Will Ellsbury be back after his contract ends?

[Dojji]

You're just saying that because you want him to Damon and sign with the Yankees.

[ORS]

Two words' date=' Scott Boras. Ellsbury will go where the most money is. He's got 2011 and 2012, and I think he bolts. I think the Crawford and AdGon signings have made their wallets a little tight. BTW, he might end up making over $10 million in his last arb yr next season[/quote']

This is his first arb year. They've got him through 2013.

[example1]

It is really hard to know what Ellsbury is going to do. If he keeps up this level of production then some team will pay him lots of money. If he keeps battling injuries (fingers-crossed he doesn't) then he might not get much more than $10m/yr. I suspect the former, but you never know. I don't think he has any particular loyalty to Boston.

[Palodios]

I would bet that if they can't resign him for what they want, they'll probably prefer to get value from him while they can. If they were floating his name in trade rumors before, I can definitely see them trying to get some value from him at some point in 2013.

[redsoxbeatz]

If we win the WS this year I think Ellsbury would be stupid to leave such an awesome team. I hate that players will ditch amazing teams just for money. I'd rather make less and win WS and be apart of the best fan base in the world....

 

There will be the money it seems though in 2013. I hope we keep him.

[seabeachfred]

I just wonder if there might be some carryover with Ellsbury because of what happened last year when he got moved to left field, then got his ribs mangled, was misdiagnosed, and then re-habbed on his own. That was a lot of baggage that went down last year. Could there still be some bitterness between him and Epstein? You couldn't tell it from what he has done so far because he has played terrific baseball for us.

 

I would like to see the Red Sox show good faith and sign him up long term, then go out and trade for a RH hitting rightfielder next season, someone like Hunter Pence. A guy like Ells who can hit for average, steal upwards of 70 bases and shows decent power for a speedster is not the type you want to see move on. My only complaint against him is that he needs to work on his bunting. He could add a few points to his average and stolen base totals if he worked on that more.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Regardless of who his agent is, it's still his choice on what he wants to do. I think if the Sox want to lock up him to a 4-5 year deal, they need to do it now, after he had his injury spell last year and it's still fresh on his mind just how quickly your career can take a turn. Maybe he'll buy into the same idea that Pedroia, Youk, Lester, and Buch bought into.

[seabeachfred]

Forsyth--I notice your major slam of Francona as a lousy bullpen coach. Since I haven't been on this board in a couple of years I'm not going to touch that one. Suffice to say, on Sawxheads, the main board I post on, the pros and cons of Francona as a field manager has led to some hot and heavy arguments. For my part, he is a good clubhouse manager, handles his players well, keeps the pressure off of them. In the dugout, though, you may have a valid point.

 

As for Ellsbury, I hope he stays with the Red Sox. I just believe that if he leaves there will be the Yankees there to try and gobble him up.

[Spitball]

I see the Ellsbury contract issue as potentially a real difficult decision for the Red Sox, especially with Boros involved. Does Ellsbury have the potential to develop some power, stay healthy, and turn into another Carl Crawford? Or is he simply another Scott Podsednik?

 

I'm not sure the Sox will gamble on his "Crawford" potential. Center fielders tend to get injured. Fred Lynn was one of the greatest center fielders I've ever witnessed, but injuries caused by playing center seriously affected his career. Coco Crisp was another very good center fielder who played the position with excitement but was injured often.

 

So, center fielders get injured often and frequently lose their speed. How do teams deal with center fielders that are signed past their usefullness as center fielders? Torii Hunter went to right. Junior Griffey went to right. Andruw Jones went to left and DH. I don't see Ellsbury having the option to move with the Red Sox. Crawford will be in left for many years and Ellsbury doesn't have a right fielder's arm. It is a gamble to assume his bat will pan out as a DH.

 

I like Ellsbury but think the Sox will be cautious when it comes to extending him for a very long time. The Sox do have Felix Sanchez who should be ready in a couple of years to put his time in as the center fielder. I think the Sox are likely to gamble on his potential before they are likely to gamble on Ellsbury.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is his first arb year. They've got him through 2013.

