Willson Contreras Was Logical Next Step In Red Sox's Offseason Plans

The Boston Red Sox acquired Willson Contreras from Chaim Bloom and the St. Louis Cardinals for Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita in the second deal of the offseason between the two clubs. According to Chris Cotillo, the Red Sox will pay Contreras $18 million in 2026 and $17 million in 2027, with a club option for 2028.

The initial reaction may be that Contreras is not the bat the Red Sox need, especially when compared to Pete Alonso, a player the team made an offer to earlier this offseason. While Contreras does not provide the 40-plus home run power of Alonso, their production is far more similar than many may realize. Since 2023, Contreras has posted 8.2 fWAR, a 129 wRC+, and an .817 OPS. Alonso, by comparison, has an 8.4 fWAR, a 128 wRC+, and an .827 OPS. The two are hardly far apart in terms of offensive value.

Contreras underperformed his expected metrics last season: a .257 BA versus a .260 xBA, a .447 SLG versus a .480 xSLG, and a .344 wOBA versus a .358 xwOBA. His expected numbers were all above average by league standards, with his xwOBA and xSLG ranking in the 87th and 85th percentiles, respectively.

More importantly, his defense is among the best in baseball. His Outs Above Average ranked in the 91st percentile, with a total of six, the fourth-highest mark among all first basemen. His Fielding Run Value of four was the third-best at the position.

Entering the offseason, the Red Sox had a clear need on the infield corners, with first base arguably the more pressing of the two. While homegrown product Triston Casas offers a strong ceiling due to his plate discipline and ability to barrel the ball, he struggled to stay on the field and got off to a slow start in 2025 before a torn patellar tendon ended his season prematurely.

Roster Resource immediately slots Contreras into the three spot against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. He is an above-average hitter against both sides, posting a 142 wRC+ versus lefties and a 117 wRC+ versus righties. Beyond his general offensive prowess, Contreras bats right-handed, something the Red Sox lacked without Bregman in the lineup. Prior to the deal, three of the team’s best hitters—Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu—all hit from the left side. Only Anthony was an above-average hitter against left-handed pitching, while Duran and Abreu combined for just four home runs out of their 38 total against lefties.

This move opens up the lineup in a significant way. Romy Gonzalez was the likely fill-in at first as Casas rehabbed his way back onto the field, forcing him to play more frequently than his skill-set should allow. Marcelo Mayer can now hit primarily against right-handed pitching, meaning Gonzalez will specialize against lefties as the two rotate (likely) at second base. Manager Alex Cora has long shown an affinity for lineup optimization, and this addition only gives him greater flexibility.

Earlier this offseason, I wrote about how the Blue Jays seemingly rose from the ashes to become a World Series contender by prioritizing bat speed. The Red Sox feature top prospects Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell with above-average bat speed, along with the aforementioned Duran and Abreu. Contreras can now be added to that group. His average bat speed in 2025 ranked 23rd in MLB at 76 mph, and 62.1 percent of his swings exceeded 75 mph. Those traits contributed to career highs in 2025 in both barrel rate at 13.8 percent and HardHit rate at 48.9 percent.

The Red Sox have not received a two-fWAR season from a first baseman since David Ortiz in 2017, a benchmark Contreras should be capable of surpassing. He also brings much-needed durability, as his first season transitioning away from catching was his healthiest since 2018, as he appeared in 135 games.

This move should not deter the Red Sox from continuing their pursuit of Alex Bregman in free agency. Even after this deal, they rank near the middle of the league in offensive projections. This acquisition meaningfully strengthens the lineup, but more offensive help is needed in what figures to be a highly competitive AL East.