I don't have any comprehensive plan to get Felix per-se (I think I can use his name now). This is the general shape of what I'm hoping the Sox will do:
The more I think about it, the more I think nobody should be shocked if it comes out that the Sox 'secretly' covet Matt Holliday and have decided that he is this year's target to be the highest paid Red Sox. He would fill the hole left by Bay in LF and provide them a guy they could feel more comfortable hitting 3rd, 4th or 5th, and possibly get them a draft pick.
We have Jason Bay because we happened to be able to get someone of his caliber for Manny. Few people believe the Sox coveted Bay more than Holliday at the time, it's just how things worked out. This FO is not known for being overly sentimental toward their own players if there is someone better, and I think this is especially true of their former players, now FA's, like Bay.
Before people stupidly s*** on Holliday's stint in the AL, please notice that his numbers were pretty good for a guy transitioning to a new league in a pitcher's park.
[table] 2009 | G | PA | R | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
OAK | 93 | 400 | 52 | 11 | 54 | .286 | .378 | .454 | .831 |
STL | 63 | 270 | 42 | 13 | 55 | .353 | .419 | .604 | 1.023 |
TOT | 156 | 670 | 94 | 24 | 109 | .313 | .394 | .515 | .909 | [/table]
He's a career .318/.387/.545/.933 hitter. That's good, and that .318--though filled with less meaning than many take from it--still has meaning. It means something more than luck when you see a guy who has had seasons where he hit .307, .326, .340, .321, .313 the past 5 full seasons. His OBP is still very high, but it comes from actually hitting the ball to get on base more than looking for walks. He's also got the higher OBP and SLG, and he's a year younger than Bay.
Holliday over Bay may be politically incorrect and it may be getting greedy, but it may also be a more significant change than many believe. By signing Holliday they do the same thing they did with Drew--purchase the best available at a position of need and relative scarcity in baseball--and they get the player they want, not the player they liked but got incidentally... If Holliday got comfortable and started doing in Boston what he did in Colorado, THAT would be a middle of the order, pitch around/don't make a mistake to him kind of bat.
In one season they would have turned Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez into Victor Martinez and Matt Holliday.
If they felt they needed a bigger upgrade they could then sign Bay as well and plan for him to be the DH and backup LF for the next few years, or have he and Holliday platoon the position. Whatever, doesn't matter to me.
If, on the other hand, they believe that the addition of a full year of Martinez and the multi-year addition of Holliday (plus a healthy Dice-K and full season of Buchholz) may be enough to increase their wins for next year, then they may not pursue any of the other 'big bats' and then keep their minor-league resources for other needs.
Just adding Holliday they would have a lineup something like this:
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Martinez
Holliday
Youkilis
Ortiz
Lowell
Drew
Lowrie
Bolstering the lineup with VM and MH may be enough to keep them from needing to pull off an immediate deal with lots of prospects for a big-time hitter. Instead they can use all their resources on getting Felix Hernandez.
We know Theo covets him badly. He will be 24 and will be under control for long enough to entice him with a huge long-term contract. The only way to get him is to overpay for him, but overpaying for him gets you a pitcher unlike any other. He's a more polished version of Josh Beckett with better stuff. You build franchises around guys like that (hence Dojji's obvious reply that the M's won't let him go) and you overpay for them. How many prospects would we have given up for Pedro in his prime? 5-times the WARP? 10? He was irreplaceable. Many people think Felix will get to that irreplaceable point.
Buchholz could be included in the deal and it wouldn't bother me. The main reason I'm protective about Buchholz is because he is really valuable. If he's traded away for something questionable then I would be disappointed. If he's traded away a HOF caliber ace, I can't complain.
The following year Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer may all be available, and Ortiz and Lowell leave. If they still need to improve corner IF production at that point, they would have some options.