 

Ah, you are right. I forgot his first season consisted of only 33 games

[WhiskeyBreath]

Two words' date=' [b']Scott Boras[/b]. Ellsbury will go where the most money is. He's got 2011 and 2012, and I think he bolts.

 

Agreed. Came in this thread to say the same thing. Jacoby made the answer pretty clear when he sacked his agent and hired Boras. He's going to go for the biggest offer and I have serious doubts that the Boston Red Sox will be the team he ends up with.

[seabeachfred]

Oh boy, all we had to do was mention the name Scott Boras and the whole scenario changes. With Ellsbury a lot would depend on how badly he wants to remain with the Red Sox. The team has the money to pay him and, likewise, it would remain to be seen how badly Epstein and Co. want to hold on to him. Whiskey's point about CF getting hurt or moving over later in their careers is certainly a valid point and Crawford looks ensconced in LF for the next seven years. Again, though, the Red Sox must keep in mind the offensive ability of a player who can over 300, steal 70 bases, show surprising power for a speedy CF, and hit lefties successfully, when they contemplate whether to resign him or bid him a fond adieu. I'm an Ellsbury fan and want him around.....as seems obvious by my posts on this topic.

[Will617]

The Sox have $94 million committed to 2014, which is when Ellsbury becomes a free agent. That rises to about $107 million if Lester's option is picked up (although that option is apparently void if he finishes 1st or 2nd in Cy Young voting in any year of his current contract). They also would have to deal with the 3rd year of arbitration for Bard, Lowrie, Saltalamacchia, and Aceves (assuming all are still with the team), which will probably cost a decent chunk of money. They then have some major holes to fill from now until 2014, assuming that there are no adequate in-house candidates: RF, DH, 3B, closer, and a 5th starter.

The Sox won't spend past the luxury tax, which is somewhere aroud $165 million this season. That will undoubtedly rise, giving the Sox about $80 million that they can allocate in 2014. They need to commit that money towards 4 starting positions, probably 3-4 arbitration cases, and then Ellsbury. (Assuming no one gets hurt and needs to be replaced, and that no prospects can fill the void).

So, if the Sox need to acquire one or two marquee players between now and 2014, they should have plenty of money left over to retain Ellsbury. However, if they need to make more big signings than that, money is probably going to be stretched (some would need to be allocated to the bullpen) and make it tough to keep Ellsbury around.

I think that the payroll situation makes it pretty easy to afford Ellsbury. The only question is whether Boras' asking price will be too high (or another team were to overbid, like the Phillies did with Werth). The number of years shouldn't be a problem, since the Sox seem willing to sign athletic players to long contracts (Crawford).

[seabeachfred]

Pretty good research Will. However, your final take is that the team could afford him when all is said and done. Let me throw up this trial balloon.....We have some money coming off the books this off season. Could we do with Ells what we did with Lester, Youkilis and Pedroia and extend him past his free agent years, something like a four year offer with an option year? It seems it could be done but it all depends on how badly Jacoby wants to stay with the Red Sox and how badly Epstein wants to retain him. I could mention Boras but I know he is the joker in this deck.

[Will617]

Pretty good research Will. However' date=' your final take is that the team could afford him when all is said and done. Let me throw up this trial balloon.....We have some money coming off the books this off season. Could we do with Ells what we did with Lester, Youkilis and Pedroia and extend him past his free agent years, something like a four year offer with an option year? It seems it could be done but it all depends on how badly Jacoby wants to stay with the Red Sox and how badly Epstein wants to retain him. I could mention Boras but I know he is the joker in this deck.[/quote']

 

If he wanted to I think it would have happened already. I'm pretty sure he's hitting the market, or getting a big payday right before it.

At the very least, if he does get a long-term deal after the season it will not be all that team-friendly, IMO.

[snydersminipretzels]

Agreed. Came in this thread to say the same thing. Jacoby made the answer pretty clear when he sacked his agent and hired Boras. He's going to go for the biggest offer and I have serious doubts that the Boston Red Sox will be the team he ends up with.

