My 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot

[Daniel Fox]

The 2025 Hall of Fame ballot is out, and some burning questions need answers. Will Ichiro Suzuki join Mariano Rivera as the only unanimously elected Hall of Famers? Is this finally the year for Billy Wagner? Which franchise second baseman should get the call? Should CC Sabathia get in on the first ballot?

Since my very first days writing about baseball, I have always had a fascination with the Hall of Fame. As someone who loves a good argument, the idea of using analytics with a dash of subjective opinion to decide who is bestowed with baseball’s greatest honor was as good as it gets. Before writing my mock ballot this year, I went back to 2019 and took a look at my very first Hall of Fame article. Here are the 10 players I selected:

1. Mariano Rivera
2. Edgar Martinez
3. Curt Schilling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Fred McGriff
6. Roy Halladay
7. Larry Walker
8. Jeff Kent
9. Barry Bonds
10. Roger Clemens

That’s a pretty fun list, and by the way, I still think Jeff Kent should get his due. One thing you may notice is that I filled all 10 spots on the ballot, but that is not a necessity for me. If there are not 10 players who are worthy of the Hall of Fame in my eyes, I am not going to fill all 10 spots for the sake of “keeping players on the ballot for future discussions.” This year, for instance, I only put seven players on my ballot because I only considered seven players worthy of induction.

That doesn’t mean, however, that I am not open to changing my mind. The great thing about Hall of Fame discourse is how fluid is. Your vote for one year does not leave you beholden to that player the following year, as there are constantly new points and comparisons made that can change your viewpoint on a player. To go back to that original ballot, two players who didn’t crack my top 10 are getting my vote six years later. The statistics of these retired stars may not be changing, but the way we think and talk about them are. Alright, enough yapping. Here is my 2025 Hall of Fame ballot:  

1. OF Ichiro Suzuki, Year 1 

• Current Tracking: 100%

We’ll kick things off with the most obvious first-ballot selection since Derek Jeter. I’m not going to waste a ton of time here: We all know that Ichiro is a Hall of Famer. His first decade in Seattle will never again be replicated, from his MVP debut in 2001 to his record 262 hits in 2004 to his 10 consecutive Gold Gloves in his first 10 seasons. Whether it was watching him poke a seemingly unhittable pitch over the third baseman’s head or seeing him gun down a foolish baserunner attempting to advance to third, you knew you were experiencing greatness every time Ichiro took the field. 

The only real question around Ichiro’s candidacy is whether he will be the first unanimous position-player Hall of Famer. I fear there is one cranky old writer who looks at his relatively meager 107 career OPS+ or his 60.0 career WAR and says he falls short of Hall of Famer standards. This, of course, would be absolutely ridiculous, not just because Ichiro spent a number of his prime years in Japan but because numbers fail to tell the whole story of Ichiro. There is no quantifying just how miserable he made opposing pitchers or how much fear he put in opposing baserunners. I love baseball statistics as much as anyone, but there is simply no way to tell the story of Ichiro solely through numbers. 

Regardless, it is not up to me to determine whether or not every single writer will check off Ichiro’s name on his ballot. I know he’s a Hall of Famer, and you do, too. Let’s move on.

2. SP CC Sabathia, Year 1 

• Current Tracking: 90.8%

Think back through the last quarter-century of baseball. If you had to give the ball to one player in a game you had to win, who would it be? The first name to come to mind may be Justin Verlander, the two-time champion who has delivered in countless big spots for the Tigers and Astros. Then, of course, there is Madison Bumgarner, whose 0.25 World Series ERA is the lowest of all time. Yet while he may not have the trophy case like Verlander or the raw numbers like Bumgarner, CC Sabathia epitomized the modern workhorse for nearly two decades, and his performances down the stretch in 2008 and in the 2009 postseason were among the best and the most clutch of any pitcher in recent memory. 

Let’s backtrack a bit, however, because Sabathia’s career had a number of different stages. He debuted with in Cleveland in 2001, and though he made a pair of All-Star teams in 2003 and 2004, his 4.10 ERA through his first five seasons hardly indicated a Hall of Famer. It took until 2006 for Sabathia to have his first truly special season, as he posted a 3.22 ERA and led the league with six complete games. He would take it to another level in 2007, capturing his first and only Cy Young win by leading the league with 241 innings pitched and striking out over 200 batters for the first time. 

His time in Cleveland, however, would end on a sour note, as he got rocked by the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS and took a step back in the first half of 2008. Looking to spur their own playoff run, the Milwaukee Brewers acquired him on July 7, and Sabathia would deliver beyond their wildest imaginations. The big lefty completed seven of his 17 starts, posting a 1.65 ERA in that stretch and earning 11 crucial wins. His last start of the regular season may have been his best, as his complete-game four-hitter clinched the Brewers' first postseason appearance since 1982. Though he finally ran out of gas in his lone postseason appearance, his fourth consecutive outing on three days’ rest, his remarkable second half helped him earn a seven-year/$162 million contract with the Yankees.

It’s hard to imagine a better first season for Sabathia in pinstripes than the one he turned in 2009. He once again finished in the top five in Cy Young voting thanks to a league-leading 19 wins and a 3.37 ERA, but unlike the previous two campaigns, Sabathia also came up huge in the postseason. He kicked off the Yankees ALDS sweep of the Twins by allowing just one run over 6.2 innings before overwhelming the Angels in the ALCS to the tune of two runs in 16 innings. A pair of Chase Utley home runs made him the tough-luck loser in the World Series opener, but he bounced back in Game 4 with 6.2 strong innings to give the Yankees a commanding 3-1 series lead. In total, Sabathia posted a 1.98 during the Yankees championship run, averaging over seven innings a start and striking out 32 batters against just nine walks. 

