Romy González Has Evolved Into Rob Refsnyder 2.0

4 hours ago, Brandon Glick said:

In part two of our analysis of the Red Sox's short-side platoon success, I figured it'd be fun to directly compare today's subject, Romy Gonzalez, with Rob Refsnyder (our topic of conversation yesterday).

I won't rehash what we spoke about in the Refsnyder piece, but it's worth noting up top that he's deriving most of his success from pulling the ball, while also sacrificing some production against off-speed pitches to better prepare for fastballs and breaking balls. Like Gonzalez, Refsnyder plays primarily against southpaws; Gonzalez draws 53.4% of his plate appearances against lefties, compared to 72.3% for Refsnyder. Here are their stats in those situations:

• Refsnyder: .287/.384/.521, 144 wRC+, five home runs, 25.0% strikeout rate, 13.4% walk rate
• Gonzalez: .337/.392/.663, 184 wRC+, six home runs, 26.4% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate

We've already spoken at length about what Gonzalez does to left-handed pitching, but it's fascinating to compare him to the team's designated lefty destroyer and see just how good he's gotten at the job. His 1.063 OPS against southpaws this season ranks fourth in all of baseball, behind only Aaron Judge (1.281), Paul Goldschmidt (1.181), and Cal Raleigh (1.082). His .323 ISO ranks fifth, his slugging percentage ranks fourth, and his on-base percentage ranks just outside the top ten. By all accounts, he is one of the five-to-ten best hitters against left-handed pitchers in baseball this season.

Let's dig a bit deeper. Among qualified hitters against left-handed pitchers, he ranks tied for second in BABIP (.429). That's kind of a "yikes" stat in a vacuum, but consider that he's also spreading the ball to all fields pretty well—his 31.9% opposite field batted ball rate is 23rd in baseball against southpaws—and owns the sixth-highest hard-hit rate (46.4%). Plain and simple, he owns lefties, and whatever "luck" he gets is well deserved given his quality of contact.

Unlike Refsnyder, Gonzalez is hitting every pitch type better this year, but he's experienced a drastic uptick in production against breaking balls. His wOBA this season against the breaking stuff is at .441, more than doubling his .215 mark a year ago. To put that into context, Nick Kurtz ranks second in baseball with a .430 wOBA, and LaMonte Wade Jr. ranks last with a .242 mark. Gonzalez's xwOBA against such pitches (.331) betrays that a little bit, but he's still more than tightened up the most problematic hole in his approach.

For what it's worth, Gonzalez is actually still pretty bad at pulling the ball in the air (13.2%), which is problematic considering that he plays half his games in Fenway Park. If he can improve upon his plate discipline—his chase (33.4%) and whiff rates (32.3%) are in the bottom-quartile among all hitters this year—he can probably drive a few more of those balls to left, rather than punching them weakly to right. Nevertheless, you'll live with some of that swing and miss if he can continue to attack lefties in his preferred manner.

Overall, the Red Sox have two of the very best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitchers. Considering that first base and designated hitter remain fluid in Alex Cora's lineup, that's a valuable thing to have when trying to play the platoon advantage, especially off the bench late in games. The presence of Gonzalez (and Refsnyder) shouldn't preclude the front office from trying to make a permanent upgrade over the offseason, but the Red Sox's offense has been thriving this year thanks to the versatility of its myriad pieces. Without the two "lefty mashers", it's hard to think the story would be the same.

 

View full article

 

Terrific and timely OP, as so many of yours are.

I honestly think Gonzalez has fixed 2b for Cora--even against righties. That keeps Rafaela in CF and puts Abreu, Duran, and Anthony at RF, LF, and DH.  Gonzalez OPS vs righties is .701. 

Against lefties, Ref DH's and 2 of Duran, Abreu, and Anthony share LF and RF with one dropping out.  

The above leaves Yoshida standing in the wings with his OPS of .643 (and big salary).  

As I think you said, the Sox lineup right now isn't loaded with super bats, but does have a lot of good bats.