Anthony Rizzo Retires, Leavings Fans to Wonder: How Might Recent History Look Had he Stayed with Red Sox?

Former Boston Red Sox farmhand Anthony Rizzo will sign a one-day contract to retire as a Chicago Cub on Saturday. In doing so, the multi-time All-Star first baseman hangs up the cleats as a career .261 hitter with 303 home runs, 35.8 fWAR, and 1,644 hits.

It wasn't a Hall of Fame career for Rizzo, but it was a great one nonetheless; inspirational, as well, considering he overcame a battle with Hodgkin's Lymphoma as he began his professional career in 2008. The 36-year-old made three All-Star teams, won four Gold Glove awards, one Platinum Glove, and took home Silver Slugger honors at first base in 2016.Speaking of 2016, he was also a pivotal piece in the Cubs' first World Series title in 108 years, posting a 145 wRC+ in the regular season and a 127 mark in the postseason.

That was how reality played out for Rizzo. However, how might baseball history be different had the Red Sox held onto him instead of trading for Adrian Gonzalez ahead of the 2011 season?

Today, we pay homage to the greatness of Rizzo by exploring some hypothetical scenarios had he remained in Boston. 

Scenario #1: Adrian Beltre re-signs in Boston.

The Red Sox traded for Gonzalez on Dec. 5, 2010; one month later, Beltre signed a six-year deal with the Texas Rangers worth $96 million. 

While Boston already had first base locked down with Kevin Youkilis, it opted to upgrade that position by trading Rizzo, along with Rey Fuentes, Casey Kelly and Eric Patterson, to acquire the All-Star from the San Diego Padres. As a corresponding move, lineup-wise, Youkilis moved to third base and thus effectively ended the tenure of Beltre in Boston.

In 2010, Beltre was a fringe MVP candidate, finishing ninth in voting with a 141 OPS+, 28 homers, 102 runs batted in, and a league-leading 49 doubles. After the Red Sox traded Manny Ramirez in 2008, then lost Jason Bay to the Mets after the 2009 season, it appeared they'd found a righty bat to pair with slugging left-handed designated hitter David Ortiz.

Only, history had other plans.

Rizzo didn't debut until June 9 of 2011, and wasn't a mainstay until the next year as a Cub, which actually played well into how Youkilis' time in Boston came to an end as well. 

Imagine a 2012 Red Sox lineup of the following:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Adrian Beltre, 3B
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
6. Cody Ross, RF
7. Carl Crawford, LF
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
9. Mike Aviles, SS

Youkilis also figures to be in the mix somewhere, whether as the Opening Day starter at first base or as trade fodder in the offseason ahead of 2012, potentially for pitching.

Scenario #2: Does Theo Epstein and/or Terry Francona leave?

A large reason 2012 was under Ben Cherrington and Bobby Valentine's guidance was how the 2011 season unfolded. There was a disconnect between the front office and the clubhouse, and players began behaving selfishly.

Rumors that Gonzalez didn't like playing on the East Coast, Carl Crawford struggling, and a messy dynamic in the rotation combined to lead to a colossal collapse that bounced the Red Sox from postseason contention on Game 162 in 2011. Seeing as he was a rookie that season and struggled, Rizzo hardly factors into saving the culture.

However, does simply removing one part of the problem alleviate a lot of pressure within the clubhouse? Moreover, are Epstein and Francona sticking around beyond that season, or were their respective departures inevitable?

Scenario #3: The Bearded Brothers of 2013 never happens.

This isn't to say the 2013 Red Sox would've been bad, especially considering the staying power in that hypothetical 2012 lineup. However, thinking about the 2013 team without Mike Napoli and, potentially, Jonny Gomes, feels almost treasonous.

Part of what made the 2013 World Series run so special is just how bad the 2012 team bottomed out, culminating in the trade that sent Gonzalez, Crawford, Nick Punto, and Josh Beckett to the Los Angeles Dodgers for James Loney and prospects.

If Gonzalez isn't headlining the outgoing party to Los Angeles, are the Red Sox stuck with Crawford until his contract expires? Beckett rebounded and finished his career with a strong 2014 campaign, but posted an ERA over five across eight starts in 2013. Could a rotation of Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, and Felix Doubront lead the Red Sox to the promised land in 2013? Largely, that same rotation flamed out down the stretch in 2011 and was rife with drama stemming from "fried chicken and beer"-gate.

Sure, the lineup would've been markedly better on paper, but Napoli posted a 128 wRC+ to Rizzo's 105 in 2013, with Gomes and Crawford each posting a 108 mark.

Scenario #4: Jon Lester's long-term future with the Red Sox.

It feels like, rhetorically speaking, Red Sox Principal Owner John Henry would've interfered with giving Lester a long-term deal in the neighborhood of what he received ahead of 2015 from Chicago.

However, it's hard to see them poaching Lester from Boston ahead of 2015 without already having Rizzo, Epstein, David Ross, etc. in-house. That said, if Boston keeps Lester, are they in the market for David Price and/or Chris Sale? What does Buchholz's future in Boston look like? Is Lester the only one retained, or do they also bring back John Lackey (who was also a key figure on the Cubs' 2016 team)?

Scenario #5: The Cubs World Series drought... still ongoing?

Rizzo and Lester each played instrumental roles on the field in getting the Cubs their first title in over a century, with Epstein calling the shots in the front office and Jed Hoyer right beside him. It's crazy to think that the Cubs only won it all in 2016, and didn't really sniff a chance at a second ring at all in the years since.

It's hard to imagine that organization winning a ring in 2016 without those three Red Sox alumni, but could they have still managed to win a ring between 2011 and 2024 had history played out this way?

Scenario #6: The Killer B's Era.

This encapsulates that entire nine-year span of Rizzo, but primarily 2013 through 2019, where Red Sox Nation got to watch Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Andrew Benintendi all come up and contribute at the MLB level—three of them became All-Stars in Boston, and all four won a World Series in 2018 (Bogaerts also in 2013).

During that 2013 to 2019 span, Rizzo slashed .276/.379/.499 and was 16th among MLB position players in fWAR. During that span, Boston deployed 21 different first basemen and tied for 21st in baseball in wRC+ from that position. It hardly interfered with winning, as they still won four division titles and two World Series in that span, but it's hard to ignore how much better the position could've been had Rizzo -- and Beltre -- been there.

During this era, the Red Sox also debuted Rafael Devers at third base, as well as Bogaerts; what is the reality that either is long for Boston in this scenario? Does that make the team better in this window?

The point of all this is: History worked out well for both Rizzo and the Red Sox. Neither side would take back that initial trade if they could. But, remember, just one move can alter the future trajectory of a franchise.