Sonny Gray Was A Necessary Addition, but the Red Sox Still Need A No. 2 Starter

[Alex Mayes]

Editor's Note: Dylan Cease signed with the Toronto Blue Jays after this was written but before it was published.

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In a pre-Thanksgiving shocker, the Boston Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals. Gray’s addition to the starting rotation, along with the $20 million the Cardinals sent with him, makes him the perfect Lucas Giolito replacement.

However, he can't (and obviously won't) be the team's only premier addition this offseason. Ideally, the Red Sox are still in on an impact bat to play a corner infield spot, as well as another arm to slot into the number two spot in the rotation. According to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo, the team is shifting their current focus to adding that impact bat as the Winter Meetings approach.

This makes a ton of sense as the offseason hasn’t even truly gotten started. Yes, we’ve seen the Seattle Mariners lock up Josh Naylor long-term while the Rangers and Mets recently made a rare one-for-one trade in addition to the Gray trade. The ball won’t really get rolling until the Winter Meetings during the first weekend in December. As we know, that’s where Craig Breslow swung a blockbuster trade to bring Garrett Crochet to Boston last year. Could Breslow be looking to sign a name like Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber this time around? It’s likely, but he’s also poised to swing a trade for another arm while he’s there. 

As we’ve highlighted here at Talk Sox, the trade between the Rangers and Mets likely has a large impact on the plans the Red Sox have made for this offseason. The Rangers, a team that needed outfield help, now have it, and the Mets, who are still trying to figure out how to beat the Dodgers, now could use an impact bat to slot into their outfield and have pitchers to choose from. Luckily for them, the Red Sox are ripe with outfield talent who should be moved to add another arm into the rotation. Even though the offense is seeking a necessary upgrade, we saw just how crucial having three starters to carry the team into the playoffs is in modern day baseball.

We’ve talked at length about how Crochet is the guy in Boston now, and for good reason, but even with the addition of Gray, he needs another arm behind him to take some of the weight off his shoulders. Brayan Bello took another step forward in 2025 until the end of the season when fatigue caught up with him and Connelley Early and Payton Tolle both flashed serious upside and will be competing for a backend rotation spot in spring training, but a true number two is still a must-add. 

Gray profiles as a number three starter at this point in his career. In 2025, he posted a 4.28 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate to go along with his 3.6 fWAR. He logged 180.2 innings over 32 games. That ERA is less than desirable and would have him ranked fourth on the Red Sox among starters who threw at least 20 games last season. His innings though, would have been second on the team by almost 20, and his fWAR would have placed him second as well, almost two full points higher than Giolito. Having that type of arm slide into the number three spot in the rotation means that when the Red Sox head into October, that they have three starters (Crochet, Gray, Bello) they can count on to carry them on a deep playoff run. Eschewing another top-tier pitching addition would be incredibly shortsighted in an American-League landscape that is lacking a true top contender outside of the Blue Jays and Mariners, and that's assuming they can both repeat their 2025 success. 

Sonny Gray is a great addition for the Red Sox, especially on a restructured contract that allows for the team to make more moves this offseason.. The Red Sox absolutely need to add an impact bat, and hopefully bring Alex Bregman back into the fold, but they shouldn’t put all their attention on the offensive side of the ball just yet. There are still ace-caliber arms that can be added over the coming days and weeks. If the goal is to emerge as more than just another contender among a crowded group of such teams, Boston would be wise to compound their addition of Gray with another front-of-the-rotation arm.

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[harmony]

Sonny Gray might not be the ideal choice to start Game 2 of a postseason series but the veteran right-hander should help a team secure a playoff berth.

Steamer ranks Gray ninth among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of many pitchers who might be a better choice as a Game 2 starter:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764301458&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

Gray's regular-season bulk has value.