2011 Red Sox Predictions

[Dojji]

I can think of tons of examples of guys who have mid-teen HR power in their early twenties that blossom into 20 HR guys by their late 20's.

 

http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2008/12/17/1229571365_8704/539w.jpg

 

Just saying. Remember when he was "not an great hitter?" That was what, 2007? And his age 28 season? Compared directly and not always favorably with Casey Kotchman, Lyle Overbay and Ryan Garko. Where are those 3 now?

 

if you have the right approach and quick hands, you don't need a monster body to be a power hitter. We have the perfect example of that playing second for us. No reason Jed Lowrie can't learn to refine his approach the same way Youk and Pedroia did. I'll more than take 12 HR's and 30-35 doubles from the guy, it's still more than we'll get from Scutaro. But a breakout is not that ridiculous to hope for.

[Dipre]

There are plenty of cases of players who miss time due to injuries or personal issues (Josh Hamilton' date=' Jayson Werth) and continue down the development path they were expected to have, but here lies the key to the issue, [b']continue their development path[/b], where is the indication that Lowrie's development path was going to take to 20-homer, 40-double land?

 

Sure, stranger things have happened, (See: Ramirez, Hanley; Cano, Robinson, Youkilis, Kevin) but is that a reason to say that something as unlikely as him hitting 20 homers or slugging .520 is a near certainty? Because that is being a homer of the worst kind. Now, i'm not saying you're doing that, but let's also mention that Beltre's 2010 season was a fluke indeed but it was not close (power-wise) to 2004. He hit 48 homers and had an OPS over 1.000 , 2010 ain't even close.

 

Also, food for thought, here are the players who slugged .520 or better last year: Corey Hart, David Ortiz, Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth, Robinson Cano, Luke Scott, Adam Dunn, Beltre, Tulo, Paul Konerko, Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzales, Joey Votto, Miguel Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton.

 

The 20-Homer list ain't too long either.

 

My point is that being optimistic and realistic are different things. Hell, he could break out and hit 54 homers like Bautista, but come on.

 

Do you f***ing read?

 

Anyways, you're grasping at straws, and they're not too big. The possibility exists, and you can hope for it, but it's not likely to happen. Just like it wasn't likely that any other of the prospects/s***** players you have pimped lived to the enormous expectations planted on them by you.

[Dojji]

The possibility is a little bigger than you're allowing yourself to admit. The kid's a great big wildcard. Every now and again those things work out well instead of poorly.

[Dipre]

I've heard that exact same line before with: Daniel Nava, Hunter Jones, Lars Anderson, Tug Hulett, Mark Teahen etc etc etc.

 

I also love how you cherry-picked ORS's post to justify your position:

 

The fact of the matter with Lowrie is that nobody, and I mean nobody, can realistically expect anything from him, good or bad. There's a 2.5 year window of play, one that's pretty recent, that is either missing or can't be considered reliable because he was playing hurt. Before and after that, there's some data that suggests he could be pretty good. It's foolish to build a house on that data, but it's equally foolish to attempt to toss it aside given the circumstance, which is what you seem to want to do.

 

To come to a conclusion about what he can do, you have to watch him play. Bottom line.

[Dojji]

I've learned in many of the abuve debates that it never pays to waste keystrokes on you after I've said my piece.. Enjoy your offseason.

[Dipre]

Mostly because the results speak fro themselves.

[DirtDog]

Lowrie has proven that when healthy he is solid. I would be very interested to see what he could do with 400 ABs, maybe even a full year. The guy has had some tough breaks (mono killed his whole season one year) it would be a nice story if he broke out.

[Station 13]

I expect another big season from Bard.

 

He won't have to deal with the work load he had in 2010. The 46 inherited runners he had will be spread to Jenks and Wheeler.

 

His pre-allstar stats (2010): 1.90 ERA 0.82 WHIP (41 appearances), post all-star 1.97 ERA 1.25 WHIP (32 appearances)

 

He allow runs only twice out of 32 appearances last season at Fenway. Paps allowed more runs in several single appearances than Bard at home all season.

