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I like what you have to add to this site, but I think you may want to back off of the Jacko hating for awhile. I don't think he's the laughing stock of this site; he's a member who has been around for years and who has taken plenty of lumps and still comes back and contributes to this site. I've seen him provide updates, commentary on Sox and Yankees moves, a good knowledge- base about the game, minor league/draft knowledge, international baseball knowledge, and, admittedly, a lot of Yankee homerism. Personally I cringe when I see you bashing him (or CrespoBlows) because you've been here for 20 days. Jacko's 15,000 posts are spread over almost a thousand days, and Crespo's over about eighteen-hundred. CB has talked plenty of baseball, and Jacko has made plenty of good points. Even his most ardent detractors would agree... Given your extensive posting thus far, I doubt that you've had the time to look back at their ten-thousand-plus posts to see all of their views. I'm always more hesitant about people who make hasty judgments on clearly insufficient evidence--whether ultimately right or not--than I am about people who I have communicated a lot with and who have an extensive history of working hard to validate their points with data. .

Joba is a huge, HUGE tool and someone who I hope fails every single game.

Perhaps you could state this another way... I'm not sure I follow you. I hate the double submission/server problems thing.

But what happens if the Sox sign Holliday or another Type A? Don't they lose similar picks?

Umm, you were tied for the lead three days before the ASB. It isn't like tying the Sox would be some sort of huge coup. If the Yankees had charged back from 10 games it would be something to get excited about, but waxing and waning between 0 and 3 games behind isn't something most of us are too worried about. Being tied with the Yankees (or even a game or two behind them) doesn't depress me about the Red Sox. The Yankees are supposed to be better. The Yankees are a good team and they should be in contention.

Halladay can slay great lineups. Let's not let him go to the Yankees and all will be fine.

Ouch! At least you appreciate a hitter who can take a pitch or two.

Or he will not be the pitcher people think he is going to be.... it is a 3rd possibility that should be accounted for. You are asking that he develop pinpoint control or Roger Clemens-like stamina. Perhaps he will get there, but I'm not sure, especially since pinpoint control is something that people try to develop for their whole lives and fail. My guess is that if he doesn't gain the stamina to be able to consistently hit 94-95, he will be much less successful than you hoped for (or I assumed). Or they could just get their heads out of their asses and make him the heir to Mo and have him solidify the 8th inning. The results will bear this out one way or the other. Presently this sentiment is nothing but optimism (and I'm an optimistic guy too!).

I agree with this list... I have a hard time saying Manny was a good deal, but not horrible is another thing. He makes that team 100% more relevant. I think one thing that could make Bay a lot of money is a 2009 World Series in Boston and a solid performance in the playoffs.

This discussion is really pretty jumbled. I don't see why people use traditional counting stats or rate stats anymore without using numbers like WARP or VORP. I've said it a thousand times, but it just seems like there are too many variables. Who is hitting behind him? What is the park-effects? What league and division did they play in? The AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS numbers have a use, but they only tell part of the story. WARP: Jason Bay (last 4 years + 2009): 2005: 7.9 2006: 8.0 2007: 0.4 2008: 1.7 2009: 3.9 Adam Dunn (last 4 years + 2009): 2005: 5.7 2006: 1.8 2007: 2.6 2008: 2.1 2009: 1.8 VORP: Dunn: 2005: 44.0 2006: 23.8 2007: 45.6 2008: 26.3 + 10.3 = 36.6 2009: (27.6) Bay: 2005: 72.3 2006: 50.7 2007: 5.1 2008: 33.8 + 14.5 = 48.3 2009: (27.1) I don't think this leaves much question that a healthy and productive Jason Bay is a better player than Adam Dunn. VORP does not take defense into account, but WARP does. Bay had an awful 2007, but that shouldn't hurt him overall. I think any hope of Bay getting a Dunn-like deal, or of Holliday getting a Dunn-like deal are absurd. The problem with those guys is that neither the Sox or Yankees were interested in Dunn so his value fell. Also, the Angels went another direction, the Mets had spent plenty of money on their team already, the Phils got other players instead, etc., Furthermore, I think that to assume only the Sox or Yankees will be interested in a guy like Bay is overstating it a bit. Any reason the Angels wouldn't make a play for him? Vlad is coming off of his contract, and so is Lackey (who may go elsewhere). They were willing to pay Teixeira a fair amount, so they too should be looking at a guy like Bay. Overall, I'm just saying that the market for Bay will approach the top-paid players market and that Holliday will be well-above guys with no defensive skill like Dunn. Hell, Holiday made 9.5 and 13.5 the last two years... he won't take much of a paycut, if anything.

I agree about Masterson, but I don't think he'll have the chance to find out about his SP potential in Boston. In terms of Joba, last year he had an average fastball velocity of 95 mph; This year it is down to 92.4. (http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Yankees&pos=all&stats=pit&qual=0&type=4&season=2008&month=0) Some may argue that he's trying to stretch himself out or save his arm, but just about every number looks worse for him this year. If that's his strategy it isn't working. His K/9, K/BB, ERA, FIP, LOB%, AVG, WHIP have all become noticably worse. In my opinion, Joba should be in the pen. I think the Yankees struggled with that decision and chose poorly; compared to the Sox decision about Papelbon (virtually the same decision) it was a pretty bad one, though logical. To put it another way, I'm glad the Sox ended up making the right choice with Papelbon. With Bard, the decision seems like an easy one. In terms of motion and stuff he reminds me a lot of Joe Nathan with better velocity. They both rely on FB/SL and they both have a big frame and a really easy motion. Let's hope he looks that way in a few years... if he does then the Sox will have struck gold again through the draft.

