Article: Checking in on Kristian Campbell's Time in Worcester

[Nick John]

It’s been an interesting season for Kristian Campbell, as the rookie broke camp with the Red Sox and opened the season on a hot streak that had fans picturing him as the Rookie of the Year just two weeks into the season. He even received a massive extension, signifying his place as a core piece of the future.

It's been all downhill from there, as Campbell struggled mightily after April, hitting just .134/.184/.171 in the month of May. In June, Campbell was sent down to Triple-A Worcester to work on some things offensively and to get work at first base as he was one of the worst, if not the worst, defender in the major leagues while at second base with -14 defensive runs saved.

Since going down to Worcester, Campbell has finally started to look like himself while learning a new position. In 28 games since his demotion, Campbell is hitting .267/.398/.438 with four doubles, a triple, four home runs and 14 RBIs. But when we take a deeper look into it, is Campbell improving on the issues he faced at the major leagues?

One of his biggest issues was an inability to pull inside pitches, mostly hitting them to the opposite field for easy outs or striking out (not including that home run in Detroit that he just muscled out to right field). Before his demotion on June 20, Campbell had an exit velocity of 88.6 mph while only barreling up the ball at a 5.1% rate. To go with that, he was chasing pitches outside of the zone at a 23.4% rate (a rather good number as he was in the 76th percentile), but whiffing on 27.3% of pitches he swung at in general and striking out at a 27.4% rate. What really hurt him was that he was only pulling balls at a 28.7% rate, going to the opposite field at a 33.8% clip and back up the middle at 37.6% of the time.

Those numbers have slightly changed in the time he’s been in Worcester. It hasn’t come easy, as Campbell began his return to Worcester going just 9-for-45 in his first nine games. However, in the span from July 19 to July 27, he has been on fire, seemingly getting back on track to being the hitter that made him a top prospect. In that nine game stretch, he hit .407/.484/.667 with a 13% walk rate and a 23% strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. This included Campbell crushing a home run to left at 104.3 mph.

 

Since his demotion, Campbell has actually improved upon pulling the ball with Worcester, now up to a 47.8% rate. That does come with the caveat that he's rarely hitting the ball up the middle (16.4%), while going to the opposite field 35.8% of the time. His timing remains a work in progress, hence why he's still hitting the ball on the ground so often. With Worcester, he's hitting groundballs 51.5% of the time and line drives at a 28.8% rate. Unfortunately, his fly balls have dropped to a paltry 19.7% clip. He still needs to work on getting the ball in the air and pulling it to left more, something that would allow him to take advantage of the Green Monster in Boston. 

It’s been a slow improvement, but when learning a whole new position while working on your hitting mechanics, things are rarely going to be smooth. It's promising that his .171 ISO is a big jump over his number in Boston (.122), and his 127 wRC+ with Worcester paints a promising picture for the future.

Could Campbell return to the team after the trade deadline if they fail to acquire a first baseman? Defensively, Campbell has only played 16 games at first base, but in that span, he’s yet to make an error in the 133 2/3 innings he’s played in the field. It’s a small group of data, but with the Red Sox needing first production as Abraham Toro has fallen off in July, the team may decide to give Campbell another opportunity in the majors, this time at the cold corner. Doing so would also allow them to save prospects and other resources to use in a trade to improve their rotation and/or bullpen.

He’s young, this being his age-23 season, and is still learning. People need to remember he went through High-A, Double-A and Triple-A last season before making his major league debut on Opening Day this year. Campbell is smart and he’s showing he can make the adjustments when given time; it shouldn't be long before he’s back in Boston helping the team.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

Thanks for the update.  I have been following him too and he's been on fire and Toro is stair-stepping down each month.  He hit .296 in May, .279 in June and .238 while BOS was hot in July.  

A second half regression should happen for Narvaez, Toro and Gonzalez and now it might happen with Rafaela not playing outfield.  Cora needs Rafaela in RF so he's set for the next 10 years.  BOS needs to use Gonzalez and Toro at 2B until Mayer returns.

Guys like Campbell don't have years like 2024 and then suddenly suck.  Players who are rookies should focus on one thing at a time when joining the MLB.  Cora had him learning 2B, CF, RF and 1B.  His fast start was halted when he was asked to start learning 1B because Story was looking good so Mayer got pushed to 2B which sent a loud message to the rookie that he's the odd man out after being player of the year.  Cora has no personal skills when it comes to dealing with great young players.  He screwed Duran a couple of years ago, Rafaela last year and now Campbell.  We all knew Mayer is injury prone so pushing out Campbell at 2B to make room for an injury prone player seems like a bad move.  He and Story both struggle with injuries and Mayer was slotted to be a SS so stop messing with all the prospects and let them learn their jobs at the MLB level.  Mayer should be the utility player since Story is healthy but he should get his shot when Story gets hurt so the future line-up can be intact.  Now, with Campbell comfortable at 1B, there is room for Campbell, Mayer, Story and Bregman with Anthony in LF, Duran in CF his best position and Rafaela in RF where he will likely win Platinum Gloves versus the weak competition in the AL RF position.  That leaves a competition between Abreu and Yoshida for DH and frankly since Abreu can't hit LH pitchers (.199 average) Yoshida should get the nod unless Abreu comes out of his current cold streak and starts one of his hot streaks.  Yoshida can face the LH pitchers when necessary.