 

The Red Sox are one of the few teams in baseball that can come up with the biggest offer for the players they want.

 

Personally, I'd rather the Sox take a run at Matt Kemp.

[Spitball]

I think it is important to consider Ellsbury's age (28) and future options as a defensive player. As an offensive player, I think he will continue to produce but may evolve into a different type of player.

 

In My Own Menagerie, Bill James discusses how he projects the development of young players over their careers. I can't begin to understand it all but Rich Lederer from The Baseball Analysts does a great job of bulleting key points:

 

•In trying to figure out how much a player will develop, probably the one most important factor to consider, other than the player's ability, is his age.

 

 

•. . .his skills undergo certain predictable changes. All players lose speed as they age; thus, speed-related skills are young player's skills.

 

 

Many players, perhaps most players, are driven out of the major leagues indirectly because they lose their speed. If you can create seven runs a game if doesn't matter how fast you are; you can play first base or DH. But as a player loses speed as he ages, he loses the ability to play the positions (center field, shortstop, second base) at which offensive ability is scarce, and thus loses the ability to stay in the majors without creating seven runs a game.

 

I'm sure these points from James's study will be taken into account when decisions are being made about about signing him past 2013 (when he will being entering his 30s). What happens when Ellsbury begins to lose speed? Does he stay in center field when his range declines? He can't move to left because of Crawford. He doesn't have the arm for right.

 

As has been already said, I would try to sign him through his arb years plus 2014.

[Palodios]

As has been already said' date=' I would try to sign him through his arb years plus 2014.[/quote']

 

I think everyone would like to sign him till age 31 or age 32, but I'm not sure if that will happen. Boras is definitely smart enough to know the market values of speed guys as their legs decline, and that it'll be much easier to get a big payday for this kind of player at 30 than at 32.

[redsoxrules]

If Ellsbury finishes the year with an 850 OPS and does the same next year then he's going to want to have CC type money .

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Ellsbury finishes the year with an 850 OPS and does the same next year then he's going to want to have CC type money .

 

Absolutely. And Sox can't afford another contract like that. Ells is one of my favorite players, but I think he'll go somewhere else in a few years.

 

Hopefully the Sox can win a few WS with him in the line up, they already have 1 in 07 with him. Never know - Some players will take a hometown discount if it involves winning. Look at CarGo. He's a Boras client. Took a 7 year, $80mm contract. If he went year-to-year, he would have gotten much more than that. Likes the club, likes their chances to win.

 

So if the Red Sox can sign Ellsbury to a 5 year, $55-60mm contract, I think they would do it.

[Palodios]

SFF and I had posted these numbers in the gamethread a few days ago, so I figured I'd put it up here as well.

 

Ellsbury is on a pace for .310/.370/.476/.846, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 50 Doubles, 110 Runs, 65 Stolen Bases, and 202 Hits.

 

Crawford's stats last year: .307/.356/.495/.851, 19 HR, 90 RBI, 110 runs, 47 SB, 184 hits. He also has 43 doubles and triples (Ellsbury has no triples right now),

 

Those numbers are ridiculously close. Ellsbury's defense isn't quite there, but still look at how similar those numbers are. Having such a direct comparison is great for an agent like Boras.

[Will617]

I think CarGo's contract bought out multiple years of arbitration as well as a couple of free agent years, his first four years cost $24 million, and then the next 3 cost $56 million. So, it's not as if he's not getting a good deal in this too. And, in some ways he's an unknown commodity - he basically played a replacement level half-season, a decent half-season, and then broke out last season, while Ellsbury is a fairly known commodity.

The Sox seem to have faith that athletic players will age well, given Crawford's contract. And I'm not sure that Ells' arm would be that big of a liability if he were forced to move to LF or RF - 1. I'm sure Crawford could switch to RF as well, and 2. CF is pretty big. If Ells projects as a player that needs to move to a corner spot, I think the biggest problem is that he would prevent the Sox from signing a better offensive player for a corner spot.