The next three seasons would be more of the same for Sabathia, as he tossed over 200 innings in each campaign and collected three more All-Star appearances. Though injuries limited him to a career-low 28 starts in 2012, Sabathia more than made up for in the postseason, almost single-handedly dragging the Yankees past the Orioles in the ALDS. This included a complete-game masterpiece in the decisive Game 5 in which he allowed just one run and struck out nine. 

Unfortunately for Sabathia, his injuries in 2012 would foreshadow his steady decline, as his performance began to slip the following year. He led the league in earned runs in 2013 and was limited to just eight miserable starts in 2014. It appeared all those innings had finally taken their toll, but to his credit, Sabathia began to reinvent himself, transforming from a power pitcher to a control artist. From 2016-2018, Sabathia made at least 27 starts and posted a sub-4.00, remaining a key cog in the Yankees rotation. He would gut out one more injury-plagued campaign in 2019 before calling it a career at the age of 38. ‘

As much as there is to like about Sabathia’s resume, one thing that might hurt him in the eyes of the voters is his 3.74 ERA. The only Hall of Famers with a higher mark are Red Ruffing, who pitched during the offensive-explosion 1930s, and Jack Morris, who needed the Veterans Committee to earn election. Like these two pitchers, however, Sabathia also played in a hitter-friendly era with the added challenge of spending over half of his career in the ultra-competitive AL East. A much better indicator of Sabathia’s performance is ERA+, which factors into the offensive environment of the time. His mark of 116 is actually ahead of Hall of Famers Jim Bunning, Steve Carlton, and Ferguson Jenkins, despite each pitcher having a much lower raw ERA. 

What Sabathia lacks in run prevention, he makes up for in longevity. Among pitchers who debuted after 1980, only Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Jamie Moyer, and Roger Clemens threw more than Sabathia’s 3,577 innings. This allowed him to pile up the punchouts and help him become just the eighth pitcher this century to reach the 3,000-strikeout milestone. That’s a good sign for Sabathia, as 16 of the other 18 members of the club are in Cooperstown, with the only exceptions being the steroid-using Roger Clemens and the controversial Curt Schilling. 

Far from being a stat compiler, Sabathia’s peak is right up there with the Hall of Fame standards. From 2006 to 2012, Sabathia never posted an ERA above 3.38 while averaging 32 starts a season and placing in the top five in Cy Young voting five times. His 39.4 WAR during that period is ahead of 17 Hall of Famers, including the recently elected Morris and John Smoltz. 

Sabathia may not have as clear-cut a case as Johnson, Maddux, or Martinez, but if you are only willing to elect the perfect pitchers, you are going to have a very small Hall of Fame. This has been reflected in the recent Hall of Fame voting, as only two starting pitchers have been elected by the writers since 2015. With the increased attention paid to pitch counts and personalized relievers, the reliance on starting pitchers has never been lower, and starting pitchers are struggling to meet the traditional thresholds that once were deemed necessary for Hall of Fame induction.

Though this might seem contradictory to what I just said, it is because of that decreased valuation of starting pitchers that Sabathia has such a strong case. He was a workhorse in every sense of the word, a throwback to the traditional aces of yesterday. When pitchers were looking over their shoulders at the 100-pitch mark, Sabathia was still working into the eighth and ninth innings. His numbers should tell the story of a surefire Hall of Famer, but an even bigger indication of how special he was was how much the Indians, Brewers, and Yankees relied on them with their season on the line. He checks every box that you could want in a number one pitcher, and hopefully enough writers check his box to elect him into Cooperstown on the first ballot.

3. OF Carlos Beltrán, Year 3

• Last Year: 57.1%
• Current Tracking: 78.5% (+11 net votes)

Carlos Beltrán entered the Hall of Fame ballot in 2023 as one of the biggest unknowns in recent memories. On the field, he was one of the most talented players of his era, but he spent many of his most dynamic years out of the spotlight in Kansas City, and his seven years in New York, though excellent, were defined mostly by injuries and postseason disappointment. He finally got his ring with the Houston Astros in 2017, but became one of the ringleaders of a cheating scandal that ultimately cost him a gig as New York Mets manager. 

With a divisive Cooperstown candidacy, Beltrán appeared to be a long shot to be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, but his debut-year vote total would be a key indicator of his eventual chances of getting elected. It was therefore a terrific sign when he garnered 46.5% of the vote in 2023 before climbing to 57.1% in 2024. With eight remaining years of eligibility and the ballot finally beginning to clear out, Beltrán seems like a sure bet to reach the 75% plateau necessary for election. 

The difficult part of evaluating Beltrán’s career is that it almost feels...underwhelming. This might seem crazy to say, given his career 435 home runs and 70.1 WAR, but considering how talented he was in every phase of the game and his miraculous three-month run with the 2004 Astros, you feel like he should have more than one top-five MVP finish. Yet I believe that most of the narratives surrounding Beltrán throughout his career were unjust and created a perception of his abilities that was reflected in MVP voting and his status among the game’s elite players.

