When Masataka Yoshida Is Healthy, Should the Red Sox Really Be Hitting Him Leadoff?

[Gottie Chavez]

The Boston Red Sox's second-half resurgence has been a full-team effort, but no turnaround has been more remarkable than the revival of the offense. Before their historic winning streak, they had a bottom-10 offense in the league with a 91 wRC+, but since then, they have improved to a top-five offense with a 115 wRC+.

But despite their improvements, the team has yet to find a consistent leadoff man. Before his long stint on the injured list, Roman Anthony was the team’s first option, but his injury caused manager Chad Tracy to turn to a committee of options. The manager's most recent choice was second baseman Nick Sogard, but Tracy shook up the lineup after Sogard went 0-for-13 during a three-game losing streak against the Toronto Blue Jays, which paved the way for Masataka Yoshida to take the reins.

Known for his elite plate discipline and strong zone recognition, Yoshida seems like an obvious choice on paper. Primarily batting in the middle of the lineup this season, he has been a consistent contributor for the team, batting .274/.347/.399 with 72 hits, 34 runs and 28 RBIs. Yoshida has spent time in each spot in the batting order, but has spent most of his time batting fifth, where his ability to avoid strikeouts and prolong at-bats has made him valuable. But while no one questions his plate discipline, the knock against Yoshida batting leadoff has been the belief that he isn’t aggressive enough. Statistically, however, that couldn’t be further from the truth.

This season, Yoshida has a 9.5% walk rate and 11.2% strikeout rate, the best marks of his MLB career. His selective approach at the plate makes him difficult to attack, as he chases pitches outside the strike zone at just a 28.1% rate but still makes contact on 72.4% of those swings. Combined with his 90.7% contact rate on swings at pitches in the strike zone, he rarely lets hittable pitches go to waste. 

However, just because he has a patient approach doesn't mean he isn’t aggressive when he gets a pitch he likes. In 0-0 or 0-1 counts this season, Yoshida is batting above .350, collecting 13 and 12 hits, respectively. He's batting only .243 from the leadoff position this season, but has been effective when leading off an inning, batting .306 with a .358 OBP. There shouldn’t be a question of whether Yoshida can be a leadoff hitter, but whether the leadoff spot is the best place to maximize his value.

Batting him first does negate some of the value created by his contact; he has been particularly effective with runners on base. While he is batting just .200 with runners in scoring position overall, that number jumps to .286 when he bats fifth. So, really, perhaps the best solution is to keep him flexible. If the lineup is struggling to put traffic on the basepaths, batting Yoshida atop the order should help alleviate those issues. If they team is struggling to bring runners home, then maybe it's best to let him hit in the middle of the lineup.

In the Red Sox’s most recent series against the Pirates, Yoshida suffered a left hamstring strain that will put him on the injured list and force Tracy to try other options at leadoff (he's gone back to favoring Sogard). That gives Boston additional time to evaluate its options at the top of the lineup and determine where Yoshida should play once he's healthy again.

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Editor Update: Yoshida's injury appears to be more significant than first feared. Chris Cotillo of MassLive has suggested that he could be done for the season.

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[Brandon Glick]

Welp. This was an unfortunately timed article