trot4mvp

Here's the latest one being reported by NY Times, BDD, and Boston.com (Globe): Nomar goes to the Cubs for prospects, then Theo spins those prospects to AZ for Randy Johnson. This deal would make a lot more sense to me than the supposed Boston-White Sox-D'Backs deal being reported yesterday. The Cubbies are literally stocked at AAA and AA with prime pitching prospects (this is the system that has produced Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Dontrelle Willis, Sergio Mitre, etc. over the years). I have a feeling this deal wouldn't happen, though...the Cubs have a greater need for a powerhouse lefty (Johnson) than an angry SS in his walk year (Garciaparra)...why wouldn't they just trade their prospects to the D'Backs for Johnson? Still speculation at this point; no real negotiations...keep the rumors coming!

I was going to say...I had just seen up there...I wonder what rumor they will come up with next??

SoSH is citing a source from Briefing.com (some stock news website) that a 3-way is in the works that would send Nomar to the White Sox, prospects to the D'Backs, and RJ to Boston. Source said the deal will be done tomorrow because deals can't be made the day of the All-Star game. Boston Globe cites this rumor as well. Sounds like another bogus one...I go to school in Chicago and have become somewhat of a fan of the White Sox. I'm pretty sure they don't have any major prospects to give to AZ, though. They sent their #1 (Jeremy Reed (sp)?) and Miguel Olivo to Seattle; can't imagine they'd have much more to give the DBacks. I hate rumors as much as the rest of them, but I just want you guys to know what's out there.

Well, the way I see it, we wouldn't NEED either one, if we resigned 'Tek and held on to Mueller/Bellhorn for a few years. Like I said, I'll take a sure thing over a prospect any day, especially in this type of situation. Its not like RJ would be a summer rental like Beltran. We'd get AT LEAST 1 1/2 seasons out of him.

NMO...I'm still hesitant to believe this rumor. Like I said, I need to see him in that Sox uni. Does anybody remember that rumor that was up on BDD a week or two ago? The 3-way that would've shipped Nomar to LA and brought in Delgado and Perez? This trade seems as preposterous as this one...alas, stranger things have happened.

Awesome...this trade would free up the weakest spot in the rotation, get rid of Kentucky Fried Kevin and his $3.5M salary, and give up a so-so prospect, while keeping Youk, Shopp, Alvarez, etc. Sounds too good to be true...and unfortunately, it probably is. I'm not saying I doubt the ability of the Sox' front office, but until I see RJ in a Red Sox uniform, I'm not going to get too excited about it. I also think the source is pretty weak...we all know how wrong radio/internet sources have been lately in Boston, and I have no reason to trust some radio station in Flagstaff. Also, it is important to note that Jerry Colangelo and the D'Backs are not on working terms with the Yanks because of the whole David Wells fiasco from a few years back (nomah555 had mentioned this earlier). As we can all recall, Steinbrenner was so upset that the Sox were able to land Schilling and he wasn't able to because of the bad blood between the DBacks and Yanks that he went and got Vazquez AND Brown

elsr, I absolutely agree. Here's my reasoning: 1) Trade Shoppach/Youkilis to D'Backs for RJ (perhaps work a 3-way with a 3rd party to help the D'Backs move Hillenbrand?). 2) Don't resign Nomar and DLowe, saving at least $15M and $8.5M per year. This will make RJ easily affordable and leave another $7M for other FA signings. 3) Extend RJ's contract 1 or 2 years, or perhaps not at all. 4) RJ retires...reload using the $16M in freed up cash. Frankly, I'd take a proven commodity (and, indeed, a future HOF'er) for a couple of prospects. Since when was this team been one to build from "the ground up" anyway? Nomar, Trot...anyone else from the Sox system?

Foulke does need to pick up the pace. He was lights out early on and, granted, he hasn't had many save opportunities, but he needs to continue putting games away when he's in there. 4 blown saves could make a difference down the stretch, though I'm sure he's just in a funk that won't take too long for him to get out of. Isn't it nice to hear what Randy Johnson had to say yesterday? I don't know about everyone else, but I'm sick of hearing all of these far-flung rumors that turn out to be false more often than not. The Red Sox are very much in the race for Randy Johnson and I would love to see him in a Red Sox uniform for 1 1/2 seasons at the expense of Youk, Shoppach, et al. Use the money we'll be saving by not resigning Nomar and DLowe and give it to RJ!