 

His career at Fenway: 1.09 ERA 0.81 WHIP (56 appearances)

[example1]

I expect another big season from Bard.

 

He won't have to deal with the work load he had in 2010. The 46 inherited runners he had will be spread to Jenks and Wheeler.

 

His pre-allstar stats (2010): 1.90 ERA 0.82 WHIP (41 appearances), post all-star 1.97 ERA 1.25 WHIP (32 appearances)

 

He allow runs only twice out of 32 appearances last season at Fenway. Paps allowed more runs in several single appearances than Bard at home all season.

 

His career at Fenway: 1.09 ERA 0.81 WHIP (56 appearances)

 

Great post. Stats are fun.

 

I think it's fascinating that the Sox added two other solid and established bullpen arms this year, but Bard is easily the best pitcher in the bullpen. That's some great depth.

 

I can't help but wonder if the Sox are still tempted to convert Bard into a SP. His arm is so good and his stuff is so easy that it has to be in the back of their minds, no?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Great post. Stats are fun.

 

I think it's fascinating that the Sox added two other solid and established bullpen arms this year, but Bard is easily the best pitcher in the bullpen. That's some great depth.

 

I can't help but wonder if the Sox are still tempted to convert Bard into a SP. His arm is so good and his stuff is so easy that it has to be in the back of their minds, no?

 

Part of me would love to see that, but then I look at his stats as a starter in the minors.

 

He started 22 games his first year in the minors (2007), and posted a 7.08 ERA.

 

Then in 2008, he went to the bullpen, and posted a 1.51 ERA.

 

2009 - Still in the bullpen - 1.12 ERA.

 

I'm not sure if it's mental, or if he starts to blow up after 3-4 innings, but something is different.

 

Besides, when you find gold, why try to change it?

[jacksonianmarch]

He's got a great 1-2 punch. He has no third pitch. Moving him to the rotation would be abysmal for him

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's got a great 1-2 punch. He has no third pitch. Moving him to the rotation would be abysmal for him

 

Fastball and slider are incredible. Add a splitter or a change up, and I think he could transition into a SP, but he would never be as effective in a SP role as he is in the RP role. He is an elite reliever to me.

[BSN07]

Great post. Stats are fun.

 

I think it's fascinating that the Sox added two other solid and established bullpen arms this year, but Bard is easily the best pitcher in the bullpen. That's some great depth.

 

I can't help but wonder if the Sox are still tempted to convert Bard into a SP. His arm is so good and his stuff is so easy that it has to be in the back of their minds, no?

 

If Papelbon would take a reasonable 3 year deal, then I think they might entertain the thought.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If Papelbon would take a reasonable 3 year deal' date=' then I think they might entertain the thought.[/quote']

 

Oh God, No. Pap needs to get out of the Red Sox bullpen as fast as we can get him out next offseason.

 

With the likes of Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps, Joe Nathan, Jose Valverde, and Joel Zumaya all projecting as 2012 free agents, it would be incredibly irresponsible to re-sign Papelbon and not go after one of those FA's, especially Broxton or Bell.

 

EDIT: Let it be known, I really do not like Papelbon. I don't think your blood pressure should rise significantly when your closer is trotting in from the bullpen.

[Dipre]

Wait, so not "liking" Papelbon means he should be gone even if he pulls his s*** together? If they manage to fix whatever is wrong with him and he wants to stay at a reasonable price, then by all means, keep him. Liking or disliking a player shouldn't correlate when making an honest assessment as to his performance.

 

On the Bard to the rotation topic, it makes no sense IMO, the Sox have all five rotation spots locked down, and as Jacko said (i'm regurgitating as i type this) he's a two-pitch pitcher, meaning his stuff doesn't currently translate to the rotation, and developing a pitch is not an easy thing.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Papelbon has shown a consistent decline over the past 3 years in BB/9, HR/9, and FIP. His LOB% was an incredible 89.3% in 2009, which is why his ERA somehow was at 1.85. His K/BB ratio has decreased each of the past 3 years.

