8/27 Vs A's and Irene Game 2

[BornToRun]

I'm sure you guys think you're hilarious, I really do. Has his ERA been pretty? No. Has he stayed in games and given us a chance to win without blowing up? Yes. The guy's not what we were hoping for when we signed him, I'll grant you though, but in the 2nd half of the season he's hung in there and kept is in the game and given the offense a chance to win. He's not great but he hasn't cost us any games in a while.

[a700hitter]

We lost power 8 am this morning, and they say it will be 2-6 days to restore power. Damn!

[Flynnatic10]

That sucks a700hitter.

[yankees228]

I'm sure you guys think you're hilarious' date=' I really do. Has his ERA been pretty? No. Has he stayed in games and given us a chance to win without blowing up? Yes. The guy's not what we were hoping for when we signed him, I'll grant you though, but in the 2nd half of the season he's hung in there and kept is in the game and given the offense a chance to win. He's not great but he hasn't cost us any games in a while.[/quote']

 

When your argument is that he hasn't singlehandedly cost his team any games lately you have to realize that you're not working with too much. Since the ASB he has consistently performed below average. Once he reaches enough innings to qualify he'll rank last in all of baseball in ERA, likely by a pretty wide margin. That sounds like the resume of a pitcher I would consider to be an 'issue'.

[BornToRun]

Thinking back, only three games come to mind where I think you can accurately say he pitched poorly. He got rocked by Toronto, he had a rough go of it against Cleveland (HR's hurt him), and his most recent start against Seattle. He shut out Baltimore and Seattle (different start), he pitched 6 2/3 of 3 ER ball against Tampa, handled the Yankees to the tune of a very solid 3 ER in 6 innings on 6 hits, and just recently went 6 2/3 giving up 4 on the road against a Texas team that not only has a habit of kicking his ass, but is also one of the most explosive offenses in the whole game of baseball. I have no worries when Lackey toes the rubber, he's gonna give us some innings and he's going to keep us in the game. Do I hope he does better in the future? Yeah, of course I do but what he's doing right now is completely fine for a back of the rotation starter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

When your argument is that he hasn't singlehandedly cost his team any games lately you have to realize that you're not working with too much. Since the ASB he has consistently performed below average. Once he reaches enough innings to qualify he'll rank last in all of baseball in ERA' date=' likely by a pretty wide margin. That sounds like the resume of a pitcher I would consider to be an 'issue'.[/quote']

 

In his past 9 starts, he's gone 7-1 with a 4.11 ERA. He laid one egg against CLE, but other than that, has thrown well. He went 6+ IP in 7 of his 9 starts, and both times he missed 6 IP, he went 5.2. Take out his bad game vs CLE, and he's 7-1 with a 3.76 ERA in 8 of his past 9 starts. And the biggest thing is that he's thrown relatively well against potential post season opponents.

 

Against the Yankees, he went 6 IP, 3 ER. Against the Rangers he went 6.2 IP, 4 ER. He's not going to be an ace, he's just not. So from your #3 or #4 pitcher, you really can't complain with a 7-1, 4.11 ERA over 9 starts including against post season opponents that have two of the best offenses in the game.

 

You gotta remember, when he's throwing in the post season, he's not going to be throwing against CJ Wilson or CC Sabathia or Justin Verlander. He's going to be throwing against Matt Harrison, Freddy Garcia, and Brad Penny. He absolutely has been pitching well enough to keep us in games against those pitchers.

[BornToRun]

Thank you SFF, arguments are never fun when you're the only guy on your own side.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Thank you SFF' date=' arguments are never fun when you're the only guy on your own side. [/quote']

 

Haha no problem man. It seems like people are destined to call him a bust regardless of how well he's throwing right now. Unless he throws to Justin Verlander-esque numbers, he's going to get dogged. He's never going to be that pitcher. He's going to be a 6-7 IP per outing, 2-4 ER per outing pitcher. He's going to be a 3.9 - 4.2 ERA pitcher, which is exactly what he's done since the ASB, but people have expectations that exceed him. Has he had a terrible season? Of course. But who cares what he did in April and May? All I care about is what he does now, and over his past 9 starts, he's trending toward his typical numbers, which eats innings and keeps the Sox in the games. WIth the offense we're toting this year, that's going to win a lot of games.

