Catchers are always the first to lose offense. Carlton Fisk was an anomaly. Most of them can't hit their way out of a paper bag by 33 or 34.
Varitek is 32 right now and will be 33 for the first year of his contract. He's had injuries in the past and playing catcher, he could receive more of them in the future. I know you're all going to think I'm crazy, but re-signing 'Tek seems like a risk to me. I just hope Shoppach gets a little more patient and then we should be all set.
Also, this "field general" and "clubhouse leader" stuff seems over-rated, in my opinion. Sure, 'Tek's a nice guy who calls a decent game, but would signing him for the $10 million dollars a year he's asking for be reasonable when he starts hitting .240 with ten homeruns and then gets injured? I'm not sold on Varitek being a must-sign. PS- 'Tek has a road OPS of .733 this season.
The Sox already signed the "must-sign": David Ortiz. The rest are just after-thoughts, with the way things are. Pedro is having wrist and shoulder struggles. Lowe is the worst pitcher in baseball this season. Nomar hasn't even had a major league at bat. 'Tek is iffy for all the above reasons.
I think we should cut bait with all of them. Decline Mueller's option in favor of Youkilis. Re-sign Williamson and Pokey for $4 million bucks total between them and then offer the rest of these dopes arbitration. They ain't coming back for arbo-money, so they'll fly the coop to some other team. Being that these are all tier-one players, we'll get about eight first round and first-round supplemental picks for the '05 draft. That can then, in turn, be spent on more college players who would be ready to contribute by 2006 and 2007.
Technically, this still isn't rebuilding. Addition by subtraction, boys. Nomar has yet to play a game; Bellhorn has been spectacular filling in at 2B (look at the '02 stats, this is no fluke) and Pokey's a defensive whiz at SS and 2B. That wouldn't change from this season so far to next season. Lowe is awful. We could call up Abe Alvarez and get much better production from the next Tom Glavine. Anyone we put in there would be an improvement. Pedro has been Mister Inconsistent. I still feel that he's the best pitcher in the game, but that could easily change by the time the season is over, if his wrist and shoulder continue to be issues. Shoppach is having adjustment troubles to AAA pitching, but he's coming around. He has a .718 OPS now, but it will be around or above .900 by the time the season is over. He's a $300,000 dollar replacement at catcher with better defense, the same amount of hard work in game-calling and preparation and more offensive upside for the future at 3% the cost of Varitek.
Don't underestimate the Arroyo and Kim factor here as well. Let's say Arroyo gets a consistent changeup and improved ability to get out left-handers, which isn't out of the question. He's a $1 million dollar fifth starter who puts up a 3.50-4.00 ERA year in and year out. What about BK? I know he's on everyone's s***-list right now, but he has a career sub-3.50 ERA as a starter. If he gets healthy and his velocity returns (which are two very likely things), he'd be an outstanding #4 and would be a #2 on another team.
My '05 Sox would break down this way with estimated stats:
C-Shoppach (.250/.325/.450/.775; 15 homers)
1B- Millar (.275/.325/.450/.775; 15 homers)
2B- Bellhorn (.250/.400/.475/.875; 20 homers)
SS- Pokey (.250/.300/.350/.650; 5 homers)
3B- Youkilis (.290/.400/.400/.800; 10 homers)
LF- Manny (.350/.450/.650/1.100; 35 homers)
CF- Damon (.275/.350/.375/.725; 10 homers)
RF- Trot (.300/.400/.550/.950; 30 homers)
DH- Ortiz (.275/.375/.600/.975; 35 homers)
SP- Schilling (2.75 ERA; 215 K's)
SP- Free Agent (Perez, Milton, Morris, Garcia, etc.) or Alvarez at #5 (no real way to project)
SP- Wakefield (3.75 ERA; 125 K's)
SP- Kim (3.25 ERA; 175 K's)
SP- Arroyo (3.75 ERA; 125 K's)
MR- Timlin
MR- DiNardo
MR- Malaska
MR- Embree
MR- Anastacio Martinez
MR- Juan Perez (dominant lefty reliever pitching for AA Portland)
SU- Williamson
CL- Foulke (1.75 ERA, 45 saves)
That team is every bit as good as this year's team, possibly better now that Lowe is gone, and is between 1/2 to 3/4 the price we would have been paying if we had signed a lot of the free agents.
EDIT: I forgot the cool stats like homeruns, K's and junk.