 

No, its not just because I don't like him that we should get rid of him. It's because he has consistently gotten worse over the past 3 years, and one year of improvement does not rationalize giving someone a multi year deal, even if it is at a team discount.

 

I would rather pay someone like Heath Bell 3/30 than to pay Papelbon 3/18.

[BSN07]

I don't like 3 year deals for any RP. So I would definitely pass on giving the 33 year old Bell, that had a 5ish career ERA before heading to the hitting vacuum that is the NL West a 3 year deal. I apply the same worry about Pitchers coming from Petco as say hitters coming from Coors. In fact I can't recall one pitcher off the top of my head that pitched at least as well for his new team after leaving the Padres. So no on Heath Bell.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't like 3 year deals for any RP. So I would definitely pass on giving the 33 year old Bell' date=' that had a 5ish career ERA before heading to the hitting vacuum that is the NL West a 3 year deal. I apply the same worry about Pitchers coming from Petco as say hitters coming from Coors. In fact I can't recall one pitcher off the top of my head that pitched at least as well for his new team after leaving the Padres. So no on Heath Bell.[/quote']

 

Ok I'll give you that. Heath Bell could very well struggle in the AL East, so I was probably wrong there.

 

But I still stand by my opinion on Papelbon. I would much rather give Bard the ball in the 9th as to Papelbon, even this year.

 

Based on Papelbon's decline over the past 3 years, I wouldn't even offer him a deal for 2012 and beyond. Cut ties with him, let Wheeler, Jenks, and Bard be your 7-8-9 inning guys, maybe Jason Rice or Drake Britton will be available by 2013 to work out of the bullpen. And who knows about Felix Doubront, he could be a very effective 7th or 8th inning guy.

[Dipre]

So if Papelbon re-discovers his split and posts 2008 numbers, then decides he wants to stay or build up his value some more and is willing to sign a reasonable two-year contract, it would be a bad idea to keep him around with Bard and Jenks? I don't follow.

 

We are working under the assumption that he fixes whatever is wrong.

[SoxFanForsyth]

So if Papelbon re-discovers his split and posts 2008 numbers, then decides he wants to stay or build up his value some more and is willing to sign a reasonable two-year contract, it would be a bad idea to keep him around with Bard and Jenks? I don't follow.

 

We are working under the assumption that he fixes whatever is wrong.

 

After seeing him decline every year for the past 3 years, even with a bounce back year, I think there would be much better options out on the market, even if you have to spend a bit more.

 

Besides - it's not like we're going to have to go out and buy a closer on the market. We've got an elite set up man who is probably going to transition into an elite closer soon, and is still developing in Bard. Even with a bounce back year, I see no reason to invest any more money in Papelbon.

 

I want a closer who is consistent, or as close to it as a RP can be. I can live with one ore two bad years of the last 5-6 years, but a downward trend followed by 1 bounce back year is not enough for me to give a guy a contract.

 

If I am Papelbon's agent, I am starting to put a bug in his ear about the potential for a 1 year deal in a pitchers park at a decreased salary to up his value.

 

EDIT: I understand that we are under the assumption that he fixes whatever is wrong with him, but after a 3 year downward trend, I would need to see consistent improvement (at least 2-3 years of 2007 and 2008-esque numbers) to sell me on him, and unfortunately, he's only got 1 year left on his deal.

[Dipre]

Three year downward trend? 2008 was arguably Papelbon's best overall season since it represented his actual talent level (Normalized BABIP) and he still had excellent numbers and peripherals.

 

Papelbon has had two bad seasons: 09 and 10, and both have one thing in particular, which is a sky-high BB/9. If they fix his control, there's no reason not to believe he would continue to be successful, and one more year of success in the AL East is enough, for me, to not go out and gamble on an NL West pitcher or move Bard from a spot where he has already become one of the best in the business.

[Dojji]

The problem I've seen with Papelbon seems to center around his inability to throw anything for a strike but fastballs. All of his offspeed stuff is of the "dives out of the zone" variety. That's a kind of guy that a league can adjust to and start taking pitches for balls they used to swing over the top of. So they wait for him to go down to 2 or 3 balls and then cheat on the heat. He needs to find a way to back them off the fastball behind in the count. That happens when he can hit the strike zone consistently with something other than a 4 seam fastball.

