Is Caleb Durbin's Bad Start Just That, or A Sign of Things to Come for the Red Sox?

[Jordan Leandre]

By the time the Boston Red Sox traded with the Milwaukee Brewers for infielder Caleb Durbin, the lineup already looked set in stone. Of course, at the time, there was belief Romy Gonzalez, who had a career-best .305 average with a 123 wRC+ last year, would be a part of that. It turned out, the utility infielder needed shoulder surgery, thus creating a hole on the roster the public wasn't quite aware of.

After a strong spring training, there was hype surrounding the 26-year-old third baseman. He slashed .354/.446/.500, drove in nine runs, and stole three bases in 18 games. Though his batted ball data last year hinted that he was a possible regression candidate, there was hope he'd at least fit Fenway Park well enough to combat it.

Through 14 regular-season games (leading up to the series opener agains the Twins), Durbin's been anything but a fit. He's slashing .106/.208/.128 with a wRC+ of one (1) across his first 53 Red Sox plate appearances. The bright spot is, relative to his batting average, he's finding himself on base a fairly decent amount; he's drawn four walks and been hit by two pitches. But the fact remains, he's opened his Red Sox career in a 5-for-47 skid.

Durbin had some helium surrounding him going back to his torrid pace in the 2024 Arizona Fall League, then a member of the New York Yankees organization. That helium resulted in him being dealt as a headlining piece for All-Star reliever Devin Williams. A year later, he's part of a six-player trade that sends former top prospect Kyle Harrison, fellow left-hander Shane Drohan, as well as much-maligned infielder David Hamilton back to Milwaukee.

Two offseasons in a row, Durbin found himself changing organizations. That can't be a comfortable position to be in, but it was a position he seemed to face head-on with the Brewers. Last year, he finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting, posting 2.6 fWAR with the third-most hits among the freshman class. 

His knack for getting his nose dirty made him an endearing player in Milwaukee, whose style of play helps them play well above expectations over 162 games, despite not necessarily carrying over into October. His 24 hit by pitches finished second in baseball, one ahead of now-teammate Willson Contreras.

Coupled with him being short in stature, it was hard to not at least understand why some Red Sox fans drew comparisons to Dustin Pedroia, who hit .299 for his career from 2006 through 2019 -- all with Boston. But aside from his play style and frame, that's it for similarities between the two. Unless you want to count the influence of now Brewers manager Pat Murphy.

There's just no way Durbin's .106 average and .336 OPS hold up as he gets more comfortable in Boston (and he already started breaking out of that slump against Minnesota). That said, what would a turnaround for him actually look like?

Caleb Durbin Doing More of the Same Should Lead to Better Results

One of my personal criticisms of the response to this trade was the notion that because Durbin finished third in Rookie of the Year voting, he had some incredibly high ceiling. Last year, he slashed .256/.334/.387 with a 105 wRC+ in 136 games. That's far from bad, but it's not super impactful.

Ultimately, it's better to have a fringe/average bat than a bad one in your lineup, especially when that someone is merely a fine defender at his primary position. However, a lot went right for him to emerge as a 105 wRC+ guy in 2025.

For starters, his batted ball profile mirrors that of guys like Tommy Edman and Miguel Rojas. Neither player is bad, but they're not hitters you expect to contribute at a high-end level. According to Statcast's Affinity metric, used to compare hitters based on their batted ball data, says the most comparable bat to Durbin in 2025 was Los Angeles Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel.

To put that into perspective, Schanuel slashed .264/.353/.389 with a 109 wRC+ last year. Again, not bad, but hardly someone Red Sox fans dubbed a trade target this winter when there was a glaring need at first base.

Durbin's 2025 Baseball Savant Page*

Durbin's batted ball data suggested a proficiency for making contact, but not a whole lot of damaging contact. He hit 11 home runs, the most he's ever hit in a professional season, but he's not a guy whose swing generates a lot of power, even with a 20.4% Pull Air rate in 2025.

So far, he's pulling it in the air at just a 13.9% clip in 2026, so perhaps an easy fix is generating more pull, but is it really that simple? 

How Are Pitchers Attacking Him?

Pretty much exactly the same way they attacked him last year. I scoured Baseball Savant for a while trying to find a different game plan from the opposition. There isn't one.

Last year, Durbin saw fastballs on the inner third of the plate on 9.4% of pitches. This year, 9.4% as well. Last year, Durbin saw fastballs on the outer third 9.7% of his pitches; this year, 9.4. Last year, he saw offspeed pitches 9.1% of the time; this year, up to 10.5.

He's seeing fastballs at a slightly elevated rate in general, 62.3% versus 57.3% last year, but he's just not finding green. He's only whiffing against fastballs 7.8% of his swings against them. His exit velocity against them is up from 84.4 mph to 86.2 mph on average. The marked difference is his launch angle is down from 14 degrees to just eight in 2026.

His contact is firmer, but the line drives are more topspin than anything. His swing path is one degree to the pull side, down from four degrees last year. His ideal attack angle is negligible, but this is a game oftentimes of millimeters. He's basically in a perfect storm of mishitting the baseball.

The Good News is...

It's all fixable with a change in his swing mechanics. As mentioned, there's no marked difference in how the opposition is attacking him, save for slightly more fastballs that, early on, is too soon to tell if it'll stick all year. If he can get lean back into what worked for him last year, generating more pulled contact in the air (even without a ton of power), there's still a pathway for him to be productive, especially in Fenway.

Additionally, because the season has started so poorly for him, getting back to even what he was in 2025 will require a white-hot stretch in all likelihood. Right now, he's lukewarm. Despite already falling out of favor within the fan base -- which is a bit ridiculous -- he's slowly started getting it going of late.

After starting the season 0-for-18 with a walk, good for a -92 wRC+ across 19 plate appearances, he's 5-for-his-last-29 with three walks, two hit by pitches, and five runs batted in. Include the first game agains the Twins, and he's 7-for-34. While saying people should be grateful for his .172 batting average over that span is a bit silly, that .294 on-base is actually fifth on the team since April 3; minimum 10 plate appearances.

This is not a sexy player. When he's rolling, it'll be very old school-oriented with an array of line drive singles and doubles. Expecting him to be more than the player he is was unfair from jump street. He's not Rafael Devers; he's not even Alex Bregman. He's Caleb Durbin.

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