[Spitball]

I think everyone would like to sign him till age 31 or age 32' date=' but I'm not sure if that will happen. Boras is definitely smart enough to know the market values of speed guys as their legs decline, and that it'll be much easier to get a big payday for this kind of player at 30 than at 32.[/quote']

 

I agree but don't think that is wise for the Red Sox to sign him through his declining speed years...and certainly not for Crawford type money. He won't be able to move to left field, and he will surely become a defensive liability in center. If Ellsbury's speed and range do decline, and I believe they will, there will not be room for both Ellsbury and Crawford in the same outfield.

 

That said, I don't think Crawford is probably the comparison at this point. They are not far apart in age and Crawford has been producing at a pretty good level of play for more years. To date, no player of Crawford's ilk has ever signed such a rich contract for so many years, and it is hard to project the market for outfielders in the coming years. I doubt anyone could have foreseen Jayson Werth's or Carl Crawford's contracts coming even two years ago. If they have set mark by which Ellsbury is to be paid, I think the Sox will (and should)pass.

[Scottish Red Sox Fan]

I could go either way with Jacoby. He needs to get on base way more often if he hit's first. He needs to learn to bunt for a hit.

 

I think that's slightly unfair on Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox as a ball club really don't believe in bunting men over so bunting is probably something Ellsbury spends very little time practising.

 

Personally I'd like to see the Red Sox, as a team, bunt a few more men over when they get on base. Don't get me wrong, I don't want the Red Sox to become a team that plays 'small ball', but I definitely think there are occasions where we could be a bit more flexible in our approach to the game.

[VA Sox Fan]

More on Jacoby Ellsbury's historical season

 

Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff September 26, 2011 01:58 PM

 

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

 

BALTIMORE — Jacoby Ellsbury has 208 hits, 117 runs, 45 doubles, 31 homers, 103 RBIs, 38 steals and five triples.

 

Nobody in baseball history has ever had a season hitting those marks in those seven categories. The most comparable season was Alfonso Soriano in 2002. He had 209 hits, 128 runs, 51 doubles, 39 homers, 102 RBIs, 41 steals and two triples.

 

Ellsbury is hitting .322/.377/.551 while Soriano hit .300/.332/.547 for the Yankees that season. He finished third in the MVP voting behind Miguel Tejada and Alex Rodriguez.

 

For you fans of advanced metrics, Soriano had a 4.7 WAR that season. Jacoby is at 7.3 this season. So Ellsbury clearly had the better season.

 

It'll be interesting to see where Ellsbury lands in the MVP voting. He has clearly passed teammates Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia and deserves to be the top-ranked Red Sox.

 

The question is whether voters will reward Justin Verlander for what he has done for the division-champion Tigers or give the award to the statistically overwhelming (.304/.447/.615) Jose Bautista. Ellsbury seems sure to finish no worse than third and could well win it.

 

Another game-winning home run with all of baseball watching might make the difference.

[SoxSport]

The difference was Soriano's low OBP. He didn't last. The Yankees wisely unloaded him for ARod.

 

I think Verlander will win it. Ellsbury and "Grandyman" will split the rest of the vote.

That will be enough for Verlander.

[redsoxrules]

The difference was Soriano's low OBP. He didn't last. The Yankees wisely unloaded him for ARod.

 

I think Verlander will win it. Ellsbury and "Grandyman" will split the rest of the vote.

That will be enough for Verlander.

 

I highly doubt Verlander wins MVP .

 

Pedro didn't even win it in 2000 in wich he had a much better year than Verlander .

[jacksonianmarch]

In response to the initial question, I think Ells signs a megadeal with someone other than Boston

[Station 13]

In response to the initial question' date=' I think Ells signs a megadeal with someone other than Boston[/quote']

 

Why? You think the Red Sox can't afford him or something, or is just Ells wanting to play elsewhere?

[SoxSport]

I highly doubt Verlander wins MVP .

 

Pedro didn't even win it in 2000 in wich he had a much better year than Verlander .

 

The difference here is a split vote. A pitcher vs 2 outfielders who will split the anti-pitcher vote.