Hear Me Out: The Red Sox Shouldn’t Trade Anybody

This week, several of our writers have been putting themselves in Craig Breslow’s shoes and sharing how they’d like the Red Sox to navigate this pivotal offseason. There’s talk of free-agent signings. There’s talk of trading young stars and even younger prospects. I’d like to make my own proposal, and it’s pretty simple: Don’t trade anybody. The Red Sox don’t trade the big four. The Red Sox don’t trade Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu or Triston Casas. They just keep all those good, young cost-controlled players right where they are. They accept that the lineup is a little lefty-heavy. They go out and sign a catcher and a couple starting pitchers. They sign a corner outfielder on a one-year deal and if there’s money left over, maybe even a middle infielder. I have my own opinions about which free agents would make sense in Boston, but that’s a discussion for another day. Right now, I just want to explain why I think holding onto all that young talent makes sense.

Yes, doing so means the team wouldn’t be able to land Garrett Crochet, which would be a bummer. But multiple frontline starters are available in free agency – players with a longer track record of performance and better injury history than Crochet – and all they cost is money. Sam Kennedy said yesterday that the team is prepared to spend enough to put the team into luxury tax territory this offseason, which is wonderful. Still, the reality in today’s game is that no team, not even the Dodgers, is willing to spend enough money to build an entire competitive team at full market value. You need young, cost-controlled players, which also means that you need to hold onto your prospects so that you’ll have young, cost-controlled players in the future too. It’s definitely possible to prop the window open by landing high-priced veterans either in free agency or by trading prospects, but that path leaves teams vulnerable to a crash afterward. The 2019 Nationals serve as an example of this, and the Astros look likely to serve as another in the near future. There’s no reason for the Red Sox to act like one of those teams, especially not right now. They should be thinking like the Astros of seven or eight years ago, whose thrilling crop of young stars allowed them to bring in aces like Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, rounding out the roster without breaking the bank or blowing up the farm.

Statistically speaking, one or two of the big four probably won’t work out at the big-league level. That’s just how things work. So give them time, have them start the season in Worcester, and let them force their way into the major-league lineup when they’re ready. When Roman Anthony makes it to Boston, set up a time-share between Abreu and Rafaela, where Abreu sits against most lefties (yes, I know Rafaela struggles against lefties too) and Duran slides over to center against most righties. Rafaela would be a bit overpaid and overqualified as the small side of a platoon and an ace defensive replacement, but that’s the luxury of having money. When you look at the roster of the Dodgers, it's easy to marvel at all the big names at the top of the roster, but the Dodgers also flexed their checkbook by building tons of depth, enough to survive injuries and make sure that their lineup didn't have any holes in it.

Catchers progress more slowly than other players, so signing a veteran catcher on short-term deal gives Kyle Teel time to grow without blocking him whenever he’s ready. If the team doesn’t sign a middle infielder, second base will be a black hole on the roster to start the season. However, either Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell is likely to earn a promotion within the first couple months of the season, at which point they’d have a chance to claim the job.

The players who don’t force their way up to Boston will still be in the organization and still be highly regarded. That would leave them available to be traded at the deadline when the Red Sox will have a better idea of their roster needs down the stretch. If this model sounds familiar, it’s because it’s similar to what the Orioles have been doing. The Orioles were accused for years of prospect-hoarding as they held onto their seemingly inexhaustible supply of apple-cheeked up-and-comers, but once a few of those prospects had broken through onto the big-league roster, they traded players like Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and Connor Norby to shore up the weak spots. Those players were no longer at their absolute maximum trade value, but they were still able to bring value back to Baltimore, and the team ran a much lower risk of trading away a future superstar.

To be clear, I’m not saying the Red Sox shouldn’t be exploring trade possibilities or listening to trade offers. They should obviously be open to moves that make sense with the roster they want to build. It’s just that right now, they’ve got a solid core and money to spend. Why spend the future instead?