Here's my 2 cents on the first half: Without Ortiz, Manny, Schilling, and, lately, Johnny Damon being on their A games, this team would not have 48 wins and be 1 game out on the Wild Card...PERIOD. Given the fact that the Red Sox are yet to put their projected 2004 lineup on the field for 5 consecutive games due to injuries, this team has fared extremely well. Schilling has and will continue to dominate. I'm beginning to feel that Petey is starting to heat up. Wakefield is Wakefield is Wakefield. If Bronson Arroyo can give the Sox the kinds of starts he's given against the Rangers, Giants, and Yankees, we'll be in o.k. shape. I can't even begin to comment on Derek Lowe (I believe there is another thread for rants against him). Defense is this team's Achilles Heel....unless they're going to start putting up last year's astronomical offensive numbers, this team needs to learn how to turn a double play....makes me sick! 3 errors in 1 inning the other night? Despicable! I'd like to see Theo go out and nab another arm for the bullpen. I can't see this team making too many moves before the deadline, unless they tank in the first 2 weeks after the break. The only weakness that I see, assuming we're 100% healthy, is 1B, and if we can get Bellhorn in there, more power to us! I'm thinking RJ ends up on the Yankees, but he can only pitch every 5 days. We MUST come out on the winning end of our 3 series' against Anaheim, Seattle, and Baltimore. After that, we have the BIGGEST series of the season to date, with the MFY in Boston for the DNC Convention. I believe this series will have a big effect on who wins the AL East (despite what the talk show hosts/doomsday journalists will say, the Red Sox are still very much in this race). That said, I'm about 80% confident that we'll make it to the playoffs this season and, say, 40% confident that we'll win the AL East title. Any thoughts???

Pokey on the bench? Or worse...sent down to AAA? That sounds like Crespo treatment, and Pokey Reese is no Cesar Crespo. Ease up fellas, Pokey is not as bad as you're making him out to be. Sure, he's no Todd Walker offensively, but Walker is no Pokey Reese defensively...catch my drift? This team can certainly benefit from a little extra defense up the middle at the cost of additional offensive production. And for Christ's sake, he's got more RBI than Kentucky Fried Kevin. Pokey should be our starting 2B, but worst case scenario, he is the first man off the bench.

I believe he was initially approached for a spot in the derby, but he declined and they offered to Ortiz.

Any word on who we'd have to give up for RJ?

What is the source for this rumor? If it's true, then the Sox have no reason NOT to pull the trigger!!! I also like the Nomar for Clement/Mitre deal, but I'd take Soriano in a heartbeat!!!

True, but he also didn't go to college, and Beane explicitly states in the book that he reviles non-college draftees. It doesn't matter when they were drafted...my point was that the team's offensive success was derived from 2 players that directly contradict Beane's methods. They could've been drafted by Dan Duquette for all I care...the A's don't win unless all 3 are on their A game (no pun intended). That's exactly my point...the A's might not win that "big game" without a well timed bunt; it doesn't matter that it went for a base hit. Its not like it would've made a difference if Mueller threw him out at first (unless there were two outs obviously...I couldn't find a game log to confirm). Could've been a different ball game if Hernandez didn't lay down the bunt. That said, how many World Championships have been won by GMs running around with their laptops spitting out OBPs and other Moneyball stats? How many have been won by GMs who put together TEAMS in the truest sense of the word (2003 Marlins, 2002 Angels, late 90s MFY come to mind...)? Playoff appearances are great, but until somebody starts winning championships with guys like Scott Hatteberg and Erubiel Durazo, I'm not buying it. I recognize the importance of some of Beane's philosophies, but nobody gets a prize for 4th place in AL 4 years in a row.

see comments below...

Couldn't agree more...Moneyball makes some interesting points, but Billy Beane's success is not derived from "Moneyball" tactics: 1. Throughout the book, Beane criticizes drafting high school players. Hmmm...who have been Beane's two best position players over the last several years? Tejada and Chavez, and they were drafted straight out of high school...hmmmmm....granted, college draftees like Swisher, Youkilis, Teahan, etc. have flourished in the minors, none are ready to make the kind of impacts that high school draftees Tejada and Chavez have. 2. There are 3 big reasons the A's have maintained success, and none of them have anything to do with OBP, OPS, etc etc: Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. Without these 3, the A's teams of the last 4 years are NOTHING! 3. The A's have made the playoffs 4 seasons in a row, and what have they gotten out of it? The one big game that they did win using small ball was game 1 of the 2003 ALDS...I need not say more. Say what you want about OBP and no small ball and drafting college players...I just don't think its the right formula for a winning season.