I look at Holliday's OBP and his consistent ability to get on base despite his AVG fluctuations and see a hitter who has good plate control. These days I think the power numbers fluctuate wildly with PED concerns, and adding Coors Field to the mix only complicates it more. Your statistics and home/road splits say that either players have a hard time hitting on the road when they are Rockies, or that the Rockies have never really had a good hitter. I'm willing to bet that Holliday and Helton and a few others are actually good hitters. As much as Colorado inflates some offensive numbers, Oakland inflates pitchers numbers and is a hard place for him to prove that he can hit outside of Colorado. My larger point is that this set up--going from hitters mecca to hitters hell--and having some power struggles means that Holliday may be undervalued. A year ago people had he and Bay neck-and-neck in terms of what they were likely to make as FAs. Now that isn't the case, but Holliday is younger and a better fielder and runner.

I brought this up in another thread. Masterson might be the easiest piece to trade because he has more value to other teams than he seems to for the Red Sox. Also, I'm starting to think that not only is Daniel Bard > Justin Masterson, but Daniel Bard > Joba Chamberlain. His stuff is better and his role is more defined. If Chamberlain pulls it together as a starting pitcher then that will change, but nobody questions that Bard is a setup man and his role will not change. The Yankees pitching woes have really f***ed Joba's role up. Hughes in the 'pen, Joba struggling as a starter? What?

No, but my guess is that they can get one or the other depending on how hard they push. Holliday's home and away numbers may be a bit concerning, but Fenway isn't a bad hitters park or homefield for hitters. If he puts up numbers anywhere near his career home field average then his production will be very, very good. Especially on a team with the OBP skills of the Red Sox, where he will be encouraged to be patient and accentuate his patience. He should project as a more productive JD Drew. I would probably offer Holliday a 5 year deal around 15 m a year, hoping to have him as part of the lineup until age 35.

The question is whether the Sox have the pieces in place to let Bay go, replace him with someone and maybe ultimately end up better off because of the draft picks. Bay would probably be the best player to leave the Sox for draft picks under Theo's watch, and unless the Yankees swoop in they are betting that there aren't going to be many heavy suitors given how the market looked last year. Or they just don't care if he gets the money he wants elsewhere. All that aside, I'm really curious where the Sox see their runs coming from over the next few years. Drew, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz are the players who will likely produce for them. Beyond that I see a lot of offensive question-marks. They may really have their eyes on Matt Holliday as a good 2nd option. Personally, I think Holliday is still a very good hitter and that his numbers the past few seasons are tough to judge him on. At his age (would be 30) and with his ability I really envision that he will have another few really good seasons in him and he may be a buy low candidate with his performance in Oakland and concerns about Colorado. With his last few seasons in this economy, I could imagine Holliday taking JD Drew money, Bay approaching 18-20m and the Sox just not paying that. Holliday's last 3 seasons have had OBPs of .405, .409, and .371 (09), with the major difference appearing to be his AVG, not his ability to draw walks. If Holliday goes back to where he was at his height (increased AVG, increased SLG... perhaps aided by Fenway) then he's the type of guy who can DH and be the pillar in the middle of the order. A few years ago (2007) Jason Bay went .247/.327/.418. I don't think we should write Holliday off because he's having a season in a new league/pitchers park with an OPS "only" around .800. With his eye I would think that at worst he's JD Drew offensively, at best he's Mark Teixeira. What happens draft-pick wise if they let Bay go and signed Holliday?

I like the all star game, but it is one day out of 4 that don't do much for me either. I know these guys need a break, but damn I've been bored without the promise of a 3-4 hour Sox game to pay attention to. That's wy I can't get as excited about sports that don't play every day. I think football teams should play 3-4 times a week and have 200-man rosters. That would lead to discussions like "Brady is taking the snap today against the Dolphins' 4th QB, Joey Harrington".

A nice thing about the all-star week is that the MLB Network is replaying lots of classic All Star games. Right now, 1995 game is on. Huge, steroided players all over the place. Odalis Parez (who I forgot about) is doing is absurd dance whenever someone swings at his pitches. Manny in his second season. Pudge Rodriguez looks like a gigantic tenderloin at the plate. Bonds looks trim. Raul Mondesi doesn't. Neither does Dante Bichette. Pre-trade Heathcliff Slocum (of the Phils at the time) brought in to face Pudge. Gets him swinging. Pudge is followed in the order by... none other than a young Jim Edmonds (LAA... er, CA?). Pretty fun stuff.

I agree that Jacko gets into his business here. I think it has been really nice having you around. You've added a good perspective to this board and are fitting in very nicely. You jab Jacko and Gom appropriately and definitely know your stuff about baseball. That said, I can't help but find some humor in you calling Jacko out for getting "into it" when you have averaged an astounding 97 posts per day somehow. I mean, jesus! I think you get into it pretty well too Dutchy! Again, glad to have you here, but I had to search the posts per day and was amazed.

No Gom. No Jacko. We know, you're both so busy that you haven't been watching any of the games. Gom has been busy using his amazing objectivity to work harder than anyone here can. Jacko is busy saving lives. Perhaps if they had watched, the Yanks wouldn't have lost. What happened to that zero game lead?

I don't doubt that the situation can happen, I just don't think it will. I think they will have options other than Bates and I'm sure you do too. What observations have you made about Aaron Bates a700? Are you talking about the .364/.417/.545 line he's put up in his 5 games in Boston? Or are you talking about the ZERO ABs he had in Spring Training? Which pool of performance are your observations coming from? Have you watched a lot of his performances in AA or AAA? I'm sorry a700. You clearly follow our prospects more than I gave you credit for. Yes, I penciled him in for 20-30 HRs. You got it! A potential output and expecting that he'll produce it are two totally different things... but you know that already so I don't need to tell you. Is there someone who is worth less than a bag of balls?