Where do the Red Sox need to be in the Standings on 9/1 to have a legit shot at title

[MANNYHOF24]

So the Red Sox are currently 48-45... Between now and september first the sox have 39 games. They currently sit 1 game out of the final wild card spot, 2 games behind the angels for home field advantage in the 1 game playoff, and 9.5 games behind the Yankees.

 

 

I personally think the divison is out of reach at this point as the schedule is just too dificult to make up 9.5 games with only 69 to play. I think the Red Sox really need to shoot for that first wild card spot currently held by the angels.

 

I think sox need to win about 60% of their games between now and september to put them in a good positon to do so. Say the Red Sox go 24-15 in that stretch. That would put them at 72- 60. That will definitely put them in the mix for the first spot in that wild card race. In order to have any shot at the divison title, they probably would have to play .750 ball between now and september to even be within any kind of striking distance to catch the Yankees. That would put the Red Sox record at 78-54. The Yankees curently sit at 57-35. Say the Yankees played .600 over the next 39 games that would put them at 81- 50. 3.5 GB.

 

Can the Red Sox play .750 with this schedule? I don't think so. I think they can play .600 though.

[Laser Show]

.750 is unbelievable baseball. Last year, between a 2-10 start and 8-21 finish (10-31) we went 80-41, or about .660. I can't imagine this team outperforming last years, especially with struggling SP.

 

.625-.650 is possible, and would net us a WC. I have no hopes of catching the Yankees, they are playing lights out, but a WC spot should come easy if our starters can pitch to their career averages the rest of the way.

[SoxSport]

Tough to say this year because everybody is so bunched together. Whatever team gets hot down the stretch has the advantage. The Sox have a good shot because they are getting their troops back, and are in a position to improve themselves with deals. Things have to get better for them the 2nd half.

[jung]

The only shot the Sox have at the division is to play lights out and have the Yanks collapse. The Sox can't get there even playing lights out ball unless the Yanks collapse. I don't see that happening.

 

However I do not think either the Yanks or the Sox are very well situated for post season play. The Yanks had the pitching but have suffered injuries to pitchers. The Sox don't have pitching to begin with. So as staunch as the Yanks have been so far in the regular season they may not fair that well in the post season either.

 

The Sox could get that first WC but must pitch better even to get that I think. A Garza or Dempster kind of arm may just be enough. Second half baseball generally offers up more tighter, close games though and that is not a Sox strong suit. No dinger last night and the Sox would have lost that game as well as they simply cannot get a run by any other means than brute forcing it home. Painful to watch but true none the less.

 

So, I think they can get into the WC if they pitch better and play something between 600 and 650 ball. Once there though they will be forced to use their best pitcher to try to win the one game play in I fear and that will likely kill them in the short series that would follow.

 

Remember all that talk about how early it was when they were losing games to s***** teams that they should have been beating with ease regardless of the injuries? Got late awfully fast didn't it?

[MANNYHOF24]

Say the Red Sox got Garza, and Lester and Beckett turned it around... I don't think using Lester, Beckett or Buchholz in the WC play in game would kill us in a short series... especially since the format this year is WC winner gets games 1 and 2 at home followed by 3 at the divisonal leaders.

 

Also remember, we can play a divisonal team in the first round this year, so it is very possible that we could see the NYY in the first round, with the way things are lining up.

[jung]

Unfortunately I don't see Beckett and Lester turning it around. I would bet that at best Beckett remains inconsistent for the remainder of the season while missing at least one and possibly two turns in the rotation.

 

Lester has so many mechanical issues plaguing him that even talking about him turning it around mid season this season is simply not realistic. It is so bad at this point that if he comes out again and cannot even find parts of the plate while not even being able to get squared up, they may have to shut him down. If he actually throws again like he threw in the last start he could actually hurt himself and I am not trying to be facetious.

 

If that happens, they need another starter and guys that are really supposed to be back of the rotation guys are going to have to step up like they are front of the rotation guys.

 

If the season ended today and the Sox had to win one game, Buch would in my view be the choice. If they got in to a short series, they would be stuck with Beckett and pray for rain.

[lospunchados]

It's obvious everyone is missing the easy way. Just go 12-0 against the Yankees to finish out the year. Boom, division

[redsoxbeatz]

If Red Sox get that 2nd WC and play the single game playoff... we gotta put Buchholz out there.

 

How we get there? Win a lot.

[kapsis21]

It's obvious everyone is missing the easy way. Just go 12-0 against the Yankees to finish out the year. Boom' date=' division [/quote']

 

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

 

i will be happy with 10-2

[SouthieFanatic]

They need to go at least 23-16 to stay on pace with the wild card.. Hopefully something more like 29-10