Article: Masataka Yoshida's Return to Red Sox Has Gone Exactly as Expected

[Brandon Glick]

On July 9, Masataka Yoshida returned to the Boston Red Sox's lineup following a long, first-half-spanning hiatus due to an involved offseason shoulder surgery. There were rumors last offseason that the team was looking to trade him, with the intention of both freeing up payroll and an outfield spot in anticipation of Roman Anthony's debut.

Obviously, that trade didn't come to fruition thanks to the shoulder injury. So, for at least the next few months, Yoshida is set to be a semi-regular staple in the lineup, and the good news is he looks more or less exactly like the player we've come to expect over the past few seasons.

Since signing a five-year, $90-million contract in December 2022, Yoshida hasn't quite delivered on the great ceiling that his seven-year run in the NPB with the Orix Buffaloes portended: a .327/.421/.539 slash line with 133 home runs. Over his first two seasons with the Red Sox, the designated hitter played in 248 of a possible 324 games, accrued 2.8 WAR, posted an OPS of .775 and wRC+ of 112, and produced 82 extra-base hits. Through 18 games in 2025 (not including his 0-for-3 performance on Sunday), Yoshida is slashing .258/.288/.419, good for an 89 wRC+. A slight setback in production, to be sure, but add the usual small sample caveats to the fact that he's still knocking off the rust from his extended break, and he's generally performing in line with expectations.

The underlying numbers generally tell the same story. By negligible margins, his batting average is down from last year but his expected batting average is up, and the opposite his true for his slugging. His wOBA has trended down since his rookie year in 2023, though he's hitting the ball harder than ever this season (42.3% hard-hit rate, 91.0 mph average exit velocity). He's barreling up more balls than he has in the past and he's chasing less, but he's whiffing and striking out more while walking less. Add it all up, and you get a guy who, for all intents and purposes, is Masataka Yoshida. Hardly groundbreaking analysis, I know, but that's sort of the point. Given the data we have thus far, all we can really say about the Japanese outfielder is that the shoulder injury hasn't impacted his approach or talents too much.

If you want something to pinpoint as the reason for his minor struggles since returning, it's clear that Yoshida's timing is off. His in-zone and out-of-zone (chase) contact rates have always been leagues better than the MLB average thanks to his exceptional bat control, though that also means that, in certain circumstances, he gets punished for poor timing more than most. It's one thing to be late on a fastball and swing and miss at it (or weakly foul it off); it's another thing to be late on a fastball and punch a weak ground out to third base because your bat stays in the zone for so long.

Unfortunately, as is wont to happen with players returning from long layoffs, Yoshida's timing is still a work in progress. Fastballs have long been his bread and butter—.445 wOBA against such pitches in 2023, .371 wOBA in 2024—but he's down to a below-average .306 wOBA against heaters in 2025. Consider that his hard-hit rate against fastballs is actually up to 53.8% this year (a career high), and you have a relatively clear picture of a guy who can still crush them when he guesses right... but it's clear that he's doing just that: guessing. Again, the sample sizes are so small for other offerings that it's impossible to draw relevant conclusions for them, but he is hitting sliders, splitters, and sweepers better this year, suggesting that he may just be a bit late in his swing process right now, hence why he's hitting slow stuff better and hard stuff worse.

Beyond the batter's box, he's played all of two games in the outfield thus far, which is also to be expected following shoulder surgery. It was actually in 2024 that he became the Red Sox's full-time designated hitter (following his rookie season in which he provided -8 Outs Above Average in more than 700 innings), so even a healthy shoulder isn't going to get Yoshida playing time in Boston's crowded outfield glut. As a designated hitter who can fill in somewhat capably as a fourth or fifth outfielder, his value on defense will always come from his ability to give other guys a day of rest without having to maneuver the 26-man roster around.

And... that's about it with Yoshida. He's never been a particularly good baserunner, his home and road splits aren't drastic enough to bear mentioning (his career OPS is 50 points higher at Fenway), and while he seems to be well-liked in the clubhouse, he certainly isn't one of the leaders on the team. He is what he is: a solid left-handed hitter who can play a passable left or right field in a pinch.

It's nice to see that he's still capable of producing at his usual rate following a serious shoulder injury. But, for anyone hoping he'd evolve into something more than he's previously shown, it's probably time to divert that optimism elsewhere.

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