Article: Make or Break Players on the 2025 Red Sox: Kutter Crawford

[Alex Mayes]

Kutter Crawford was a dependable starter for the Red Sox in 2024, but he had some major flaws in starts. What went wrong last season, and what could go right in 2025? 

Kutter Crawford was a member of the “30 Start Boys” along with Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello in 2024. You knew that every fifth day, Crawford would take the ball and be able to post on his scheduled start day. What you were far less sure of, though, was whether he would turn in a quality start or serve up home runs on a silver platter to opposing hitters. Let’s look at what went wrong for Crawford in 2024 and how his 2025 season can rebound.

What Went Wrong in 2024?
Crawford's biggest issue last season was gifting the long ball to opposing hitters. However, there may be some explanation as to why that started happening. He recently told reporters in Fort Myers that he injured his patellar tendon during his third start of the 2024 season. He was covering first base, and as soon as he “hit the base, something happened. I just couldn’t put a whole lot of weight on it.” Due to a “couple hiccups” in his rehab during the offseason, his spring training has not ramped up to the level of other pitchers. Not being able to put weight on his right leg limited the push-off he could have from the mound, causing his velocity to drop over the season.

Crawford's fastball was down a full mile per hour from 2023 (93.6) to 2024 (92.6). The biggest difference we see is a change in his slugging percentage. In 2023, Crawford came in with a .388 slugging percentage against. Not great, but compared to 2024’s number, .412, that .388 seems like a dream situation. He gave up a lot of hard contact in 2024. The other pitches also suffered when he lost a full MPH on his fastball. Opposing hitters were able to sit and wait on pitches they wanted as none of his stuff had ticked up, and they could hunt his fastball, which lives high in the zone most of the time.

What Could Go Right in 2025?
This is a bit of a loaded question, as patellar tendon injuries tend to linger and could require surgery. Should Crawford continue to experience pain and discomfort in that knee, we could see him shut down for the bulk of 2025. Luckily, the Red Sox have a much deeper rotation and can stand to weather that storm should they have to.

However, I think the thing that can go absolutely right for Crawford in 2025 lies in him upping his splitter usage. He didn’t throw it a ton in 2024, just nine percent of the time, but it clocks in at a full four MPH slower than the MLB average splitter, and with the correct movement, it tumbles from high in the zone to low. Hitters are more likely to swing over the top of a splitter when it starts where a typical four-seam fastball lives but then drops to the bottom of the zone. The strikeout percentage on the splitter was almost 20 points higher than his fastball, 41.3% versus 25.4%. Incorporating the splitter into his arsenal should help him induce more ground balls, bringing his hard-hit and slugging percentage back down to earth.

There are many questions about Kutter Crawford’s availability heading into the 2025 season. However, if his knee holds up, having him as the sixth option for the rotation or the long man in the bullpen should mean great things for the Red Sox rotation this season.

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