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And how many did he blow? An extension of your argument is that a player is naturally better if they play on a playoff team than if they don't. It's absurd. I bet if you asked 10 MLB hitters (across ages) who they would rather face, many of them would say they would rather face Mariano Rivera and his "cutter away" rather than that insane dancing fool the Red Sox have. They would know very well that success should not be expected against either of them.

What do we need draft picks for if we're going to sell every potential tom seaver or jake peavy, along with grady sizemore, for whoever happens to be the hottest FA out there for 50times the money? I know there is more to the discussion than that, and that having those players allows you to get the big guys, but seriously, it would be ironic if anyone turned around and argued that getting a FA would cost us .... wait .... wait .... draft picks. Draft picks are apparently just unproven garbage who should be traded at a moment's notice for the first thing with MLB experience. Even if that experience came on the equivalent of a AAAA team someplace out west. I think you should put your impressive analytical skills to work and try to make another version of my argument JayBill. You have a better way with words, or numbers, or something. Again, for me it boils down to: Team A: Peavy Ellsbury Buchholz is better than Team B: Santana.

Oh, but let's give it all away so we can finally have a "superstar", a celebrity on this team!! I want some STAR power on the Red Sox, not these weak rookies.

Buchholz actually plays a pretty mean version of Black Magic Woman, but he hasn't been able to collaborate with Rob Thomas so he still lags behind Santana a bit there... Which indicates to me that you didn't read my posts very well. The following pitchers are available after NEXT season: Peavy, Santana, Sabathia, Bonderman (and some others) Is Santana worth more than Peavy + Ellsbury + Buchholz. No. He is not. So by trading those two and not being willing to enter the FA market for pitchers, you are saying that you would trade Buchholz + Ellsbury + any one of those pitchers (who will be cheaper and who are just as young if not younger than Santana) for Santana. I wouldn't, the Red Sox wouldn't. I'm not crazy for that, I'm just capable of seeing more in the strata than simply seeing it as Santana and then everyone else. Or... you could add the leagues best pitching prospect, who struck out more than 1 per inning, who put up better minor league numbers than Oswalt, Santana and Peavy, who threw a no-hitter against a division opponent, into the rotation, behind a lineup coming off a WS victory, with star talent like Manny and Ortiz, plus more-than-adequate fill-ins like Pedroia, youkilis and Ellsbury (each for 400K per season) and you have the makings of a dynasty. Yep. He's done all that stuff. Did your grandmother ever s*** a no-hitter on her hand? Have you actually watched BUchholz pitch? i People that are speculating that he will be a very, very good pitcher aren't simply guys like me. It includes guys like Theo Epstein, Jason Varitek, Mike Scocia (and numerous Angels hitters), the Red Sox announcers, the Baltimore announcers, and any announcer, coach or trainer that has seen Buchholz in the minors. It's true that nobody can know for sure, and its a good thing that only holds YOU back, because otherwise you would trade very prospect we have. The stats say he will be a star. The scouts say he will be a star. Usually, when those two add up, and the guy goes 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA with 22 Ks in 22 IP, there is reason for non-blinded optimism. You wouldn't be saying this stuff if Buchholz had had just ONE good season, say, like the one Francisco Liriano (unproven though he was) had two seasons ago. Would you trade a healthy liriano and Ellsbury for Santana? If you would I'd say you're crazy. Do you think its a good idea to trade Buchholz for Josh Fogg? I mean, we KNOW what we're getting with Josh Fogg. Buchholz could actually be a cyborg, sent here to confuse us. Perhaps Buchholz isn't actually a pitcher at all, maybe he just fooled us into thinking he was one. ********. Your reasoning (he hasn't pitched in the majors yet, so we don't know what he'll be like) is putting such little faith in the Sox ability to judge talent that it is embarrassing. Really? Then what were Santana's 2008 and 2009 stats like? It seems to me like whether a player is established or not you're still making a PREDICTION when trying to figure out a guys' future value. The experts have all already used the word "superstar" to describe the possible future for both Ellsbury and Buchholz. It is nearly impossible for either of them to have shined any more than they have in their time with the Red Sox. Neither gives any indication of being a "flash in the pan". Personally, I would think that Santana's 4 consecutive seasons of nearly 220 IP would possibly raise the idea that it wouldn't be totally wise to spend all those prospects on a guy who has already thrown that much. For every "he hasn't proven himself" comment you make I will respond with "he's thrown 1000 IP in the past 4 years, is older and will cost 20m a season once he gets his way, probably after testing the free agent market". Why the hell do you care about a lefty superstar? What difference does it make? Overall, I find it funny how many people call ANY move to get Santana a no-brainer, but then they can't justify why it is a no-brainer. The thinking around here seems to be that ANY amount of prospects, no matter who they are or what they have done, is worth trading away for someone who has MLB experience. This is a group that would happily trade Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin for Jamie Moyer.

f***ing A right!!! Ha ha ha

Oh, don't get us wrong. Damon isn't a very good player, and many of us were right that he was gonna be s***** after signing with the Yankees. And it would be great for you guys to move him to get rid of his non-CF playing contract. That said, he's still a much more valuable "Yankee type" hitter than Crede, who can't get on base to save his life. The idea of replacing A-Rod with Crede by dealing Damon feels like a great unraveling, and it is enjoyable to see. Don't see that joy as us being happy that Big-Bad Johnny Damon is gone. It's mostly fun to watch things fall apart.