[BornToRun]

You could say he's underchieved given how much he's being paid but saying bust is not only premature, it's just plain wrong. He has 3 more years to pitch for us and also, he's a solid 4-5 guy right now and I'll gladly take that from him. A bust is someone who contributes nothing to the team, who is just so much of a dud that you can't really justify the signing or trade. Dice K is a bust. Lackey, and Drew you could say as well, haven't been what we paid for but they've contributed to this team. Just because a guy is overpaid, it doesn't mean he sucks. Lackey was okay last year, a lot better than most give him credit for and despite sucking the first half this year, he's turned around and is pitching quite well as of late. With Buchholz blowing through rehab, can you picture a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buch, Bedard, and Lackey? It'd be unreal.

[Emmz]

In his past 9 starts, he's gone 7-1 with a 4.11 ERA. He laid one egg against CLE, but other than that, has thrown well. He went 6+ IP in 7 of his 9 starts, and both times he missed 6 IP, he went 5.2. Take out his bad game vs CLE, and he's 7-1 with a 3.76 ERA in 8 of his past 9 starts. And the biggest thing is that he's thrown relatively well against potential post season opponents.

 

Against the Yankees, he went 6 IP, 3 ER. Against the Rangers he went 6.2 IP, 4 ER. He's not going to be an ace, he's just not. So from your #3 or #4 pitcher, you really can't complain with a 7-1, 4.11 ERA over 9 starts including against post season opponents that have two of the best offenses in the game.

 

You gotta remember, when he's throwing in the post season, he's not going to be throwing against CJ Wilson or CC Sabathia or Justin Verlander. He's going to be throwing against Matt Harrison, Freddy Garcia, and Brad Penny. He absolutely has been pitching well enough to keep us in games against those pitchers.

 

I'll take that. An ERA a little above 4 beats the hell of an ERA a little under 10, which is what he was pitching like for a couple of months there.

 

I don't think he's pitching too great right now even, but he's not pitching all that poorly, and I'll take this sign of life. I'm still not ready to call him a bust. Last year he got s*** on despite basically earning his salary in WAR, and putting it together late in the season. Now he got s*** on legit this year, overall there is not an excuse for this performance, but he's at least putting it together. I won't lie though, he really needs to put it together for a full season next year, it's starting to get frustrating, and defending him is going to get harder unless he pulls out some career norm type years, instead of career norm months.

[Emmz]

You could say he's underchieved given how much he's being paid but saying bust is not only premature' date=' it's just plain wrong. He has 3 more years to pitch for us and also, he's a solid 4-5 guy right now and I'll gladly take that from him. A bust is someone who contributes nothing to the team, who is just so much of a dud that you can't really justify the signing or trade. Dice K is a bust. Lackey, and Drew you could say as well, haven't been what we paid for but they've contributed to this team. Just because a guy is overpaid, it doesn't mean he sucks. Lackey was okay last year, a lot better than most give him credit for and despite sucking the first half this year, he's turned around and is pitching quite well as of late. With Buchholz blowing through rehab, can you picture a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buch, Bedard, and Lackey? It'd be unreal.[/quote']

 

Well Drew has earned more of his money than Lackey is on pace to, but Drew had that dreadful first year. Ofc, Drew turned it up in the second year, and followed that with an even better 3rd year, followed by one more very solid year. He sucks now, but essentially JD Drew gave us what we asked for overall, I'm not disappointed. I think Lackey will do the same, but as I said in the last post, he needs to come through from start to finish, and give us career norms. If he pulls another one of those sucky first half, good second half things, he will be considered a bust in a couple of years.

[BornToRun]

Next year I bet. 2010, first few months he was getting used to the AL East and struggled a bit. The second half he had gotten used to it and put up numbers near what he usually does, albeit a tad inflated from said AL East lineups. This year he sucked out of the gate. He messed around because I'm thinking he realized he couldn't work the same way he used to anymore and modified himself as a pitcher and the results are starting to show. I think in 2012 we'll see that version of Lackey with more polish and he'll put up a good season, my guess is an ERA around anywhere between 4-4.30.

[Palodios]

You gotta remember' date=' when he's throwing in the post season, he's not going to be throwing against CJ Wilson or CC Sabathia or Justin Verlander. He's going to be throwing against Matt Harrison, Freddy Garcia, and Brad Penny. He absolutely has been pitching well enough to keep us in games against those pitchers.[/quote']

 

I agree with pretty much everything that you've said about Lackey, except for this. Bedard's knee is acting up again, and I wouldn't put it past him to be completely out of the picture by the time October rolls around. That means Lackey could be facing Ervin Santana, Cole Hamels, Bartolo Colon or Max Scherer.

