example1

Get under your skin there Gom? Sure looks like it. You never said the Yankees don't have a financial advantage. You simply negate the size of that advantage and also deflect any discussion about whether this has an impact on the impressiveness of their accomplishments. Anytime someone tries to point out that it makes Yankees championships seem less impressive, you point out that the Sox have a larger payroll than other teams. By that logic the San Diego Padres would be guilty of the same hypocracy because they have a competitive advantage over the Marlins. It is safe for you to make the competitive advantage argument without getting into specifics. I'm sure you do this because you realize that the advantage isn't nearly the same advantage the Sox have over the rest of the playoff teams (and a number of non-playoff teams). It's cool though. We've discussed this before and I understand where you're coming from. Your logic doesn't support your view, but the logic is internally consistent.

Getting a guy like Hermida might be very useful in the "MLB ready talent" category for potential trades. The Sox could probably move both Hermida and Kotchman in a package with good MLB talent and give the receiving team players at many stages of their careers. What team wouldn't want to get back a young talented player like this if they're giving up a top player? All things being equal, I think it would sweeten any package and the Sox could treat it as nothing but a throw-in.

The most obvious thing about Gom's response is that it reveals that he does see some merit to the argument that the Yankees bought their championship. His argument that the Red Sox did it too-and therefore are hypocritical and also guilty--doesn't deflect the original argument, it merely changes those who are in its crosshairs. It is very revealing. Other people obviously understand that the Red Sox choosing to spend more than other teams by a lot on a particular player does NOT indicate that they are like the Yankees in terms of spending choices. If the Sox were willing to spend 200% more than other teams on an international signee (say, Jose Iglesias) does that represent the same action as spending $400m+ in one offseason on two marquee players and a complete dud? Not in the slightest. We see that, Gom doesn't.

Last 3 years WAR: Burnett: 2.6, 5.5, 3.1: 11.2 WAR (3.73 WAR/Yr) Beckett: 6.5, 5.0, 5.3: 16.8 WAR (5.60 WAR/Yr) Beckett has been almost 2 wins better per-season than Burnett has been over the past 3 seasons. Again, he's one of four pitchers to be in the top 15 each of the past 3 years. The difference between his great years and decent years (2007 and 2009, say) still has him as one of the game's very best pitchers. If Burnett is worth $16.5m/yr to the Yankees, then they're paying him $4.42m per-Win Above Replacement. By the same cost-per-win, Beckett would have been worth $24.75m to a team like the Yankees. Even if we dial their value down a few points, he's worth a lot more than Burnett. If Burnett's value is more accurately assumed to be like $13.5m/yr, then each win would cost $3.62m. At that price, Beckett would be able to demand $20.72m based on his last 3 seasons. I think Burnett is a bad comparison both in terms of on-field performance and his current deal, which doesn't really seem like it is actually based on his past performance.

Especially when that franchise has Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka signed longterm. If they can sign Beckett longterm then they can consider moving Buchholz, which opens up a whole lot of possibilities. Keeping him is obviously a possibility to seriously consider too, but there is no way he should be traded unless they know the plan for Beckett or his top-of-rotation replacement.

I think the deal you are proposing is actually 94m/6 years, or 15.6m/year, isn't it? I don't see 5 years 94m, or an AAV of $18.8m when only one of the 5 salaries is above 18.8. That's not how averages work. As far as I see the math above, this would be a total of 4 yrs/63m, or 5 yrs/83m (with the option). It would assume Beckett makes no real money by signing a season early, and then basically takes a hometown discount. No wonder everyone likes it so much. That's either $15.75m/yr for 4 FA years, or $16.6m/yr for 5 FA years. A few other points: 1) I think Beckett is at the point in his career where he will be striking it rich immediately and if anything his cost will decrease in the 5th/6th years. 2) I can imagine a contract where 19.5 is the peak price, but I think it would be more like: 2010: 19.5 2011: 19.5 2012: 19.5 2013: 17.5 (w/ bonuses from '11, '12 performances increasing it to) 2014: 17.5 (w/ bonuses) 2015: 18.0 (team and vesting option from 2014 performance) That's a $112m/6 year deal, or $18.58 per-season. 3) Don't underestimate Beckett's value. The last three years Fangraphs has Beckett as worth $23.9, 22.6, and $26.5 based on his performance. They can afford a $19m deal to bring back one of the game's best pitchers, even if it seems expensive to some. Like I said elsewhere, he is one of only 4 pitchers to be in the top 15 in WAR each year, with Halladay, Sabathia, and Haren.

