Brayan Bello Returns to Boston With Some Lingering Questions

Brayan Bello is finally headed back to the starting rotation in Boston, and not a minute too soon. With Richard Fitts on the IL due to a pectoral strain and Sean Newcomb only turning in one solid start so far this season, the back end of the rotation needs some stabilization. Bello has mostly been down with Triple-A Worcester working his way back up to speed to mixed results so far. Let’s dive into his minor league starts and see what we can expect from the young hurler.

Bello made four minor league starts, one at Double-A Portland and three with Triple-A Worcester. During those outings, he posted a 7.07 ERA, allowing a .300 batting average, while working a 31.8% strikeout rate. If we dig just a bit deeper, though, Bello’s expected batting average is only .187, so hitters have been getting extremely lucky while he’s on the mound. Outside of the difference between actual and expected batting average we see an OBP of .341 but an xOBP of .247, a posted slug of .375 but an expected slug of .269, and a wOBA of .316 with an xwOBA of .236. Balls are falling in and hitting gaps even though the numbers say they should be outs.

I think the strikeouts are more notable than the luck. Throughout his career, Bello has been a pitch-to-contact style pitcher, and we’re still seeing a bit of that. He ran a ground ball rate of 55.6% during his stint in the minor leagues, so the sinker is obviously still doing what he wants it to do, getting hitters to swing on top of the ball and drive it into the ground. However, in two-strike counts, he’s relying on his slider (in every situation except a full count, when he goes back to his sinker). His slider has become his out pitch, replacing the changeup, which filled that role last season.

Bello is having trouble locating his sinker. During his stint in the minor leagues, the pitch has lived high in the zone and gotten crushed up there. When the sinker plays down, the contact is ice cold and it likely works as a true strikeout pitch, along with the slider. This will likely begin to happen once he’s back in Boston and working with Andrew Bailey on a daily basis.

So far, the starting rotation has proven to be quite deep but fairly lackluster outside of Garrett Crochet. Walker Buehler looks as though he’s finding his footing, but Tanner Houck and Sean Newcomb have looked overmatched and unprepared. Getting Bello back will be a huge benefit, especially if he performs like he did in the second half of 2024. Last year, the coaching staff wanted Bello to take a giant step forward as the team's ace, and he faltered under the pressure. This year, though, Bello can sit further back in the rotation and build his case to be the number two starter by the end of the season. Bello offers a ton of upside, and he should make his extension look like a bargain by the end of the season.