the planet, but his numbers--while all-time best--are not an infinite value better than other available players. VORP and WARP: I propose looking at Value over Replacement Player and Wins above Replacement Player to figure this out. Perhaps there are better statistics but these seem pretty solid and give a nice picture of overall value to one's team relative to other players in the league. Here are his VORPs the last 5 years 2007: 96.6 2006: 51.6 2005: 91.0 2004: 52.3 2003: 87.9 ----------- AVG: 75.8 --(this year Mike Lowell had a 46.5 VORP) --A-Rod's career seasonal average WARP (wins above replacement) of 8.8. --Mike Lowell's career seasonal average WARP is 5.9 I can conclude from these numbers alone that A-Rod is considerably more valuable than Mike Lowell, by up to three wins a season--on average. That is a pretty significant number, if you look at the standings and how close many of these teams are. In terms of VORP, A-Rod has averaged a season roughly equivalent to Matt Holliday's season this year for the past 5 seasons--most of them as a 3B. He's somewhere in the vicinity of David Ortiz, except that he plays in the field in some valuable positions to add to his value. --------------------- So, little thought experiment aside, how valuable does that make A-Rod? In the book "Baseball Between the Numbers" there is a very interesting chapter about how the financial value of a player is directly proportional to his potential team's expected (and previous) success. In other words, the value of a player like A-Rod on a club like the Royals, or Devil Rays probably isn't too high because those teams have so few wins that his additional, say, 5 wins per season won't push them into the playoffs, where the real money is made. I think the Sox use tools like these to reach their "max value" for a player and they tend to stick to those numbers pretty strongly. Likewise, A-Rod's value to a team like Milwaukee, Detroit, NYM, Seattle, Cleveland, Phillies, etc., might be higher because the wins he gives them could push their pre-existing teams over the edge into a continued run of playoff appearances, which is where the big money is made. So, where does that put the Sox? I think his value would be high for the Sox as he would essentially replace the production from Manny, which has been a HUGE part of the Sox making the playoffs three of the past four seasons and the metioric rise of Red Sox nation to the status--and financial success--that it is today. The Sox very well could make a big run at A-Rod because he is one of the few players who will ensure that they retain their place at the top of baseball. I simply do not see them pushing 30m a year for a player who is NOT almost 3 times better (more valuable) than David Ortiz, but if A-Rod finds the market for 30m players to be less than he thought, a heavily incentivized contract might make sense and be the best that Boras can find; particularly if A-Rod feels his bridges have been burned in NY. Overall, however, perhaps the best-case scenario for the Sox is to resign Lowell while A-Rod leaves the Yankees for NL/non-AL-East competition. That saves the most money and leaves open the option of (gasp!) picking up Manny's options moving forward at a 50% A-Rod cost, moving Manny, or signing someone else in the next few years.

Wow. He had to talk her off the ledge like Joe Torre is her dead puppy or something.

There can be no doubt about this statement. He better be planning on using BOTH Sabathia and Carmona in a game 5.

Game 2 always means a lot, particularly since Game 1 is invariably over by then and Game 2 is the only game the teams are playing. You're right that the Yanks get homefield if they can win tomorrow, but the same is true if Cleveland is able to win one in NY. It really just comes down to playing the freaking game on the field; each day the game starts over and you simply can't predict what will happen in terms of who wins each particular game. I still feel that the Yankees will win this series. They did what they needed to do against C.C. tonight, despite everyone crowning CC the savior and Clevelend the two-headed monster. I need to see Carmona for more than one good season, and Sabathia when the game is on the line to know if they really are as good as their records/statistics indicate. They are both PHENOMENAL talents, huge arms and very dangerous. However, we've all watched Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka struggle A LOT against this team. EVERY pitcher struggles against the Yankees more often than not. Sabathia walked 6 and none of them scored. We've all watched Sox games where they are able to get on base but just not able to get the runs in, or having the pen not be able to stop the bleeding. Don't expect the baseball gods to be receptive to 6 walks and no runs the next time around. Statistically, one has to believe that A-Rod will explode one of these games. He's simply too good to stay dormant for such an extended period. If I remember correctly, Manny Ramirez was a NOTORIOUSLY big playoff choker. Despite hitting above .300 in his last SIX playoff series, he has a career post-season average of .258 in 310 ABs. (The big playoff hit that seemed to turn it all around was a HR off of Barry Zito in game 5 of the 2003 series, with Pedro on the mound for the Sox. The announcers talked about Manny "showboating" for standing and watching his HR; in the same breath moments earlier they had been talking about how he was not a good "playoff" hitter, that he doesn't come through in the "clutch".) The discussion about "clutch" is, and will continue to be rampant. When A-Rod produces the Yankees are a very different team. I was watching tonights game hoping for a close game, especially as Cleveland was pulling away. I don't think the Yankees "respond" after blowouts, but they certainly aren't bothered by them. It gives them a chance to get that nights game out of the way, to see it as an anomaly--because this Yankees team is too good to lose like that and they all know that. Pettitte will be tough tomorrow, but this team is missing the same thing we've all been saying for a long time: an ace.

Teams that win the WS need to be able to win on the road.

How many times do we have to watch them bunt a runner from first to second with nobody out? It's painfully counterproductive.

All this Mets coverage is making me wonder, any chance that a Manny to NYM could finally happen this offseason? Minaya could land a big-ticket player to bolster the middle of an even more formidable lineup which could put them over the top. Their young pitchers should mature a bit, but Manny would be a pretty quick and obvious upgrade over Moises Alou. Reyes-SS Castillo-2B Beltran-CF Manny-LF Wright-3B Delgado-1B Milledge-RF LoDuca-C Pitcher The Mets have just the combination of young arms, the money, the motive and the GM to make it happen. A high impact but low-level prospect, plus something else could get it done. Part of me feels like the Sox could be successful with an outfield of Crisp, Ellsbury and Drew, making a strong run at Alex Rodriguez and having Mike Lowell as a fall back. Defensively that outfield would be tremendous, and if Drew can come back to 90% of his career averages this team's offense will benefit. Also, I think we have all seen that Ellsbury will add some production to the lineup just by leading off and playing every day. In his short time with the Sox (and his entire collegiate and minor league career) he has scored a ton of runs and kept the OBP high. I would bet that a full season of Ellsbury would produce a VORP somewhere between that of Pedroia (35.5) and Youkilis (32.1). That may be optimistic, so let's say it is closer to Youkilis. That 32.1 VORP compares pretty favorably to Manny's injury-plagued 34.1, and I imagine some value will come from the defensive upgrade. :dunno:

My heart goes out to all the Mets fans out there, who I imagine are pretty torn up about their late season swoon. There is something f***ed up about a system that lets the Cubs in with a near .500 mark and excludes a team that led the division all year; I understand and embrace the system, but I'm sure that thought is going through some Mets fans heads. Hey Mets fans. Don't boo Jose Reyes. Seriously, if you don't want him I can think of some teams that would. He's clearly a good player. Get off his case.