[BornToRun]

I heard Clay is making all kinds of progress with his rehab though, maybe we won't wind up needing Lackey to pitch those games.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I agree with pretty much everything that you've said about Lackey' date=' except for this. Bedard's knee is acting up again, and I wouldn't put it past him to be completely out of the picture by the time October rolls around. That means Lackey could be facing Ervin Santana, Cole Hamels, Bartolo Colon or Max Scherer.[/quote']

 

Well still, that's a significant difference than CC, Weaver, Wilson, or Halladay. I think Colon will be the Yankees #2 starter in the PS, but even if he is 3, he has been awful in the 2nd half, posting a 4.68 ERA thus far. He lasted 4.2 IP last time he faced the Sox, and gave up 2 ER. We had him on the ropes multiple times, though, but let him get away. Scherzer we've hammered, and same thing with Santana.

 

Basically, what I'm saying is that if Lackey throws like he has been recently, even against guys like Colon, Santana, or Scherzer, he's going to keep us right in the game and you're going to look up in the 7th or 8th inning and know that you're either winning, or are right there in the game.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I heard Clay is making all kinds of progress with his rehab though' date=' maybe we won't wind up needing Lackey to pitch those games.[/quote']

 

From what I've heard, he could be cleared to begin a throwing program on 9/1. If that's the case, say about 10 days of throwing program. Get on a mound and throw 3 times. That will put him at least available for the bullpen by the post season. If we can use him in the pen in the ALDS, we can have him stretched out for the ALCS.

[Palodios]

Well still, that's a significant difference than CC, Weaver, Wilson, or Halladay. I think Colon will be the Yankees #2 starter in the PS, but even if he is 3, he has been awful in the 2nd half, posting a 4.68 ERA thus far. He lasted 4.2 IP last time he faced the Sox, and gave up 2 ER. We had him on the ropes multiple times, though, but let him get away. Scherzer we've hammered, and same thing with Santana.

 

Basically, what I'm saying is that if Lackey throws like he has been recently, even against guys like Colon, Santana, or Scherzer, he's going to keep us right in the game and you're going to look up in the 7th or 8th inning and know that you're either winning, or are right there in the game.

 

Bartolo Colon has a 3.00 ERA against the Red Sox this year, with a .222 BAA, and 1.20 WHIP. That's a lot better than Lackey has been against the Yankees. I'm also a little afraid that Colon may need "medical attention" in the DR again before the playoffs.

 

You also didn't mention Hamels. In all reality, Lackey will pitch against Fister/Scherzer, then Colon/Nova, then Hamels/Oswalt. Lackey fits as a #4 starter, but some of those #3s concern me, especially Hamels without a DH.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bartolo Colon has a 3.00 ERA against the Red Sox this year, with a .222 BAA, and 1.20 WHIP. That's a lot better than Lackey has been against the Yankees. I'm also a little afraid that Colon may need "medical attention" in the DR again before the playoffs.

 

You also didn't mention Hamels. In all reality, Lackey will pitch against Fister/Scherzer, then Colon/Nova, then Hamels/Oswalt. Lackey fits as a #4 starter, but some of those #3s concern me, especially Hamels without a DH.

 

Well I didn't mention Hamels because it doesn't matter if you throw Bedard or Lackey, we're at a severe disadvantage. The only way we could potentially match up #3 with #3 against the Phils is if Buchholz comes back, which is entirely possible for him to return by late October if he starts a rehab program on September 1.

[Palodios]

From what I've heard' date=' he could be cleared to begin a throwing program on 9/1. If that's the case, say about 10 days of throwing program. Get on a mound and throw 3 times. That will put him at least available for the bullpen by the post season. If we can use him in the pen in the ALDS, we can have him stretched out for the ALCS.[/quote']

 

Buchholz hasn't pitched a game since June 16th, and the minor leagues finish up in a few days. There isn't going to be any way to give him a rehab start besides in simulated games. I would bet that this organization is more concerned with getting him healthy than putting him in to pitch in the playoffs after four months off.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Buchholz hasn't pitched a game since June 16th' date=' and the minor leagues finish up in a few days. There isn't going to be any way to give him a rehab start besides in simulated games. I would bet that this organization is more concerned with getting him healthy than putting him in to pitch in the playoffs after four months off.[/quote']

 

First off, simulated games are at least worth something. Just because he's not facing a live game situation doesn't mean that it's a worthless effort.

 

Second, what they should do is get his arm ready and put him in the bullpen for the ALDS, let him face some live offenses, and then see if he's ready to start for the ALCS. If not, put him in the bullpen again, let him see some offenses some more, and then he'd probably be about ready to go by the WS.

