Red Sox Future Values Big Board: Ranking the Trade Value of Red Sox Players, #10-6

In the penultimate installment of this series, we come across two types of young players: those with extensions and those with a real chance of being moved over the next couple months.

#10. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF
Season age in 2025: 24
Years of team control: 7

Ceddanne Rafaela became the super-utility man for the Red Sox during the 2024 season. He shuffled from center field, where he has the potential to be a platinum glove winner, to shortstop, to second base. In April, Rafaela and the Red Sox agreed to an extension to the tune of eight years and $50 million. This helped signal that the Red Sox want to invest in their young core. For the most part, Rafaela rewarded the organization for their belief in him. He slashed .246/.274/.390 in 2024 but shined on the defensive side of the baseball (at least in center). He made plays that you wouldn’t expect most outfielders to make. To move him up on this list, Rafaela needs to work on his pitch selection. He chases pitches frequently. His 46.4% chase rate was the worst among all qualified players in 2024 and, simply, one of the worst ever recorded. A young, cost-controlled outfielder like Rafaela holds plenty of value, but unless he can learn to stop chasing pitches wildly out of the zone, he's unlikely to move up any higher on this list.

#9. Tanner Houck, RHP
Season age in 2025: 29
Years of team control: 3

Tanner Houck rose to prominence during the 2024 season and should now be viewed as a cornerstone of the rotation. Until he wore down at the end of the season, Houck was the team's most reliable starter and the de facto ace of the staff. He stepped into this role with ease. You knew when Houck was on the bump that a quality start was coming. He went 9-10 on the season but turned in 19 quality starts. It’s no secret that his win-loss record was hurt by the defense behind him and a lack of run support. There’s a ton of value in a reliable starter who shows four pitches and can be counted on to pitch past the fifth inning on a regular basis. Houck is arbitration eligible through the 2027 season, when he will be 31. Should the Red Sox need to add a starter to sweeten a potential trade, don’t be surprised to see the other team ask for Houck. That offer will probably be rebuffed though, at least through the 2025 season.

#8. Marcelo Mayer, SS
Season age in 2025: 22
Years of team control: 3

You could argue I have Marcelo Mayer too far down on this list, but although he's a top-four draft pick, his injury history weighs him down. Mayer technically ended the season at Triple A, but he saw no game action at that level. In Portland, he slashed .307/.370/.480, an incredibly impressive line. It’s obvious that when he is healthy, Mayer is a top player in the entire sport. He's considered the shortstop of the future for the Red Sox for good reason. However, his biggest value may come as a blue chip trade piece. Other teams are no doubt salivating for the chance to trade for a top-ranked prospect who plays the most athletic position in the sport and who can hit the cover off the ball. A package built around Mayer could easily land the Red Sox an ace-caliber pitcher, or even a first baseman to step into the lineup should another person we’ll get to in a minute be included in the same deal. There’s a ton of value in keeping Mayer in the organization, but as the lineup is currently constructed, he’s blocked by a (presumably) healthy Trevor Story. Mayer could be the future at shortstop, but the organization is loaded with talent in the minors at that position, so trading him away could make quite a bit of sense.

#7. Brayan Bello, RHP
Season age in 2025: 26
Years of team control: 6

Brayan Bello was given maybe the most surprising extension of the offseason. A young pitcher, he has proven to be solid, but not the top-of-the-rotation piece the Red Sox hoped he would be in 2024. This past season got off to a rough start. Then he spent a few extra days in Miami before his first start in July, where he began to settle in as a dominant pitcher again. In 2024, he went 14-8, posting 10 quality starts. His 21.8% strikeout rate is subpar, but he’s a groundball pitcher who thrives when he can play his sinker off his slider. His changeup is a dominant strikeout pitch as well. Bello has a high-end second starter ceiling and if the stuff he showed in the second half of the season sticks, then the Red Sox could do much worse than rolling him out every five days. The value lies in the contract. Bello is young and cost-controlled. Should the Red Sox decide, for some reason, to sell on the young starter, that extension ensures that they would get a huge return for him. The market for young starters is nuts, as we’ve seen when discussing potential trades for Garrett Crochet. The plan should be for the Red Sox to slot Bello into the rotation and allow him to keep developing as another homegrown starter.

#6. Triston Casas, 1B
Season age in 2025: 25
Years of team control: 4

Triston Casas has seen his name bandied about in trade rumors for the last few weeks, and for good reason. He’s a young power hitter who profiles as a future star in this league. However, even after Craig Breslow pushed back on those rumors, it seems possible that the Red Sox are at least considering moving the young star. Even after an injury-shortened season, Casas holds tremendous value both for the Red Sox and for many other teams. He projects to be a lifer at first base, no matter what team he is playing on. The front office and Casas engaged in some extension talks before the 2024 season began, signaling that Boston is serious about wanting to keep him around long-term. However, that could have been the beginning of the discussion unloading the slugger as well. If he was unwilling to sign an extension like Rafaela or Bello, then ownership and Breslow may decide that he’s worth more as a trade piece. A deal built around Casas and a prospect like Mayer could net the Red Sox their ace or someone possibly a star like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That’s a ton to give up, but if the Red Sox are serious about acquiring someone else to play third and shifting Rafael Devers to first, or if they want to open a spot for another superstar from the Dominican Republic to help lure the likes of Juan Soto, the'll need to make big moves.