Yes... substitute Crede in the batting order for A-Rod, and lose Johnny Damon in the process. I LOVE it!

but they can spin it in their favor by saying they met Torre's demands and he scoffed at them and signed elsewheresolely because he wanted more money. It makes the Yankees look better seeing as (I assume) the majority of Yankee fans want the guy back. It really applies to the Torre situation much more than Schilling... You assume that the Sox wouldn't be truthful about the situation (i.e., needing to 'spin' it), but they don't need a PR lift like the Yankees did with Joe. Many fans realize that Schilling isn't worth what he was in 07, and many fans also understand that it is in Big 'Schill's best interest to test the market and it MAY be in the best interest of a team like St. Louis or the Cubs or someone to acquire him for a year of tutoring and classroom demonstration. We've seen what we have waiting in the wings, and most of us feel pretty comfortable giving a full-time slot to Lester and Buchholz and moving forward. Schilling is a champ, a true Red Sox all-time great despite his short time with them. But anything over 11m would be a real stretch for me--most of that would be used to help the younger kids and hold him for the playoff stretch anyway.

Yes, I can see that. What I meant to write to you is that he may not get back to 40 HR but that really shouldn't be an indication of how effective he is. The difference between 35 HR and 40 isn't that big for a guy who can fluctuate between 50 and 30 based on how he's being pitched to and the protection around him. That SLG and OBP though. Jesus!! Impressive.

Hey fellas, Papi had career highs in OPS +, AVG, OBP and had his second highest SLG of his career (.621 vs. .636 last year). He also scored the second most runs he's scored (116 vs. 119 in 2005). He had the most hits in his career, and 5 more doubles than his previous best of 2004, 12 more doubles than he had in 05 and 23 more than he had in 06. The last 6 seasons his OBP has gone .324, .339, .369, .380, .397, .413, .445!! He also had 3 SBs compared to a previous career high of 1 ( :thumbsup: ). Oh yeah, second most walks of his career. As far as I can see, Ortiz had career bests or near career bests in R, H, 2B, SB, BB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+. In fact, 2007 was the most Batting Runs Above Average (BRAA) of his career, with 60, compared to previous highs of 53. He hurt the team less by making fewer outs, and that ended up being more valuable than the fewer home runs (some of which were simply replaced with doubles). All of this while hurt. All of this while getting fewer ABs than he had in 04, 05 and 06. Give the guy a break. If deterioration means that physically he's only able to have the 4th best VORP in the league behind A-Rod, Hanley and Magglio, I'll take it and not complain.

Back on target a bit more: Lowell would be the good Karma, good clubhouse signing. However, if the Yankees are realistically going to offer 5 years at 12 million nobody could blame Lowell or the Red Sox for not matching it. If the Sox used the 31.5m they save from Clement, Schilling and Lowell for A-Rod, then they probably keep Manny for next year (it won't hurt their payroll compared to this year to do so). That means: Ellsbury Pedroia Rodriguez Ortiz Ramirez Drew Youkilis Varitek Lugo Beckett Matsuzaka Wakefield Lester Buchholz It is a realistic possibility for sure, and although I doubt it will happen one can't help but salivate a little bit at the thought of that lineup, with that pitching staff, for the same price as we paid this year. Hell, moving Lugo's salary instead of Lowell's, and getting both Lowell and A-Rod would be the ultimate victory, but I don't see that happening unless they can get someone to swallow Lugo's contract AND they are absolutely sure that A-Rod can play SS. Given how difficult it would be to be absolutely sure, I think the probability of this scenario is pretty low. If A-Rod failed at SS they would be stuck with Lowell and A-Rod as 3B. I suppose they could trade Youkilis and move Lowell to 1B... but that is a long ways off... Does A-Rod have ANY outfield ability?