 

You say "after four months off", but that's completely misleading. If he begins a throwing program on September 1, which is what he's planning on doing, then you've got 2.5 months off, followed by 1 month of a throwing program/sim games, followed by 1-2 weeks of bullpen, getting back to being used to live pitching, and then by mid to late October, he's ready to go out and give you 85-90 pitches. That's good for 5-6 innings, and then you can piggy back him with Aceves.

 

Either way you look at it, Buchholz 5 IP + Aceves 2 IP >>> Lackey/Bedard 7 IP.

[Palodios]

First off, simulated games are at least worth something. Just because he's not facing a live game situation doesn't mean that it's a worthless effort.

 

Second, what they should do is get his arm ready and put him in the bullpen for the ALDS, let him face some live offenses, and then see if he's ready to start for the ALCS. If not, put him in the bullpen again, let him see some offenses some more, and then he'd probably be about ready to go by the WS.

 

You say "after four months off", but that's completely misleading. If he begins a throwing program on September 1, which is what he's planning on doing, then you've got 2.5 months off, followed by 1 month of a throwing program/sim games, followed by 1-2 weeks of bullpen, getting back to being used to live pitching, and then by mid to late October, he's ready to go out and give you 85-90 pitches. That's good for 5-6 innings, and then you can piggy back him with Aceves.

 

Either way you look at it, Buchholz 5 IP + Aceves 2 IP >>> Lackey/Bedard 7 IP.

 

How is 4 months off completely misleading? If he starts in the ALCS, it will be 4 months between starts. I'm not saying that simulated games are worthless, however, they are not always a sure-fire way to evaluate if a pitcher is ready to throw 80-100 pitches to real batters, guys like Texeira/Cabrera/Hamilton/Howard. Escalating his pitch count from 0 to 80 is not exactly easy on a guy's body.

 

That being said, if they can do it without putting too much strain on him, I'm all for Buch gearing up to start against the Phillies.

[SoxFanForsyth]

How is 4 months off completely misleading? If he starts in the ALCS, it will be 4 months between starts. I'm not saying that simulated games are worthless, however, they are not always a sure-fire way to evaluate if a pitcher is ready to throw 80-100 pitches to real batters, guys like Texeira/Cabrera/Hamilton/Howard. Escalating his pitch count from 0 to 80 is not exactly easy on a guy's body.

 

That being said, if they can do it without putting too much strain on him, I'm all for Buch gearing up to start against the Phillies.

 

It's misleading because it sounds as if he hasn't thrown for 4 months. He will have been throwing for 1.5 months by the time the WS gets here. Plus, I would say he'll be the 7th inning guy for a few games during the ALDS and ALCS, while also getting stretched out for a start in the WS. Maybe I just misinterpreted what you were saying, though. Either way, I don't think it's far fetched at all to think he could play a big role in the post season. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him start a game 4 or 5 in the ALCS if need be.

[a700hitter]

Still no power. Hopefully, it will be restored by Tuesday night.

[VA Sox Fan]

Still no power. Hopefully' date=' it will be restored by Tuesday night.[/quote']

 

That sucks. I only lost mine for 45 seconds, luckily.

[a700hitter]

That sucks. I only lost mine for 45 seconds' date=' luckily.[/quote']I ran into my Councilman who lives a few blocks away. He has power oddly enough and his next door neighbore don't. He's very embarrassed about how it looks. He told me that the Power Company will get our power on in 5-8 days. Ridiculous.

[VA Sox Fan]

Here are the pitching matchups for the Yankees-Sox series:

 

Tuesday: CC Sabathia vs. John Lackey, 7:10 p.m.

 

Wednesday: Phil Hughes vs. Josh Beckett, 7:10 p.m.

 

Thursday: A.J. Burnett vs. Jon Lester, 7:10 p.m.

[Jasonbay44]

I went a day without power, it was absolutely horrible. I can't imagine going 5-8 days without power.

[Palodios]

Buchholz was cleared to pitch tomorrow.

[a700hitter]

I went a day without power' date=' it was absolutely horrible. I can't imagine going 5-8 days without power.[/quote']My friend text me that O'Reilly ripped a new one tonight for the power company - LIPA. Love him or hate him, the guy gets things done. I remember when he wouldn't let up on United Way or the Red Cross for not using everything they collected for the victims families. They tried to stonewall him, but eventually they gave into the pressure. Hopefully, he will embarrass the utility into getting my power on tomorrow.

[a700hitter]

Buchholz was cleared to pitch tomorrow.

Is this for reaal? I have no power, so I'm not getting reports. This is good news.