example1

He and I disagree about this, though I didn't mention it above. The REASON I'm all for trading some prospects now for potentially more expensive guys is BECAUSE Pedroia and Youkils and Lester and Papelbon (and to a lesser extent, Ellsbury) are impact players. If they weren't then I would have little interest in trading away OTHER potential impact players for current impact players. Lon story short, take the impact players we have, add established other impact players, and this team can win currently. If they continue to wait and see then they will likely be watching the Yankees win more WS in the next few years.

I agree with you about them needing to add some offensive power to make them better. I've been saying that since about the midseason. I disagree that when those guys stopped being good the team stopped being dominant. I think a team that wins 95 games a season is dominant. Only a spoiled Yankee fan like yourself could think otherwise. 2004 was built to win that year. The 2009 club (basically 2008 on) will be built to get to the playoffs every year and win occasionally. I'd rather have that, honestly. It means that with only one big acquisition they are suddenly on par with a tremendous team like the Yankees AND they have prospects to get those deals done.

He needs to do a lot of things more if he wants to be an elite player. He's a very good player, he will probably have a few really good seasons where he's very exciting. He's actually probably my favorite offensive player on the Sox right now. Even with that, though, I see three concerning things: --His fielding: somehow he rates as a negative fielder. I personally think he's a very good fielder overall, but he does some things absurdly well and some things quite poorly. In any case, nobody can find me a metric that says he's among the league's best CFs defensively. --His overall production: again, pretty low. His skills don't really translate to wins... yet. With his speed he really needs to focus on just being an OBP machine. His SBs and Runs are really just limited by the amount he's able to get on base. This year he showed signs of it toward the last half, but he's still not an elite leadoff hitter or CF. --Scott Boras: That's his agent. It is unlikely that he will sign for anything reasonable once he's a FA. I expect that he'll be a Red Sox only for his initial contract. If they want to trade him, I bet Seattle would love to be the fastest show on Earth with Ichiro and Ellsbury at the top of the lineup. It was well-deserved. It doesn't mean he's an all-star all the time though. He's old. He's often injured. When he's not he's hit or miss, .500 pitcher. Good enough for most times, but when the team is fighting to fill every roster spot with the highest caliber player to compete with a team spending almost twice as much on the same number of slots, I draw the line.

It's true that this team won't be the same, but to say there isn't the same "driving force" behind it is absurd. The driving force was a huge investment from management in the quest to win. That force still exists. The 2008 team, one game from going to and possibly winning a 3rd World Series, had Varitek, Wakefield, Timlin, Youkilis and Ortiz on it from that "driving force" team in 2004. Obviously, the 2009 team only has four players (Tek, Wake, Youkilis, Ortiz) and 2010 will (hopefully) only have 3. The core of this team has been completely turned over, and I would say it was a pretty successful refersh. In all honestly, I think the core of the current group makes them a better overall franchise than the 2004 team.

Ellsbury: where does he fit in all of this? Although he's an established member of this team, and I like him a lot as a player, I assume his trade value is still pretty high and that the Sox figure they can replace his WARP pretty easily within a year or two. I would think that a big deal that didn't involve Buchholz could still involve Ellsbury. I think Jacoby would have natural drawing power in Seattle where he would definitely be adored and would be a very impressive compliment to Ichiro in RF. He's from Oregon and stared at Oregon State, so he's well known out here already. Would this team be better off trying to patch together the CF position (again), while having a rotation of Felix, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz and Dice-K? That staff would likely really reduce the Runs Against and thus their expected pythag.