Beltrán’s rollercoaster of a career began in Kansas City where, after winning the Rookie of the Year in 1999, he had the sophomore slump to end all sophomore slumps. Injuries limited him to just 98 games, in which he hit just seven home runs and posted a 69 OPS+. He bounced back with three straight fantastic seasons, averaging 26 home runs and 36 stolen bases a year, but he failed to make a single All-Star team. The Royals never seriously contended for the playoffs in any of those seasons, and those who weren’t watching Beltrán still viewed him as a talented underperformer.

Beltrán would finally get his shot at a postseason chase in 2004, and he would deliver beyond even the most optimistic expectations. He was traded to the Astros at midseason and helped them capture the NL Wild Card by hitting 23 home runs and converting on all 28 stolen base attempts in just 90 games. He somehow took his game to another level in the postseason, homering eight times in just 12 games and nearly willing the Astros to their first-ever World Series.

This performance earned him a seven-year, $119-million contract with the New York Mets, thrusting him into the national spotlight for a team on the rise. They say first impressions are everything, and Beltran’s 2005 season was a disaster. Though he stayed healthy enough to play 151 games, he saw his home run total decrease from 38 to 16, and his 97 OPS+ was the second-lowest mark of his career. He became the main scapegoat for the Mets' disappointing third-place finish, and he would struggle to ever get the fans back on his side. Take 2006, for example. Beltrán had a phenomenal bounce-back campaign, setting career-highs with 41 home runs and 116 RBI during an 8.2-win season. His performance helped the Mets win their first division title since 1988, and he continued to produce into October with three home runs and a .978 OPS. Yet the defining moment of that season, and ultimately his Mets career, wasn’t any of those big hits. It was the image of his bat glued to his shoulder on an Adam Wainwright curveball that stranded the bases loaded and clinched the NL pennant for the Cardinals.

Beltrán would put together two more excellent campaigns in 2007 and 2008, but both would again be overshadowed by the Mets collapsing down the stretch and missing the playoffs. Beltrán was becoming the face of the Mets' talented-yet-disappointing teams of the mid-2000s, and injuries in 2009 and 2010 didn’t help the narrative. Beltrán got off to a strong start in 2011, but by then the Mets were getting ready to rebuild, and they shipped him to the Giants at the trade deadline. 

Though not as graceful and speedy as he was in his youth, Beltrán remained a solid player through the end of his career. Bouncing between the Cardinals, Yankees, and Rangers, Beltrán averaged 22 home runs and posted a 118 OPS+ from 2012-2016, making a pair of All-Star teams along the way. He finished his career as a veteran leader on the infamous 2017 Astros team, earning his first ring in dubious fashion. 

Although Beltrán ’s career had so many twists and turns that it is hard to put a finger on what kind of player he really was, the cumulative stats show a player who is clearly Hall of Fame worthy. His 70.1 WAR is just a tick below the average HOF standard, but that total can be a bit misleading because Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Willie Mays, and Ty Cobb are so far above everyone else. In terms of center fielders who played entirely in the expansion era (post-1961), Beltrán trails only Ken Griffey Jr. and is ahead of both Andre Dawson and Kirby Puckett. The picture gets even rosier if you move over to right field, as Beltrán exceeds the career marks of Tony Gwynn (69.2), Dave Winfield (64.2), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (59.5).

While Beltrán may not have had a true standout tool like Gwynn’s bat-to-ball ability, Winfield’s power, or Vlad’s arm, his combination of skills puts him in elite company. Only four other players have collected over 500 doubles, 400 homers, and 300 steals, a group that includes the aforementioned Mays and Dawson as well as Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds. Beltrán was also a remarkably efficient baserunner, as his 86.4% stolen base percentage is the highest of any player with over 200 stolen bases. 

Of course, you can’t tell Beltrán ’s story without mentioning the 2017 Astros cheating scandal, but there are a couple of reasons why it doesn’t influence me as much as, say, the repeated steroid use of Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. For one, it was a collective violation, and while Beltrán may have been the leader in the clubhouse, it’s difficult to assess how much of the blame he should receive. It also had no effect on his on-field performance, especially considering it came during the last year of his career when he was relegated to part-time duty. Finally, I would argue that Beltrán has already been punished more than any other member of that team, as he has still not managed a game despite A.J Hinch and Alex Cora, the manager and bench coach of that team, returning after year-long suspensions. 

So yes, Beltrán’s career was undoubtedly noisier than most, but all of that distracts from what was one of the truly great talents of his generation. It may take a few more years, but Beltrán will soon earn his rightful place in Cooperstown.

4. OF Andruw Jones, Year 8

• Last Year: 61.6%
• This Year: 72.3% (+4)

With every passing year, the Cooperstown Case for Andruw Jones becomes more clear. He debuted on a 2018 ballot that had nine future Hall of Famers on it, and he received just 7.3% of the vote. His candidacy looked cooked when his vote total climbed just 0.2% in 2019, but as the ballot began to clear out, Jones started to pick up some momentum. He jumped up to 19.4% in 2020 and has steadily climbed each year, reaching a high-water mark of 61.6% in 2024. With three years remaining on the ballot, it looks more probable than not that Jones will be elected by the BBWAA. 

So what happened? I believe when Jones first came on the ballot, voters were put off by his sharp drop-off after age 30. The decline began in his last season with the Braves in 2007, which saw him post career-lows in average (.222), slugging percentage (.313), and WAR (3.0). Jones was still able to sign a hefty two-year deal with the Dodgers, but he would only last one year in Chavez Revine after a disastrous -1.6 WAR season. He would stick around the league for four more seasons as a semi-productive platoon player, but he would never again play more than 107 games in a season. In total, Jones accumulated just 1.7 WAR after his age-30 season while batting just .210.