Which is why it would be really nice to spend the other $169,625,000 from this teams' payroll on other players who can contribute and keep Buchholz from having to be an ACE as soon as he enters the league. That said, were you disappointed that neither Pedroia or Ellsbury dominated this year? Pedroia "only" had one of the best 2B seasons in baseball this year... Obviously. But that doesn't mean you just give any star. Not all prospects are equal. I agree that Cabrera would be the most Manny-like RH replacement out there (not counting A-Rod) and the idea of that makes me happy. But I see no reason to be fleeced by the Marlins in order to get him... Personally, I think Adam Dunn + Jacoby Ellsbury + Clay Buchholz will be more valuable to a team than Miguel Cabrera when they are all playing full seasons. I think MANY players + Ellsbury + Buchholz are more valuable than Cabrera. Why trade a guy who is 2 years from being an ace, and an overly mature team leader with high OBP and the best speed Boston has seen in a few years when it isn't necessary? Why not just resign Manny or look for ANY other option when the odds are so uneaven. Again, if you can get him for Ellsbury + Bowden then I would probably take it, but Buchholz could be as valuable to the Red Sox as Cabrera is, given that Boston needs a SP and believes they have one. Finally, I just don't see Theo making a move like that. He was not the one who pulled the trigger on the Lowell and Beckett deal, and was advocating that they hold onto their prospects. Ellsbury + Buchholz + the Red Sox kitchen sink (i.e., any other player you would throw into this 'no brainer') for Cabrera is a no-brainer for the Marlins. Cost controlled, high upside, MLB ready talent for overweight, bored 3B/COF who will quickly cost too much for the Marlins to keep. No brainer. I'm not worried about Cabrera's production. He's a tremendous hitter and his 120 RBI should be more like 130-140 if he had the Sox offense and Fenway to knock the ball around in. I simply believe that Buchholz and Ellsbury will both be stars and by a few months into next season it will obviously have been too much to trade both for Miggy.

The concept in question isn't whether or not Cabrera will be good. The concept is that previous success is a predictor of future success and players with the statistics of Ellsbury and Buchholz tend to do very well. Add to that the fact that players who scouts see who look like Ellsbury and Buchholz tend to do very well. Cabrera would still have to perform, just like Ellsbury and Buchholz will and in that sense, for the trade to make sense, he will have to live up to his potential. If you're sold on Ellsbury you should be sold even more on Buchholz as he has been more dominant relative to other players since he was drafted.

While I agree with you, I think the point MUST be made that the Sox having a payroll leash somewhere in the 170m area and still being able to acquire A-Rod by letting 3 other players go, is very different from overpaying for Mike Lowell for 5 seasons. Barred from the A-Rod sweepstakes they go after the 2nd best guy and, presumably, blow everyone else out of the water with a 5 year deal. To me THAT is classic Yankees. I love Lowell, but 5 years? Hmmm. The Sox spend close to Yankee's money but have made better moves and have a better philosophy. They make tough decisions and have sound reasons for their decisions. They resemble the Yankees in payroll and (recent) success, not much else. In a discussion where every little bit of production will ultimately matter, you have to remember that Cabrera's past production simply does not matter to this deal. His production after he gets to Boston is all that matters, and in that sense he is just like anyone else. His production has been very consistent in FLA and obviously he's a tremendous talent, but it is all just potential. Cabrera could realistically be only 95% as effective against better pitching/competition, which would put him closer to that "really good player not hall of famer" category. Actually, the fact that Roy Oswalt was one of the first two or three pitchers I looked at to compare to Buchholz and his minor league numbers were worse was pretty telling. As was the fact that Oswalt did so well as a rookie was simply something I noticed when looking at his stats for the minor league success was also telling. So back at ya! Fair enough.

1. The Sox have shown they are hypervigalent about injuries, and will take care of Buchholz. They have the ability, with other starters, to give him a rest if needed. 2. You and I both know that rookie starters CAN make a big impact in a rotation but they rarely get the chance to make an impact on a team such as the Sox, which would certainly make bigger news and thus add to the "impact" factor. I would be willing to bet that history affords us numerous examples of rookies who have been more than suitable #3-4 starters and then going on to have tremendous careers. 3. But for one example I found in my research, Roy Oswalt went 14-3 in 141 IP for Houston in 2001, with 144 K. He finished 22nd in the MVP race, 5th in the Cy Young voting, and 2nd for Rookie of the Year. So there's an example of one impact rookie SP, but I'd be willing to bet there were considerably more who's impact was received more quietly. Why not just use the money from Lowell, Schilling and Clement to get A-Rod, thus saving yourself the CF and #2 or #3 SP of the future, and check those guys off your "to do" list too. Getting Cabrera wouldn't give us a CF'er, a position that--if not filled through the draft--will either give you a mediocre replacement (a la Coco Crisp) or an overpaid stud or "semi-stud" the likes of Vernon wells, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Beltran, etc.. Getting Cabrera also would not fill a spot in the rotation that will need to be filled by someone well-above average if this team is going to continue dominating. Remember, the team won this year because of its amazing run differential. They didn't score nearly as many runs as they Yankees but were predicted to win--and DID win--more because they allowed so few while still scoring plenty. Manny was highly mediocre for much of the season this year yet the team was still tremendous. Even if you DON'T replace Manny with A-Rod and simply sign Mike Lowell, I bet the offense scores considerably more with Ellsbury at the top than Crisp. Long story short, I think there are better options than sending the cream of our farm system (cream so good we can taste it already), AGAIN to Florida, for Cabrera. Again, if Florida would do it with just Ellsbury and other prospects that would be fine. But Buchholz stays.

The Sox would be wise to sweep Mike Lowell off the market right away and watch A-Rod go to some other non-NY team. I would love to have A-Rod, but the pleasure would be diminished if Lowell went to NY. The ideal case is that neither goes to NY and we get one of the two.