Hang 'em up Timmy! You too Tek! I think you would provide some amazing color analysis alongside Don Orsillo during road games next year. Seriously, it's time to clean up around here. This team has 25 player slots, lots of money and a shitload of brains behind the scenes. One thing this team should not sacrifice is roster slots, the same way they would never sacrifice outs. Wakefield's cost of 4 million has been a great bonus to the club for the past few years, but they were presumably looking for a time when they could replace him with a younger, better, cheaper pitcher. They have that guy, it's Clay Buchholz. Or Jon Lester. It is time for this club to have roster spots filled by guys who are currently in their prime and who, understandably, demand higher salaries. Beckett Lester Buchholz Dice-K ????--Not Wakefield I'm sure I'll get plenty of "he's valuable at that price" arguments, but I simply think the Yankees have raised the bar in baseball and the way to beat them is to have players on your team who stand a chance of being them, and most other people. Not pitchers who you expect will pitch .500 baseball with an ERA around 4.20. Those expectations suck. I like the idea of signing Lackey WAY more than the idea of resigning Wakefield or getting someone like Washburn... if at least because you're taking him away from ANA and adding him to your club.

I will be pleasently shocked if we are not fearing Joba for the next 10 years. I think people are writing him off WAY too quickly. If the Yankees get nothing other than an absurdly dominant back of their bullpen for the post-Mariano Rivera era from Joba and Hughes they both will have been valuable. I think Hughes is still bound to be one of the best starters in the league, and Joba--to me at least--is Mariano's heir apparent. Fortunately, nobody can ever possibly be as good as Rivera, so they could get Joe Nathan or Jonathan Papelbon and I would feel better about things than I do currently. The Red Sox drafted Jason Place, Daniel Bard and Kristopher Johnson before the Yankees took Joba. I would maybe rather have Bard. Joba is a cocky, headhunting thug... I like those kinds of pitchers. They scare and intimidate people. Buchholz doesn't really intimidate anyone and neither did Masterson. Papelbon does, Beckett does, Lester tries to and strikes them out whether he does or not. There's something about a pitcher with a few screws loose that really fascinates me about this game.

Who is the quality DH that the Mariners are coveting over Bay? That's right, they don't have one. Not touching a guy like Bay with a 10 foot poll, without knowing his asking price or availability to play OF is foolish.

I think Felix is the most likely. Theo wants him, Seattle will be looking seriously at whether they can resign him, if Buchholz is still around he's a natural fit for that type of trade and I think the quality difference between the two is significant enough for the Sox to take the hit in terms of Clay's overall value (WARP/$$) in exchange for making Felix the centerpiece of their rotation.

The answer, found here, http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html, puts them at 108m for next year, and then then 49m. That includes the options, not the arb increases. They would need to be a higher end $$ club next year, but would be very reasonable after that IMO.

1. They lose Ortiz, Lowell, Beckett and V-Mart the following year. 2. They were willing to spend 20+m on Teixeira last year. 3. They are saving money on the talents of Youkilis, Pedroia and Lester already I think it would be a big increase in spending for one season, with a big drop off after that. For a point of reference, for the 2011 season, the Red Sox have less money committed than either St. Louis, Toronto or Seattle. (43.483m) http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ew-fwu2XT3cpPRtt9qIGw That chart shows the Sox committed to 76m for next year. It could be wrong, I haven't checked it against Cot's team-by-team breakdown. However, if true that means that they're down about 40m in salary just from teams like the 2009 Cubs and Mets.

You think they would trade Hughes, Joba or Jackson after winning a WS? I don't.

I have an easy answer for you: they are all going to cost a lot. Felix and Hanley will cost the most, Gonzalez will cost less. If this team acquires a bat through FA then they can use their prospects to splash with one of these three and I'm pretty sure the FO would prefer #1 Felix, #2 Hanley, #3 Gonzalez. That is all.

I would kick the tires on that. I think Derek Lowe would be a useful comp, though Lackey is better. If they got Lackey there would be less pressure re: Josh Beckett after next year as I'm sure they'll try to acquire Felix (or maybe Roy Halladay) if possible. If that is possible (by using Buchholz, of course) then the 2010 rotation would be (for the sake of discussion): Felix Lester Beckett Lackey Dice-K 2011: Felix Lester Lackey Dice-K +? Seems very reasonable to me. Holliday and Lackey sign as FAs, team acquires someone else with some prospects (Roy Halliday being a backup option with the new GM in Toronto).

