Article: A Winning Pitch to Juan Soto

[Daniel Fox]

What can the Red Sox offer to Juan Soto that none of their competitors can match?

Let me preface this by saying that I do not expect the Red Sox to win the Juan Soto sweepstakes. As much as we hate to admit it, money almost always wins in free agency, and the Red Sox simply don’t have the financial firepower to compete with an all-in Steve Cohen. If Soto’s decision comes down entirely to dollars and cents, there’s a good chance that the superstar right-fielder will wear a Mets uniform come Opening Day.

But let’s say for the sake of this exercise that the Red Sox are able to match the Mets’ offer. Maybe the Fenway Sports Group has more muscle than they are letting on. Maybe the Mets are more focused on improving a depleted pitching staff and don’t want to throw $700 million at one player. How can the Red Sox lure Soto away from Cohen’s squad, as well as the incumbent Yankees, the super-team Dodgers, and any other potential competitors?

Though there are reportedly eight or so teams in on Soto, several should not be taken seriously. The Phillies are headed for financial disaster with massive amounts of money tied up in aging stars Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, and Bryce Harper. The Giants have yet to sign a marquee free agent despite being in on practically every big name of the last decade, and I doubt Soto wants to spend the rest of his career in one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly parks. And though there are some rumblings that the Rays may be interested in a meeting, they are probably too preoccupied dealing with their stadium situation to dish out their first free-agent deal worth over $50 million.

That leaves us with five teams: The Mets, the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Blue Jays. Let’s start with the easiest one. Jon Heyman can talk all he wants about the Blue Jays being all-in on Soto, but this doesn’t pass the sniff test. They are coming off a 74-win season, have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and are in danger of losing franchise icon Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to free agency. The Blue Jays are a team in free-fall, and I can’t imagine Soto choosing such a dysfunctional organization over the other options he will have at his fingertips.

The appeal with the Dodgers, on the other hand, could not be more obvious. The defending champions can pitch Soto on being part of one of the greatest MLB teams of all time. With Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts batting in front of him and Freddie Freeman behind him, Soto would get even more pitches to hit than he did when he teamed up with Aaron Judge this last season. The Dodgers have also shown they are not afraid of dishing out a big contract, and Ohtani’s deferrals should theoretically allow them plenty of room for Soto.

But is that really what Soto wants? It’s hard to imagine a player who thrives in the spotlight committing to spending his entire career in the shadow of the greatest player who ever lived. As long as Ohtani is around, Soto will never be the face of the franchise.  He might not even get to be second fiddle, as Freeman and Betts are also beloved future Hall-of-Famers who helped lead the Dodgers to a World Series title. Should Soto commit to Los Angeles, he would just be another star in a galaxy full of them.

This is where the Red Sox can draw the contrast. Though they might not have the same level of talent as the Dodgers (nobody does), they can offer Soto the opportunity to be the centerpiece of an emerging young core. The mantle of clubhouse leader is wide open in Boston. Rafael Devers does not seem interested in it and Trevor Story has not played enough over his first three seasons to warrant such a title. The Red Sox would immediately become Soto’s team, and he could help shape the next decade of one of the most historic franchises in baseball.

Let’s move on to the Yankees, who have seemed to be losing steam in the Soto chase. To state the obvious, there is no team more desperate than the Bronx Bombers. They made the risky choice to send a huge package to San Diego for Soto’s services, a decision made even more bittersweet by Michael King’s emergence as a frontline starter. The Yankees did not pay such a hefty price for Soto to leave after one season, and you only have to look at their remarkable 2024 turnaround to see how much he meant to the team.

Here’s the hard truth about the Yankees, however: Their future just isn’t that promising. Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton are all on the wrong side of 30 and eating up massive salaries, and the farm system doesn’t appear to be offering much relief. With Spencer Jones having a 200-strikeout season in Double A, the Yankees farm system has fallen to 18th in MLB.com’s August rankings, and only Jasson Dominguez is ranked inside the top 100.