There is no doubt that this unprecedented drop-off scared off Hall of Fame voters, as did his career .254 average. Since the dead-ball era, only Harmon Killebrew has been elected to the Hall of Fame with an average below .260, and he played in the pitcher-dominated 1960s. Jones, meanwhile, played in the heart of the steroid era, yet he only batted over .275 one time. 

These two factors help explain why Jones failed to gain traction early on, but as time went on and more analytically-minded writers entered the fray, the focus began to shift from what he couldn’t do to what he could do. Jones may have never been the same all-around hitter as some of his peers, but he possessed a combination of lethal power and elite defense not seen for decades. Don’t believe me? Here’s the list of players with 10 Gold Gloves and over 450 home runs: Mike Schmidt, Willie Mays , and Andruw Jones. While Gold Gloves can sometimes be a popularity contest, there is no questioning Jones’ defensive prowess. Despite the aforementioned decline in his 30s, the center fielder accumulated 24.4 defensive WAR in his career, more than any outfielder in MLB history. Any way you slice it, Jones is one of the greatest defenders in the history of baseball. 

On the strength of his defense alone, Jones would have a solid Hall of Fame case. Defensive wizards like Brooks Robinson and Ozzie Smith breezed into Cooperstown despite unimpressive offensive numbers. Yet not only was Jones not a zero with his bat, he was one of the best power hitters of his era. From 1998-2006, only seven players hit more home runs than Jones’ 319 home runs and only five players had more than 30 home-run seasons. And despite Jones being out of the league at 35, the only non-steroid connected players with more career home runs who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are Carlos Delgado, Adam Dunn, Dave Kingman, and Paul Konerko, each of whom were poor defenders limited to first base. 

The Hall of Fame is and should be about greatness. I would much rather see a player who was at the top of his craft for ten years than one who compiled stats over a multi-decade career without truly being dominant. Yes, Jones may not have the longevity of the average Hall of Famer, but from the time he entered the league at age 19 to his last year in Atlanta at age 30, there was no more dynamic outfielder in the game. He was truly the best of the best, and those types of players deserve to be in Cooperstown.

5. RP Billy Wagner, Year 9

• Last Year: 73.8%
• Current Tracking: 89.2% (+5)

It is a travesty that we have even gotten to this point with Billy Wagner. Despite spending a decade-and-a-half as one of the most dominant pitchers of all time on a rate basis, Wagner will have just two more chances to reach the 75% threshold necessary for election before falling off the ballot. Fortunately, Wagner fell just five votes short in 2024, and given that Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker already has him picking up five votes, he is just about a sure thing to get inducted this go-around. But why did it take this long? The most obvious and simple reason is that he isn’t Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera. Both pitchers were icons, registered over 600 saves, and breezed into the Hall of Fame (although Hoffman somehow took three years). Wagner, on the other hand, bounced around five teams, tallied only 421 saves, and has needed to fight for every vote. 

The problem with comparing Wagner to Hoffman and Rivera, however, is that the threshold for election should not be matching the two unquestioned best closers of all time. A number of other closers have earned election, all of whom Wagner matches up against very favorably. One prime example is Lee Smith, who was recently elected by the Today’s Games Committee. When you stack the two pitchers against each other, the numbers aren’t even really that close:

Player	IP	ERA	ERA+	K	BB	WHIP	WAR
Lee Smith	1,289.1	3.03	132	1,251	486	1.26	28.9
Billy Wagner	903	2.31	187	1,196	300	0.99	27.7

The one distinct advantage Smith has is that he threw nearly 400 more innings than Wagner, which is another common point people use against Wagner’s candidacy. Some people just can’t get behind voting for a pitcher who has less than 1,000 career innings. Yet the reason I’ve never really understood that argument is that it isn’t Wagner’s fault he threw so few innings. This isn’t a Johan Santana situation, whose seemingly Hall-of-Fame career was upended by injuries. Wagner’s job was to come in for one inning at a time, and he did that as well as anybody in the history of baseball. No, that is not hyperbole. For the 903 innings he threw, Wagner was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the history of baseball. Among pitchers in the live ball era with as many innings pitched, only Mariano Rivera has a lower ERA, only Jacob Degrom has a lower WHIP, and no one can top his 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Simply put, if you had to pick one pitcher to give you one inning in a game you had to win, you would not be foolish to choose Billy Wagner. 

The other reason I don’t get the “he didn’t throw enough innings" argument is that the same people who use that reasoning also hold Wagner’s postseason performance against him. Yet even though Wagner appeared in seven separate postseasons, he only threw a combined 10 1/3innings. That is simply not enough of a sample size to make a declaration about one’s performance. The more important thing, in my opinion, is that he was a valuable enough player to be part of seven different playoff teams with four different organizations. 

There’s a lot to marvel about with Wagner’s career, but above all else might be his remarkable consistency. Other than an injury-plagued 2000 campaign, Wagner posted an ERA below 3.00 in every season of his career. He even posted a 1.43 ERA as a 38-year-old in 2010, and might have continued to be an effective late-inning reliever had he not suffered an oblique injury in that year’s playoffs. No matter the team, no matter the role, Wagner delivered year in and year out, and that’s why he will be elected into Cooperstown this January.