The Red Sox were not going to go after Abreu. This is a good signing for Anaheim personnel-wise--he's a tough out. I don't know the cost so its hard to say if it is a good deal.

I started this thread to offer genuine congratulations. I find that at times when embarassment or jealousy might reign, it is just best to admit that the other team was better and move on... The Red Sox have a very, very nice nucleus that can rival the Yankees in a number of areas. I think they're as loaded as the Phillies or Angels are, and neither of those teams was light-years behind the Yankees.

A-Rod's injury may have been covered by well below average offensive players, but the rest of the field is covered by well above average offensive players to balance it out. Cause that's what I said, right? "With Dice-K back they will get over the hump"... or did I say that having Dice-K, Buchholz and Victor Martinez for a full season would offer more and better production than having Penny, Smoltz and Varitek? I think I said that second one... Let's not. Getting Abreu would be a downgrade. I'm assuming that they will have either Bay or Holliday. Getting one of them wouldn't be tweaking at all, it will be keeping the status quo in terms of on-field production. That's my starting point. You are assuming Bay is gone. I'm not shocked by that. You're reading from your chart that you ought to respond with glass half-empty doom and gloom for the Red Sox pontification... again. No shock there. Under these assumptions you're right. Nobody else shares those assumptions or sees this as anything other than a viable plan F. Let's talk about plans A-E before getting to plan F, shall we? I think individually the Yankees are more succeptable to injuries as their roster is older and should be more vulnerable. The confounding factor is that the Yankees have elite production at virtually every position, and some positions have easy HOF caliber talent. That provides a safety net against injury killing this team. If Rivera or CC or Jeter got hurt I would be worried, as a Yankee fan. Otherwise they will be fine.

Josh Beckett is probably a 5-6 WAR pitcher. Last year he ranked 15th among pitchers with 5.3 WAR. In 2008 he was 13th at 5.0. In 2007 he was 3rd with 6.5. He's has undoubtedly been one of the best 15 pitchers in baseball for the past 3 years. Only 4 pitchers were among the MLB's top 15 pitchers in WAR each season for the past 3 years: Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay and Haren. Those other guys are probably the three most dominant in-prime starters in baseball right now. All four are big durable aces. All will probably last well into their mid-30s. Beckett is a special pitcher who has the frame to age well IMO. It is always easy to see greener grass, but any team with Beckett on it will stand a good chance in any given game. He's got a team that can take care of him. I see no reason Beckett can't continue commanding his pitches and adapting as he ages like Schilling did. I have little doubt that Beckett will be hitting 95mph 4-5 years from now whether he's on the Red Sox or not. 35 year old Beckett will still be one of the hardest throwers around. He's just got that gift. At his age it would be a huge risk to let him go, even at $20m to stay. Beckett has been a great team member and competitor. He will be a very nice veteran to have in the rotation, especially if he's able to slide back to #2 because there are better arms. In 3 years I imagine still being confident about Beckett pitching against just about every other team. Fangraphs estimates that Beckett has been worth $73m over the last 3 years. $24m/yr. Even if he regresses, his value will be close to $20m. I would think that a reasonable deal given the biggest AAV's in baseball for pitchers: CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15) Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13) Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12) Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13) Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12) A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13) Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09) Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12) Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11) Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11) Roy Halladay, $13,333,333 (2008-10) I think I would put Beckett as a 2010 FA (assuming they're thinking about resiging him now) near the top of that list, probably worthy of a better contract offer from Boston than Burnett got from NY, or Zambrano got from the Cubs. $19-20m/yr seems about right. Beckett's deal won't be as much about profit for the Sox as most FA's are. He'll be paid because it will immediately add elite depth to the rotation and can go a long way toward securing success for the Red Sox over that time.