If the Sox signed Holliday for something approaching 20m/yr he could learn the wall and be well-established as a centerpiece of this lineup by 2011 at the latest. Knowing the wall and not dealing with pressure are not things they need to consider when making this deal. Holliday two years ago was one of the premier hitters in all of baseball. Last year he moved around and, like Teixeira the year before, still performed admirably--especially with OBP. He's an elite hitter who is waiting to sign a big deal and settle in. I can clearly imagine Holliday signing with someone else and two years from now us coveting him. Let's just skip the 'him signing with someone else' part and offer him one of those deals that only the Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc., can offer him. St. Louis will need that $$ to keep Pujols in a few years.

Those are both useful posts Jacko. The contract I was thinking about for Holliday would be shorter on years, higher on AAV: 18m, 19m, 20m, 19m, 18m, + 18m option, maybe two options seasons. That's 5 years/94m. A very nice contract, right up Boras's ally. I think that you're right that Teixeira and Drew (and the others you mentioned, plus probably Carlos Lee) are good comparables. I also think people are likely to downplay Holliday's impact as a bat and not understand if the Sox go out and pursue him really aggressively. My theory is that once he's very comfortable and very well-paid, Holliday can do in Fenway basically what he did in Colorado. The pitching and air will be more difficult, the park will play well to his strengths, and the lineup and culture of OBP will boost his production. At first I was thinking it would be foolish not to pursue Bay aggressively, since he's safer. But the more I thought about it, the more obvious it seems that Holliday, as the better player in the same position, should be the one they go after as their next franchise contract. The Red Sox are not a team that should shy away from making bold moves, and I think getting Holliday with Bay sitting there would be bold and impressive and would ultimately help their longterm goals... Again, if they got Holliday then that would mean that going into next season they would have improved from the 2008 team by upgrading Varitek to Victor Martinez, and replaced old Manny with in-his-prime Matt Holliday. That's as good as anyone could have asked for, isn't it? The move makes too much sense, and it saves them prospects to address pitching or Hanley or, if they really want, Adrian Gonzalez.

There seems to be agreement on this board that we should acquire one of these two players during this FA period. I thought I would break discussion about these particular FA's away from the overall offseason thread, for easier reference. Some questions I would love to see addressed: 1. What are the main statistical differences between the two players? 2. Looking at their numbers what do we learn about Matt Holliday as a hitter compared to Jason Bay as a hitter? 3. What are the costs and benefits of signing one over the other, both immediately and in planning for this team's future? I've written about it elsewhere, but I think Holliday is the better play here. I won't be shocked if it turns out the Sox really like him and would love to build their offense around the 2nd part of his career.

That seems reasonable Gom. Papelbon should be a longtime Red Sox pitcher, and he would be if he would just sign a f***ing extension. Until then--and if he completely rebuffs any attempts to sign him this offseason--he should be considered a piece like everyone else. He could certainly be packaged in deals if they net this team more than he's worth as an eventual unsigned FA.

I made a very, very long post above spouting my version of the same thing. I wasn't in the mood to respond.. However, no. No to Jarrod Washburn in any capacity. Fine. Maybe. Hardy was bad for much of the season, so I don't know how having him on the team is in any way an answer for the SS position. I could see us being in the same place next year as we are now. If one of them is good enough defensively. otherwise, always keep eyes open for a catcher. In the long post, again, above I advocate for going after Matt Holliday instead. I wasn't saying that yesterday (when I was worried about the risk of going after him over Bay) but if the Sox truly want a marquee batter in his prime, Holliday is probably the better option and they're a good enough team to get those guys if they truly want them. It's riskier but over the longterm it is the smarter baseball move IMO. Add Valverde to that list. He's at type A but has been a good reliever.

Iglesias would be very, very young to start for the Sox. They did sign him to only a 4 year deal though, so I bet his timeline is faster than most. I agree that Gonzalez won't be the best option.