6. SP Félix Hernández, Y ear 1

• Current Tracking: 27.7%

In all likelihood, Félix Hernández will not be a Hall of Famer. His 49.7 career WAR ranks just 114th all-time among starting pitchers, surrounded by the likes of Jamie Moyer, Jimmy Key, and Roy Oswalt. His 169 wins are woefully short of Hall of Fame standards, as are most of his other counting statistics. Based on Ryan Thibodeaux’s tracker, Hernández currently sits at just 27.7%, a figure that will likely drop once private ballots are revealed. 

Ten years ago, that sentiment would have been unthinkable. Hernández had just wrapped up a tremendous 2014 season in which he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting, capping a historically dominant seven-year peak. From 2008-2014, Hernández posted a 2.82 ERA while striking out an average of 219 batters per season. He made five All-Star teams, placed in the top five of Cy Young voting four times, and captured the award in 2010. It looked like Hernández just needed a few more solid years to be a Hall of Fame lock, and though he took a step back in 2015, he still threw over 200 innings and finished seventh in Cy Young voting. He took another step back in 2016 with a career-low 1.3 WAR, but that steady drip of decline would turn into a waterfall in 2017. Injuries limited Hernández to just 16 starts in which he posted a 4.36 ERA, his highest in over a decade. That number would explode to 5.55 in 2018, and after posting a 6.40 ERA in an injury-plagued 2019 season, he was out of the league at just 33 years old. 

The fact that Hernández only had around 10 successful seasons may scare off some voters, but based on recent Hall of Fame elections, it really shouldn’t. Take Roy Halladay for example, who was the last starting pitcher elected by the baseball writers. The Doc breezed into the Hall of Fame on his first try with over 90% of the vote, but his numbers are eerily similar to Hernández's:

Player	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	All-Star	ERA Titles	Top-5 CYA	WAR
Roy Halladay	203-105	2,749.1	3.38	1.18	8x	0	6	64.2
Félix Hernández	169-136	2,728.20	3.42	1.2	6x	2	4	49.7

The biggest difference between the two candidates is the win-loss record, but that is hardly Hernández’s fault. While Halladay was supported by great offenses in Philadelphia and Toronto, Hernández was dealt some of the worst offenses in MLB history. It’s also not Hernández ’s fault that Halladay got to boost his candidacy in the postseason while Hernández sat at home every October. The Hall of Fame is entirely an individual honor, and Hernandez was every bit as good as a guy who easily earned induction on the first ballot. 

If there’s one constant to this ballot, it’s that I value a strong peak over a stat compiler. That’s why I voted for Jones, who fell off tremendously after age 30 but was arguably the best center fielder of his era during his prime. That’s why I didn’t vote for Jimmy Rollins, who compiled 2,455 hits but only made three All-Star teams and only had two seasons with a WAR above 5.0. The Hall of Fame should be about greatness, not who could play the longest. Félix Hernández ’s career wasn’t fair. He played out of the national spotlight for a team that never contended. He got terrible run support and had his career ruined by injuries. Yet for nearly a decade, Hernandez ate up more innings and allowed fewer runs than nearly anybody in baseball. All the stuff out of his control doesn’t matter. He is a Hall of Famer.

7. 2B Chase Utley, Year 2

• Last Year: 28.8%
• Current Tracking: 49.2% (+3)

I was a bit surprised when Chase Utley garnered 28% of the vote in his 2024 debut on the Hall of Fame ballot. In my head, I had always considered him a Hall of Very Good player: someone who was durable, consistent, and a key part of some excellent Phillies teams, but never among the true top-tier players in the game. But 28% is a terrific indicator for future Hall of Fame induction, which prompted me to take a deeper look into his case. What I found was a player who never posted gaudy, video-game numbers but who spent nearly a decade as the best second baseman in MLB due to his wide-ranging and dynamic skillset. 

It took a while for Utley to truly grow into his full potential. He didn’t debut until the 2003 season at age 24, and he didn’t get his everyday opportunity until the Phillies traded Placido Polanco in the middle of the 2005 season. Once Utley got the chance to play every day, however, he took off. From 2005-2010, Utley averaged 29 home runs and 101 RBI a season, posted a .301/.388/.535 slash line, made four All-Star teams, and helped the Phillies claim two National League pennants. His 45.5 cumulative WAR during that period was second only to Albert Pujols among MLB position players. 

Yet like many other players on this list, Utley never got the credit he deserved during his playing days. He never hit 50 home runs like his teammate Ryan Howard or stole 40 bases like his double-play partner Jimmy Rollins. The only statistic he consistently led the league in was hit-by-pitches, which helped him post such tremendous on-base percentages. He never won a Gold Glove despite placing seventh all-time in second-base fielding runs, and he never finished higher than seventh in the MVP rating despite four different seasons in the top three in NL WAR.