Its not like Tek's departure would leave the clubhouse without any leaders, though. Ortiz, Trot, etc. would be willing to step in...sure they'd be disappointed, but I'm pretty sure they're all aware that baseball is in fact a business. I wouldn't worry about any drop-off in the production of our pitcher's either. Spring training gives the guys a chance to get used to their new battery mate. Besides Zito, who has been steadily declining since his 2002 AL Cy Young, Oakland's pitchers have adjusted well to Damian Miller this season. The Marlins, too, are doing just fine without I-Rod...My point is that the loss of Tek wouldn't "greatly affect" our pitching staff, IMO.

Pedro, without a doubt, is the most important player the Sox must re-sign this winter. The thought of him in pinstripes, which is where he'd end up, makes me shudder. Let's look at what the other 3 are looking for (not EXACT figures): Nomar: $15m/year Varitek: $7m/year Lowe: $10m/year Nomar's value has obviously come down, so we'll say the lowest he signs at is $12m/year. That means for 3 players we'd save $29m/year. Give Carlos Beltran his +/-$16m/year in the winter and go after a #3 or #4 starter in the $5m-$8m range. Then, move Pokey to short, Bellhorn to 2nd, Shoppach to C, Damon to RF, Ortiz to 1B (not like our defense is getting any better), and Trot to LF to share time with Manny. Rotation: Pedro, Schill, Wake, (winter signee), Arroyo. The only one we'd really miss would be Varitek, but I say let the Kelly Shoppach era begin! Did I mention that I love speculating on this team's future?

I thought the Yankees series was the most important series thus far, but we really do need to win-out if we want to really get the momentum going. Without a doubt, the upcoming series is very important.

Who would the Astros ask for?!?!

It's a close call...they both suck, but Jeter swallows, so I'm going with NOMAAAAH

Oh c'mon, why do you think Theo keeps on trading for guys like Jimmy Anderson and Brandon Puffer (in AAA right now)? The only consistent threats we have out of the bullpen are Scott Williamson (who is on his 2nd trip to the DL this season) and Keith Foulke (13-16 in save opportunities). Embree and Timlin haven't come through in the clutch this season (i.e. Embree v. Alfonzo in SF and Timlin v. Sheffield in NY last week). Lenny DiNardo? He's only on the team because he's a Rule 5 player. Malaska? Yikes...Leskanic? I'm just waiting for this guy's arm to fall off. On a somewhat positive note, if/when BK returns he will either end up in the bullpen (where I think he belongs) or switch with DLowe. Also, Pedro Astacio's return from his injuy will allow Arroyo to settle into the LRP role, which I feel he is better suited for. Forget about Mendoza...he's as good as gone (if we can find any takers). I'll admit, the Sox's bullpen was great out of the gate, but they have really shown their weaknesses over the last month.

No kidding...how about we win a series for once?!

I agree with most of the other posters in this thread that it is, indeed, a bit too early to blow up this team. However, if the Sox continue their downward trend, it will be time to reconsider where this team is headed and prepare for 2005. We've got our core producers locked up for at least 2 years: Manny, Ortiz, Schilling, Foulke, and, my favorite, Trot Nixon. After the season, give Pedro his +/-$15M for 2 years. Throw in a great supporting cast of Pokey, Youk, Mueller, Bellhorn, Damon, Shoppach, Wake, SWilly, and Timlin, and our only real holes are 1B, C (if Shoppach doesn't pan out), RP, and SP. I'm assuming we don't re-sign Nomar, Tek, or DLowe (all 3 of which should've taken the offers extended to them since Spring Training 2003 and whose values have decreased since then), which will open up lots of spending room for this team in the offseason (make a move for Beltran...???). All 3 are also potential trade bait, especially Nomar, so who knows where that can lead us. Fact is, this is a great team with a great foundation. Theo and Co. have done a terrific job preparing for the future, though those MFY will be very formidable next year (though their starters and bullpen are aging considerably). The key to 2005 for the AL East will be Beltran, IMO. He could go to Boston, New York, or (gasp) Baltimore.... Of course, this is all speculation, as the Sox are very much in contention for the playoffs right now. Time will tell if this team has what it takes to make a playoff push.

It's hard not to criticize this team...with its many flaws (inconsistent SPs, poor hitting with RISP, atrocious defense, weak bullpen) and gigantic payroll, I expect more out of this team, especially when they charge me $20 or whatever to sit in the bleachers.