Now, I’m sure Yankees fans will push back about Rookie of the Year Luis Gil and promising young players Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and Clarke Schmidt, but each of those players has warts that cap their upside. Gil has had significant control issues at every level, Schmidt has yet to have a healthy, above-average season in the rotation, Wells' performance cratered in the second half of last season, and Volpe has a .661 OPS through two major league seasons. None of this is to say that these guys can’t be productive major league players, but they all fall into the bucket of supporting players rather than co-stars.

We know from multiple reports that Soto has been asking teams about their farm systems and the direction of the franchise. While the Red Sox may not have Aaron Judge, they can simply blow the Yankees out of the water with their minor leaguers. In Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Kyle Teel, and Marcelo Mayer, the Red Sox have four of the top 25 prospects in baseball sitting at Triple A. Once those players get the call to the show, they will join an emerging young core of Triston Casas, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, and Jarren Duran. Even if all of those players don’t reach their 99th percentile potential (which they won’t), the Red Sox can point to this collection of talent as the supporting cast for Juan Soto for the next decade.

Of course, the Yankees have a pretty good player of their own in Aaron Judge, and there is no doubt that Soto would love to continue batting in front of him for the rest of his prime. But remember what I said about Soto being overshadowed with the Dodgers? The same logic not only applies here, but given that Judge has been with the Yankees for nine seasons and was given the honor of captain, it might be more prominent. Soto will undoubtedly be beloved by Yankees fans, but he will never be the face of the franchise and he will never be the loudest voice in the clubhouse. It’s an ego play, but it’s one the Red Sox are in a position to make.

Finally, let’s move on to the Mets, the team I consider to be the biggest threat in the Soto sweepstakes. Everything is set up for them: They have the money, they have the market, and, after a run to the NLCS, they have the momentum. They are the odds-on favorite, and anyone suggesting otherwise is kidding themselves.

On the other hand…come on. These are the Mets! An organization defined for so many years by dysfunction and incompetence that – aside from a miracle run in 1969 and the lightning-in-a-bottle 1986 team – has treated its fans to one heartbreak in another. They are and always have been the little brother, cursed to a lifetime in the shadow of the more popular Yankees. Does Cohen’s wallet and one magical run to the NLCS change that?

This is where the Red Sox make their final argument, and it’s a sappy one. They need to sell Soto on the Red Sox franchise in itself. The history, the city, the fans, everything. Sell Soto on playing the same outfield that Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski once patrolled, on stepping in the same batter’s box as his childhood idol David Ortiz. With the exception of those Gooden-Strawberry years, the Mets have never been the center of the baseball universe. The Red Sox were, and with Soto, they can get back there again.

Let’s go back to Big Papi for a second. Not only can he remind Soto of the team’s rich Dominican history, ranging from Pedro Martinez to Manny Ramirez to Rafael Devers, but he can be an example of how a left-hander can succeed at Fenway. Whether it be a slap hitter like Wade Boggs or a slugger like Carl Yastrzemski, the best left-handed hitters in Red Sox history have succeeded by using the entire field and peppering balls off and over the Green Monster. No hitter in the modern game fits that description more than Soto. Just look at his spray chart:

While it is true that Soto will lose some right-field home runs by shifting from Yankee Stadium to Fenway Park, so many of those blue dots in left and left-center can change into black ones. After spending a season aiming for the short porch, Soto can get back to his natural tendency to hit the ball where it’s pitched. Contrast that to Citi Field, which ranks 22nd in Statcast’s Park Factor and 27th for left-handed batters. Steve Cohen may be able to buy a super-team, but he can’t create a ballpark that is as tailored to Soto’s strengths as Fenway.

So there it is: the case for Juan Soto. Again, there is a non-zero chance that none of this matters, that Soto will just roll with the team that offers him the most money. But if the Red Sox are serious about meeting the moment for a once-in-a-generation player, there are real factors working in their favor. If they can sell Soto on the opportunity to be a leader, the future of the organization, the ballpark suited to his strengths, and the historic nature of the franchise, there is a real chance Soto will be the franchise-altering star they have been searching for.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Sorry, there was an error in the previous piece and the only way to fix it was to delete the old post. Sorry for the loss of comments.