Sometimes, it takes a little revisionist history to recognize a player’s true greatness, and we can see now that Utley had a Hall-of-Fame-worthy peak. His 49.3 total WAR from his best seven seasons is five higher than the Hall of Fame average for second baseman and ahead of the likes of Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, and Ryan Sandberg. Let’s talk a little bit more about Alomar and Biggio specifically, the only second baseman elected since 2010. Both players are certainly Hall of Fame worthy, and while Utley may not have the longevity of either of them, his rate metrics measure up quite well:

Craig Biggio: 3.7 162-game WAR, 112 OPS+

Roberto Alomar: 4.6 162-game WAR, 116 OPS+

Chase Utley: 5.4 162-game WAR, 117 OPS+

The cruel thing about Utley is that what made him so great during his peak is what ultimately cost him towards the end. Utley played so hard for so many years that his body just started to give out. He was still a productive player and managed to hang on until age 39, but he only played more than 138 games once in his final nine seasons. These injuries, combined with a late start to his career, are the primary reason why he failed to register 2,000 career hits, a traditionally necessary plateau for Hall of Fame induction. Utley may have a hard time winning over the old-school voters who dismiss him because of his lack of hardware and low counting numbers, but one thing that could help is his fantastic postseason resume. The overall slash line (.224/.364/.410) is largely unimpressive, but that total is watered down by his end-of-career stint with the Dodgers. Though Cole Hamels and Howard may get much of the attention for the Phillies 2008 championship run, Utley was every bit as vital, getting on-base at a .391 clip and throwing out the tying run at home plate in the Game 5 clincher.

Though the Phillies failed to repeat as World Series champions the following year, it was by no fault of Utley. He practically willed the series to six games by connecting on five home runs, including a pair of blasts against future Hall of Fame C.C Sabathia in the series opener. Had he got just a little more help from his friends, Utley’s performance would have been remembered as an all-time run rather than just a footnote in the Yankees' 27th World Series title. 

I, on the other hand, am not an old-school voter (Well, I’m not even a voter, but that’s beside the point.) 50 years ago, Utley may have fallen off the ballot after a year or so because he “didn’t have enough hits” or whatever, but we have new measures of greatness now. Whether by WAR or OPS+ or fielding runs, it’s clear that Utley was one of the best keystoners this century, and that should be enough to get him a plaque in Cooperstown.

Under Consideration

2B Dustin Pedroia (Year 1, Current Tracking 13.8%)/David Wright (Year 2, Current Tracking 10.8%)

Sigh. This is going to be tough. I love both of these players, and if things got even slightly different in their careers, we would be talking about them not just as borderline candidates but potentially inner-circle Hall of Famers. Yet even though my vote counts about as much as an NBA in-season tournament trophy, I’m still going to try to be unbiased, and unfortunately, both of these players come up a little bit short.

Let’s start with David Wright. A beloved figure in Mets lore, Wright was a truly gifted hitter during his first nine years with the Mets, batting .302 with a 138 OPS+ from 2005-2013. Those numbers are even more impressive considering the Mets moved to the spacious Citi Field in 2009, which completely neutralized his power: he ran a .533 slugging percentage in the four years before the move, and a .497 mark in the four years after it. Despite the declining of power, there is no denying Wright's talent as a pure hitter. There are, however, questions about his defense. Though he won two Gold Gloves, Fangraphs has his career defensive run value at -8.6, and even in his prime, he alternated above-average seasons with below-average ones. Though I think those numbers may be a little harsh, he was certainly not in the same class as the other premier defensive third baseman of his day, namely the recently-elected Adrian Beltré a nd Scott Rolen. 

Still, Wright was such an excellent hitter that he entered his 30s needing just a couple more All-Star caliber seasons to be in good position for induction. Instead, a case of spinal stenosis limited him to just 211 games from 2014 to 2018 and forced an early retirement at age 35. It was a sad ending to one of the era’s most beloved players, and if his 6.2% debut on the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot was any indication, it likely cost him a shot at the Hall of Fame.

While Wright’s time in a Mets uniform was coming to a disheartening conclusion, another franchise icon was also having his career wrecked by injuries. Going into the 2017 season, Dustin Pedroia already possessed a stacked resume: A Rookie of the Year, an MVP, four All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, and a pair of World Series rings. Though he was now 33, Pedroia was coming off a 5.4 WAR 2016 season in which he posted a .318 batting average that was his highest since 2008. 

It seemed like only a catastrophe could knock Pedroia off the Hall of Fame path, and unfortunately, that is exactly what happened. Attempting to break up a double-play ball, Manny Machado slid hard and high into the second base bag and connected squarely with Pedroia’s knee. The injury would ultimately limit Pedroia to 105 games that season and completely change the trajectory of his career. Surgery to repair the knee in the offseason ultimately proved unsuccessful, and after brief comeback attempts in 2018 and 2018, Pedroia called it a career at just 36 years old. He underwent a knee replacement before he turned 40.

By traditional metrics, neither Wright nor Pedroia is close to meeting the standard. Both have less than 2,000 hits, both played around 1,500 games, and both have career WARs that are well below the average at their positions. Yet because each of their careers was cut short not by poor performance but by freak injuries, I am willing to overlook their premature exits if their peaks were Hall-of-Fame worthy.

Let’s once again look at Wright first. He had what I would quantify as three Hall-of-Fame caliber seasons: An 8.3 WAR performance in 2007 where he batted .325 and finished fourth in the MVP, a 6.9 WAR performance in 2008 in which he drove in 124 and hit a career-high 33 home runs, and a 7.1 WAR performance in 2012 in which he posted a 144 OPS+ finished sixth in the MVP. In between, however, was a three-year stretch in which he totaled just 8.1 WAR. Because of this, in addition to some good-not-great seasons to kick off his career, Wright’s seven-year peak WAR of 39.5 is only 23rd all-time among third basemen, trailing the likes of Evan Longoria, Josh Donaldson, Sal Bando, and Graig Nettles. 

