Payton Tolle Should be Made Untouchable by Red Sox at Trade Deadline

Trade season is upon us, and the Red Sox will look to upgrade their team as they fight for a playoff spot. With a deep farm system, the Red Sox seem to be a pristine trade partner for many sellers. However, despite the ability to make a myriad of trades, the team shouldn't willingly surrender its best talent. One player who should be deemed untouchable is Payton Tolle.

With a report by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale stating that the Red Sox have sent scouts to watch Diamondbacks pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, along with Arizona’s desire to receive young pitching in return for any of their available players, the Red Sox seem like a natural match thanks to their crop of young pitchers.

Add to it remarks that the Diamondbacks had a scout at the Portland Sea Dogs over the weekend where both Payton Tolle and David Sandlin pitched, two of the team’s better pitching prospects. While Sandlin could be moved in the right deal, Tolle should be off limits. The left-handed pitcher continues to impress in his first professional season, as he’s pitched in 15 games across two levels of minor league baseball. Making 13 starts in that span, Tolle has gone 1-4 with a 3.19 ERA in 67 2/3 innings pitched. His strikeouts per nine is 14.10 ,which is thanks in part to his increased velocity on his fastball. After averaging 90-91 mph in college, his fastball now can reach 99 mph and has showcased premium bat-missing ability. Even at its new peak, the heater can appear faster than it is thanks in part to his extension towards the plate that is near the top of all pitchers in pro ball.

His second-best pitch may be his changeup due to its late dive downward out of the strike zone, which helps to create a difference in speed between it and his fastball. Thanks to its break, the changeup also generates weak contact. His cutter also helps to make his fastball look better as the two pitches play off each other and forces batters to change their eye level.

When you look at Tolle’s other stats, you can see why the young left-hander should be untouchable. In Double-A this season, he has a 40.9% strikeout rate while walking hitters at just a 6.1% rate. It isn’t only strikeouts either, as batters are just not hitting him well. In Double-A, opponents are hitting .164 against him, and for the entire season that number is just .215 (and even that's inflated thanks in part to a batting average on balls in play being .336 for the season). It isn’t like he’s getting lucky either, as evidenced by his 2.74 FIP on the season. And even that is higher than it should be if you go by his expected FIP of 2.28. Considering that a FIP of 4.00 is considered league average pitching, the fact that Tolle is under 3.00 should be viewed as excellent or elite.

Tolle currently is ranked 48th on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospects list and SoxProspects has him currently ranked third in the organization, though he’ll become number one once Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer graduate from prospect status.

Considering that Tolle did not solely focus on pitching until his junior year at TCU, the year the Red Sox drafted him, his emergence this season should be viewed as a baseline, not an abberation. Originally unknown if he could stick as a starter due to his high fastball usage (around 75%) and a lack of a secondary pitch in college, Tolle has already helped to end those qualms thanks to his development since signing with Boston.  

Simply put, Boston would be crazy to trade someone like Tolle right now, especially for a rental. Should they genuinely be willing to deal Tolle, it has to be part of a package for a player that elevates the MLB roster to greatness right away. Otherwise, the top prospect needs to stay put.