When Should the Red Sox Promote the Big Three?

This should be an exciting season for the Red Sox. The team has spent real money and it looks like there’s a chance to compete and make the playoffs. Here at Talk Sox, as we get ready for the season, we’re running prospect rankings, positional previews, and projected lineups. We’ve spilled tons of not-ink about who should make the rotation, how the bullpen should be structured, who should start where, and whether the Big Three, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer, should break camp with the team. At many positions, the Red Sox have more good players than they can roster; that’s a great problem to have and a fun thing to argue about. I’ve edited dozens of these pieces, and as Opening Day draws near, I figure it’s time to weigh in with my own opinion on the topic, because I feel pretty strongly about it. Here’s when I think the Red Sox should promote the Big Three: Whenever they’re ready.

That’s it. That’s my only criterion. It’s all I want from this team: make the development of these three potential stars the top priority. Maybe that means letting Anthony break camp with the big club. Maybe it means keeping Mayer in Worcester until September. I have my own opinions, but I don’t pretend to know.

These three players are the future of the club. Anthony is the consensus top prospect in baseball, and there’s similar consensus that Campbell belongs in the top 10 and Mayer in the top 25. That doesn’t mean their success is guaranteed; prospects bust every year for a variety of reasons. But it does mean that maximizing the odds that they turn into successful big leaguers for the next six or seven years an important, delicate job. I’d also remind you that nearly all of the team’s big moves this offseason were for players on one- or two-year deals. Alex Bregman might opt out if he has a great season; Garrett Crochet may not sign a contract extension. In a sense, that means this is a win-now team, but consider this: it also means all those players will come off the books soon, and the team can try again with new free agents. On the other hand, the Big Three will be here into the 2030s, and they’ll be wildly underpaid while they’re here. Making sure that they turn into the best players possible matters way, way more.

The absolute worst thing the Red Sox could do is fail to put these players in a position to succeed in order to achieve a short-term goal early in the season. When they’re ready, they need runway to play every day, struggle, and adjust. They should probably be given the chance to own a position, rather than bopping all over the diamond. They definitely shouldn’t be platooning. If Mayer and Campbell are ready to play shortstop and second base in Boston, Trevor Story's contract shouldn't keep it from happening. I understand that the organization needs to put the best team on the field and that in a solid AL East, every game matters, but even if we're just thinking about this season, consider this: If you mishandle one of these players now, they'll struggle both now and later. Better to bring them up later in the season if that means they've got a better chance of succeeding. The good news is that the Red Sox have earned some real trust when it comes to putting these prospects in a position to succeed.

The team has done an excellent job developing these players so far. Campbell has adjusted his mechanics in order to lift the ball. It’s worked and sent him soaring up the prospect rankings. If you’ve been paying close attention to the launch angle revolution over the last decade or so, you know that there are absolutely tons of players who have tried and failed to do just that. Anthony had his own meteoric rise after the Sox drafted him as a relatively unheralded second-round pick, and he now runs some of the best exit velocities in the minors. These players have been pushed up the ladder aggressively and managed to succeed at every stop along the way. Put it all together, and you see a player development machine that’s doing good work. At this point, they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt, and their input should be the deciding factor.

So that’s my opinion. There’s no guarantee that a top prospect will turn into a star, but that’s exactly why giving the Big Three every chance to reach their potential should be the top priority.

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