If we win exclusive negotiating rights with him, Boras has no leverage in negotiations, other than threatening to go back to Japan for another season. I don't know how much Matsuzaka makes in Japan, but I would think it's less than 7 mill per year. If we offer her 10 mil/ yr I think he'd stay. He'd be leaving a guaranteed contract around $30 mill to go back to Japan. If he were to get hurt or regress in Japan, he would be losing a lot of money.
I don't think this is just a play by Theo to block him from the Yanks and I do believe they will make an honest effort to sign him, because if this is just to block the Yanks, the Sox will have difficulty acquiring talent in the future from Japan and will also be damaging an untapped fan base for the Red Sox. I'm on record saying that they'll get a deal done, whether its 7 mill or 10 mill per year, because the Sox will easily make that up in TV and Merchandise sales in Japan.
Curt Schilling was right when he said the Sox would be throwing around the money this offseason. I think this is worth the money and not just so that he won't be going to the Yankees. Matsuzaka is 26 and would give the Sox a fearsome four young guys in the rotation along with Beckett, Papelbon and Lester next season.
Sometimes you have to overspend. But this guy has an average ERA of 2.54 over the last 4 years in Japan with over one strikeout per inning pitched or 9.3 Ks per 9 innings and averages 7 innings per start. It is definitely worth the money in this case.
I also just read an article on cnnsi.com evaluating Matsuzaka and the author has a formula converting pitchers from Japan to the US and his stats are comparable to other top #1 pitchers in the game, and that's why the Sox went out and paid this much money for him. Here is the link if anyone is interested:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...aka/index.html
We'll see if it works out.