How Well Do The Red Sox And Padres Match Up On A Jarren Duran Trade?

Early on Monday morning, Dennis Lin of The Athletic published a piece stating that the San Diego Padres have interest in trading for Jarren Duran. This isn’t a new idea for the Padres’ front office — they looked into acquiring Duran prior to the 2024 season as well. This time, though, they have been bitten by the injury bug and Duran would slide perfectly into their suddenly-empty outfield. Would the trade make sense from both sides though? Let’s take a look.

From the Padres’ Perspective:

The Padres would be trading for a player in Duran who can play multiple outfield positions, fields relatively well, has handled the bat well in recent campaigns, and is a speed demon on the basepaths. It would inject their offense with some much-needed new blood. The Padres currently are slashing .249/.316/.385 as a team. Not great, but passable. Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all played well this season, but the roster takes a pretty significant nosedive after those three players. Adding Duran would at least give them another hitter who could be counted on most at-bats and help to take some pressure off the bottom half of the lineup. On top of that, Duran is controllable. He signed an extension taking him through 2027 but he will re-enter the arbitration process in 2028. It gives the Padres another semi-young talent to grow with Merrill. 

The flip side here is that even though the Padres play in the toughest division in baseball, they had been holding their own until recently. The package to land someone of Duran’s caliber would be fairly large, and reasonably so. The Red Sox would likely look to have a high-level starting pitcher included in the deal, and that conversation would probably center around either Michael King and Dylan Cease. Both pitchers are currently on the injured list though. If the Padres believe they can at least compete for a wildcard position, why would they want to ship out one of the top two arms in their rotation for Duran? It doesn’t make a ton of sense if that’s a sticking point for the Red Sox, and it should be. 

From the Red Sox’s Perspective:

Jarren Duran is the oldest member of the foundational core at 28 years old. If you’re a listener to The Talk Sox Podcast, where I actually brought this trade up on Episode 12, you’ll know that I’ve been pounding the drum that the weird extension Duran signed in the offseason signaled that the Red Sox don’t actually view him as a long-term member of the team. Why only buy out two of his three arbitration years and then send him back through the process at age 31? It doesn’t make sense and, to me, signals that he’s a moveable piece in any deal that nets the Red Sox another big roster addition. While he’s having a down season, he is a year removed from his 2024 All-Star MVP award and has shown glimpses of finding his stride again. If the Red Sox truly think he isn’t someone to build around, then there’s likely not going to be a better time to trade Duran than this season. They should have traded him during the offseason when his value was highest, but this trade deadline could be the next best thing, especially if Boston is still falling out of contention.

Who would the Red Sox look to get back in a deal for Duran? They’d likely want to add another playoff caliber starter to the rotation, but the Padres would want to steer them towards prospects to make up the bulk of the trade. To get a relative sense of his value, I studied Duran’s Baseball Savant page and pitted him against similar players (in terms of recent production). Out of those, I picked three names who were traded fairly recently and analyzed the return package. Before we dive into those, note that I’m not comparing Duran to these players or suggesting he's on their level. I’m just trying to get a baseline for what a deal could look like. 

Deal #1: Fransisco Lindor

In 2021, the then-Cleveland Indians packaged their phenom shortstop in a deal with an aging pitcher to land a haul of prospects. Cleveland traded Lindor and Carlos Carrasco for INF Amed Rosario, INF Andres Gimenez, RHP Josh Wolf, and OF Isaiah Greene. Wolf and Greene were the Mets’ ninth and tenth ranked prospects at the time, while Rosario and Gimenez were big league contributors. The Mets won this trade handily. Wolf is now playing for the Giants’ High-A affiliate, while Greene was released from Cleveland’s High-A affiliate in March. Rosario has bounced around the league and is currently with the Nationals, while Gimenez is with Toronto. Lindor was playing out his last season before he could reach free agency when he was traded and signed a monster extension to remain in Queens.

Deal #2: Trea Turner

Like Lindor, Turner was packaged with an aging All-Star pitcher to increase the return of the trade. Turner and Max Scherzer were dealt to the Dodgers for C Kiebert Ruiz, RHP Josiah Gray, RHP Gerardo Carrillo, and OF Donovan Casey. At the time, Ruiz was the third-ranked prospect in the system, Gray was the number one prospect, and Carrillo was the Dodgers’ 17th-ranked prospect. Ruiz and Gray have both made it to the majors while Carrillo is currently in the Rangers’ Double-A system, and Casey is playing professional baseball in Mexico. Turner had one more season of control before he hit free agency. 

Deal #3: Javier Baez

After the Mets made a move for Lindor, they brought in Javy Baez and Trevor Williams to help try and push them over the edge. The Cubs traded Baez and Williams to the Mets for Pete Crow-Armstrong, who was the fifth-ranked prospect in the Mets’ system at the time of the trade. This is the one deal of the three that worked out best for the team trading the big name player away, as PCA seems to be on his way to becoming a superstar in Chicago. Baez was playing his final half-season before free agency when he was traded.

So, if we use these three deals as a foundational piece for a Duran trade to the Padres, there’s a ton of risk involved from Boston’s side. If the Red Sox had to attach a starter to Duran in the deal, would they even consider it? They want to add to their pitching depth, not subtract from it. It’s probably safe to assume that the Padres’ top two prospects, SS Leo De Vries and C Ethan Salas, would be off the table and neither are close enough to the majors to make a whole lot of sense from Boston’s side. Looking further down their prospect list, there really isn’t a match there at all. Wnless the Padres are willing to package a top-tier major league starter with a collection of minor leaguers, then Duran may just be a pipe dream for them.

I still believe that Jarren Duran should be traded from the Boston Red Sox, I just don’t think the Padres match up very well as a prospective trade partner. Remember, we still have all of June and July before we get to the trade deadline. It’s entirely possible the Padres could rebound and be one left fielder away from true title contention. Unless that occurs, though, I wouldn’t bank on Duran teaming up with Xander Bogaerts again anytime soon.