Red Sox's Game 1 Dud Against Cam Schlittler Comes Back To Their Troubles With the Curve

[N.B. Lindberg]

Cam Schlittler is, without a doubt, the AL Cy Young favorite. He led the AL in fWAR (6.2), ERA (1.95), xERA (2.85), and FIP (2.56) on the strength of a three-fastball mix. Over 33 starts and 193.2 innings, 89.3% of his pitches were either a four-seamer, cutter, or sinker. 

Entering Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, the Boston Red Sox were preparing to face a steady stream of the hard stuff. So, naturally, Schlittler leaned on his worst pitch to befuddle them all night long.

Throughout the regular season, Schlittler’s curveball was his fourth pitch. He threw it 9.8% of the time, with his highest single-game usage at 20.4% (for a total of 19). And the reason why was very simple: it wasn’t particularly good. Based on run values, it was easily his worst pitch, and it even had a higher contact rate than his sinker. 

It would be one thing if the young right-hander threw a few curveballs in the first inning to keep the Red Sox guessing, but he came out firing and never stopped. All it took was four innings and 66 pitches for him to hit 19 curveballs, equaling his season high. By the time his night was done, he had thrown 32 curveballs, comprising 27.3% of his total pitches.

It wasn’t just the volume of curves that stood out; it was the effectiveness. Fourteen were thrown for strikes, eight swinging, six called, four were fouled off, and only two were put in play. Schlittler's curveball propelled him to 6.1 innings of shutout ball with 10 strikeouts and only one walk. 

The Red Sox got caught with their pants down in Game 1. While Schlittler threw his curveball a little under 10% of the time on the season, his usage had inched up to 13.34% since June 30. It’s tough when an elite pitcher makes a wholesale shift out of the blue, though it's not like this was completely unexpected.

Simply put, this team got out-prepared by the Yankees. The fact remains that the Sox were completely helpless against a pitcher who leaned into his worst pitch. The element of surprise should only get you so far. It was a gambit that paid off for New York, but it was also an opportunity missed for Boston. They got the presumptive Cy Young winner to abandon his terms and still came up empty.

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