Great team, better than the previous ones in the decade. The days of Rivera and Jeter and Posada have to end eventually, right? Anyway, here's my official get it out of the way congrats to the Yankees and their fans. Sign the card, pass it on.

I hate this.

We know.

yay! Let the hot stove season officially begin.

Congrats to the Yankees and their fans. We'll get 'em next year.

It is an inevitable fact of being a baseball team that the Yankees can sign away any player they choose. The Red Sox FO doesnt get intimidated by this. Likewise they can't be intimidated by Scott Boras. It is still in Boras's interest to have the Red Sox purchasing his players. They have too many very good prime and pre-prime players to stand pat. They have elite talent signed for multiple years. With the right pieces there's every reason to believe they can win. They have Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Drew, Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard, Matsuzaka, etc., available for multiple years, Beckett, Lowell, Ortiz and Victor Martinez available for one more, a deep bullpen and a team that wins 95 games yearly. As far as I can tell, they have some money to spend this year and a lot more to borrow from next year if needed. I have a hard time seeing why they wouldnt be very aggressive right now to maxamize the production of the above group. That aggressive spending could come in a few forms: 1. They could sign FAs: Holliday/Bay, Figgins, Lackey, etc., 2. They could trade for a player with a higher salary (Roy Halladay), or trade and resign (Halladay, Felix Hernandez). 3. They could spend that money trying to solidify the team moving forward on current valuable younger players (extend Josh Beckett/Jon Papelbon/Victor Martinez/Ellsbury etc.,) I will be surprised if they sit around not trying to improve themselves. That's just not Theo's style, especially now that the core of the team he has constructed is entering its prime. Seems like time to add some serious firepower and see what they can do.

So 7 yrs/$18-20 million per. I think you are right about the salary, but I have a hard time seeing any other team in baseball go 7 years or more. It may happen elsewhere, but there is only one team that is likely to offer a contract like the one above, and that's the Yankees. If they want to spend the money to make it happen, they will be able to.

I believe that if the Sox don't land Holliday or Bay it will potentially be as big a concern as the loss of Teixeira was. If they Sox aren't willing to blow other teams out of the water for their prefered player, Holliday will sign elsewhere with a more aggressive team, and the Yankees can jump in and take a chance on Bay at $4 yrs/70m ($17.5m) and pay more than the Sox would be willing to pay and cope with another great bat in the lineup. I think Holliday might command a huge deal. Over the past 6 seasons his performance has an estimated worth of $118m Fangraphs; that would be $19.6m/yr. That seems like a good estimate of how much he will make to me. His last three seasons in reverse order are listed as worth $25m (09), $28m (08), $32m (07), so he could reasonably ask for a lot more. Any time they can add wins above replacement to the lineup they evaluate the likely cost of those extra wins and whether it is worthy of pursuing at that cost. FA negotiations for the biggest names tend to have the highest cost due to the competitiveness of the bidding, so they tend not to be very good deals. Sometimes they just need to get the guy who produces the most, not worrying too much about the cost of those extra wins. Given their thinking and evaluation of JD Drew and his worth, I can see them taking a similarly aggressive stance toward Holliday, just at a higher level. The extra cost can be justified as improving depth and predictable offensive production moving forward.

I hope this is true. Regardless of the deal, its early completion indicates that the Yankees might be content 'just' winning the World Series and actually leave some FAs for everyone else.