The story is similar with Pedroia, who also had three seasons that stand out above the rest. There was his 7.0 WAR MVP season in 2008, his 8.0 WAR 2011 campaign in which he hit 21 home runs with a career 131 OPS+, and his 6.1 WAR 2013 season in which he led the league in at-bats and hit over .300. Though he had a number of other All-Star caliber seasons, a combination of untimely injuries and OPS+ hovering around 110 kept him from running up the WAR count. Though his total of 41.0 is higher than Wright and fairly close to the second-base Hall-of-Fame average, it would still be the lowest peak of any elected second baseman in the last 50 years. This here lies the distinction between Félix Hernández and Pedroia and Wright. Hernández might have fallen off even earlier, but he had at least five seasons as a top-five pitcher in baseball. Wright and Pedroia each had a few special campaigns, but not enough for me to overlook the shortcomings later in their career. Maybe I will re-evaluate next year, but for now, they are on the outside looking in.

OF Bobby Abreu, 6th Year

• Last Year: 14.8%
• Current Tracking: 23.1% (+2)

Bobby Abreu has become an analytical darling as his candidacy has picked up steam. There’s a lot to like about his career, from 13 consecutive seasons with at least 150 games played to a .395 career on-base percentage to a 128 OPS+ that is higher than inner-circle Hall of Famers Rickey Henderson and Johnny Bench. His 60.2 WAR, meanwhile, sits smack in between Cooperstown right fielders Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero, proving that his case is one that we should take seriously. 

With all that being said, there is one number that I can’t seem to get out of my head: Zero. That’s how many times Abreu finished in the top-10 MVP in his league. Now, I do think that number can be a bit misleading, as award voters often can’t seem to get out of their own way. Take 2004, for example, when Abreu slashed a terrific .301/.428/.544 with 30 home runs and 40 stolen bases but finished just 23rd NL MVP voting. Hell, he even finished behind Steve Finley, who had an OPS over 150 points lower than him. Even if Abreu, like Utley and Beltran, deserved better from the voters, I do think the MVP results indicate that he was closer to being a very good player than a Hall of Famer. Besides working walks, Abreu wasn’t exceptional at anything. He topped 20 home runs nine times but never finished inside the ten. He drove in more than  100 runs eight times but never finished inside the top eight.  He hit over .300 six times but only finished in the top ten in the league once. He stole over 30 bases six times but only finished in the top five twice.  

As much as I appreciate stats, there has to be a human element to Hall of Fame voting. An important question to ask is whether the people who watched Abreu play believed they were watching a Hall of Famer. We already discussed the MVP voting, but Abreu also only made two All-Star teams in his career and only took home one Silver Slugger. Even more startling is that he did all that while playing the vast majority of his career in major markets like Philadelphia, New York, and Los Angeles. He got plenty of time in the spotlight, and the consensus from those who saw him most was that he wasn’t a Hall of Famer.

SS Jimmy Rollins, 4th Year

• Last Year: 14.8%
• This Year: 16.9% (+5)

Jimmy Rollins came awfully close to earning one of my votes. He fits many of the criteria I look for in a Hall of Famer: Durability, a strong peak, an MVP award, and excellent defense and baserunning. The big question for me with Rollins is whether he was simply a very good player or a Hall of Famer, and besides his 2007 season, I would argue that Rollins was never one of the league’s truly elite players. Let’s dive a little more into that 2007 season because it was truly exceptional. Rollins played in all 162 games, registering 20 triples, 30 home runs, 41 stolen bases, a .296 batting average, and a .875 OPS. Phenomenal. If Rollins put together three or four seasons like that, he would probably be a Hall of Famer. Unfortunately, he never reached those heights again. His next highest OPS total was a .811 mark the previous year, and he failed to reach the six-win plateau again. 2007 was also the only year he finished even inside the top 10 in MVP, a reflection that during his playing days, he wasn’t thought of as one of the best players in baseball. 

While Rollins captured three Gold Gloves and stole over 400 bases, his offensive production is what ultimately holds me back. He has a career 95 OPS+ and was only an above-average hitter in 5 of his 17 seasons. He didn’t hit for high averages, rarely walked, and only possessed moderate power. It takes a certain level of defensive wizardry to make up for such offensive inefficiency, and I don’t believe Rollins meets the threshold of a Brooks Robinson or an Ozzie Smith.

Though WAR is not the be-all, end-all, it is pretty jarring to see the story it paints for Rollins. His career 47.6 WAR is over 20 points lower than the average Hall of Fame shortstop and would be the lowest of any live-ball Hall of Famer besides Phil Rizzuto. His 32.6 WAR, meanwhile, would be behind every live-ball Hall-of-Fame shortstop and trails even Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. I can keep throwing more and more numbers at you, but they all tell the same story. Rollins was a very good player with one legendary season, but the Hall of Fame is and always should be for the best of the best. Rollins just doesn’t meet that criteria.

SP Andy Pettitte, Year 7

• Last Year: 13.5%
• This Year: 33.8% (+10)

While more and more deserving players are finally getting their Cooperstown due, there is still a noticeable lack of starting pitchers elected this century. Among starting pitchers who pitched the majority of their career in the 2000s, only Pedro Martinez and Halladay have been elected to Cooperstown (though Sabathia will soon be joining them). On the other hand, there have been 11 different Hall-of-Fame hitters elected in the last decade to play most of their career this century. So yes, we need more Hall of Fame starting pitchers from this era, and Pettitte doesn’t necessarily have a bad case. He was an integral part of five championship teams and was one of the best big-game pitchers of his era. He was effective and durable despite pitching nearly all of his career in the steroid era and in the American League East, which helped him compile 256 career wins. That total would be the most of any non Hall-of-Fame live-ball pitcher besides Roger Clemens, whose chances were ruined by steroid use, and Jamie Moyer and Tommy John, who only reached that total because they pitched forever. 

Twenty-five years ago, that might have been enough to get Pettitte elected. But this is a different era of player evaluation, and since I didn’t penalize Félix Hernández for his low win total because he played for lousy offenses, I can’t reward Pettitte too much for benefiting from some historically great Yankees teams. Run prevention is a far more important attribute, and Pettitte simply wasn’t that good at it. Only twice in his career did he make at least 25 starts while posting an ERA below 3.50, and he never finished inside the top five in strikeouts. Yes, he did finish inside the top five in Cy-Young voting four times, but that was mainly due to his gaudy win totals, as voters were not as analytically minded as they are today.

To be a Hall of Fame pitcher, you need to be consistently be among the best, if not the best, pitchers in the league. Not only was Pettitte rarely among the best pitchers in his league, but he was rarely the best pitcher on his own team. Whether it be because of Mike Mussina, Clemens, or Sabathia, there's a reason that Pettitte was always starting Games 2 and 3 rather than Game 1. At the end of the day, I would much rather vote for a pitcher like Johan Santana or Felix Hernandez, who had a short period of absolute brilliance, than a pitcher like Andy Pettitte, who only had three five-win seasons.

RP Francisco Rodríguez, Year 3

• Last Year: 7.8%
• Current Tracking: 12.3% (+1)

By this point of the article, you should realize that I love statistics. WAR, OPS+, ERA+/-, I’ll take ‘em all. But I am not a robot. There is a human element in baseball, and players can’t be defined solely by a set of numbers. A big question I always like to ask is Did this player FEEL like a Hall of Famer? So with that in mind, let’s dive into Francisco Rodríguez.

I’ll be honest, I was surprised at how impressive Rodríguez Rodriguez’s resume is. He led the league in saves three times, including a record 62 in 2008, and finished with a total of 437. He earned five All-Star selections with three different teams, and finished in the top five in Cy Young voting three times. He was also extremely consistent: From 2004-2016, he appeared in at least 60 games 11 times and finished with a sub-3.00 ERA nine times. There is no question that K-Rod was a very good closer. But Hall of Fame? I don’t know about that. He is clearly a level below Hoffman and Rivera, and he wasn’t nearly as dominant as Wagner. The pitcher he reminds me the most of is actually Joe Nathan, who fell off the ballot after just one year:

Player	SV	ERA	IP	WAR
Francisco Rodríguez	437	2.9	967	26.4
Joe Nathan	377	2.85	923	24.2

Now, is there an argument to be made that Nathan should have stayed on the ballot longer? Absolutely. But I think the lack of support for each closer speaks to the general vibe surrounding their career. When Hoffman and Rivera entered the game, it felt like the game was over. It felt like you were witnessing one of the greatest closers to ever live. With Nathan and Rodríguez, it never felt like that. Both of them felt human, and besides a few anomaly seasons, neither were ever as dominant as Hoffman, Rivera, or Wagner.  Is this a dumb argument? Maybe. The threshold for Hall of Fame closers has changed so much over time that it might be the most subjective position in Hall of Fame discourse. It’s also a very fluid position. K-Rod should be on the ballot for at least a  couple more years, and I am more than happy to re-evaluate once Wagner gets his due.

Quick Hits On Other Notable Players

3B Alex Rodriguez, Year 4  (Current Tracking: 46.2%)/ OF Manny Ramirez, Year 9 (Current Tracking: 44.6%)

Despite Bonds and Clemens leaving the ballot, we are unfortunately not done with the steroid issue. Both Rodriguez and Ramirez have been slowly trudging their way up the ballot, topping out at around 30% in 2024. Each player is likely a long shot to be elected by the writers, but they have garnered enough support that their candidacy must be taken seriously. 

Every baseball fan has their own way of tackling the unanswerable steroid issue, and my belief has always been that players who were suspended for PED use should be ineligible for the Hall of Fame. It’s one thing to take steroids during the Wild West days of the 1990s, but it’s a whole separate problem when you get busted after the MLB put rules in place. Seeing that both A-Rod and Manny were suspended multiple times despite playing most of their careers prior to the Mitchell Report, and that both Bonds and Clemens failed to get elected despite never getting suspended, I can’t consider them for the Hall of Fame.

OF Torii Hunter, Year 5

• Last Year: 7.3%
• Current Tracking: 0%

The statistics do a disservice to how awesome of a career Torii Hunter had. In his prime, Hunter was a spectacular defender and a legitimate power threat for some really good Angels, Twins, and Tigers teams. The issue is that he never had a season with over 6.0 WAR, possesses a mediocre 110 career  OPS+, and failed to ever finish inside the top 15 in MVP voting. That’s not a Hall of Famer.

SP Mark Buehrle, Year 6

• Last Year: 8.3%
• Current Tracking: 9.2% (+3)

Mark Buehrle is a lot like Pettitte, but without the postseason resume. He was almost unfathomably durable, with 14 straight innings with 200 innings pitched, and was also one of the best defensive pitchers ever. Those innings, however, were a little too close to average for my liking, and he only received Cy Young votes in one season.

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