 

Just my $.02. If I had to come up with a verdict, it would be "work on a cutter or two-seamer to throw off the fastball timing." We'll see what Young comes up with.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Three year downward trend? 2008 was arguably Papelbon's best overall season since it represented his actual talent level (Normalized BABIP) and he still had excellent numbers and peripherals.

 

Papelbon has had two bad seasons: 09 and 10, and both have one thing in particular, which is a sky-high BB/9. If they fix his control, there's no reason not to believe he would continue to be successful, and one more year of success in the AL East is enough, for me, to not go out and gamble on an NL West pitcher or move Bard from a spot where he has already become one of the best in the business.

 

Papelbon's 2009 and 2010 BB/9 numbers were closer to his career norms than his 2008 numbers were! If any of those years were an aberration, it would be his 2008 numbers.

 

Besides his BB/9 increasing since 2008, his HR/9 has increased as well. This tells me that he's lost a significant amount of control, as his balls are not only missing the plate, but also are leaking over the middle of the plate more often.

 

I'll give you that his 2008 season was probably his most effective in relation to his BABIP, but since then there has been a significant downward trend, and while it is attributable to his loss of command, even if he comes back and posts a 2.3 BB/9 which is about what his career norms are, I think his future performances will be more consistent to 09-10 than 07-08.

 

Also - his Z-Contact% has increased as well, and sat at 87.7% last year, so, even though his K/9 ratio is consistent with career norms, hitters are making contact with balls inside the strike zone much more frequently. Compare that to his 2008 number of 82.3%, and that's a significant increase.

 

He's just a less effective pitcher. I would much rather give Bard a shot at closing in 2012 than to take a chance and pay Papelbon 8-10mm in hopes that a good 2011 is not an aberration, but signs of things to come.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Off the Papelbon topic -

 

Votto agrees to a 3 year/38mm extension, while Soriano gets 3 years/35mm. My dear God, that's so sick.

 

I know that Votta took well below market value, but those two contracts shouldn't have been within 20mm of each other.

[jacksonianmarch]

Votto also is still in his arb yrs

[Dipre]

Papelbon's 2009 and 2010 BB/9 numbers were closer to his career norms than his 2008 numbers were! If any of those years were an aberration, it would be his 2008 numbers.

 

Besides his BB/9 increasing since 2008, his HR/9 has increased as well. This tells me that he's lost a significant amount of control, as his balls are not only missing the plate, but also are leaking over the middle of the plate more often.

 

His career BB/9 up to 2008: 2.1.

 

Two years of 3.70 BB/9 will make a reliever's career norm sky-rocket. Context adjustment is needed.

 

His HR/9 in 2006 was right around his career numbers without 2010, and right around it with it too. Not to mention that an 0.2 or 0.3 increase in HR/9 for a reliever is insignificant given the amount of innings they pitch. One cheap homer may do the trick. In fact, the difference between his 2007 HR total and 2010 HR total is exactly two homeruns.

 

I'll give you that his 2008 season was probably his most effective in relation to his BABIP, but since then there has been a significant downward trend, and while it is attributable to his loss of command, even if he comes back and posts a 2.3 BB/9 which is about what his career norms are, I think his future performances will be more consistent to 09-10 than 07-08.

 

Also - his Z-Contact% has increased as well, and sat at 87.7% last year, so, even though his K/9 ratio is consistent with career norms, hitters are making contact with balls inside the strike zone much more frequently. Compare that to his 2008 number of 82.3%, and that's a significant increase.

 

He's just a less effective pitcher. I would much rather give Bard a shot at closing in 2012 than to take a chance and pay Papelbon 8-10mm in hopes that a good 2011 is not an aberration, but signs of things to come.

 

His 05/08 BB/9 number (2.1) much more useful for the purpose of the current discussion, and there's a reason why hitters are making more contact with pitches in the strike zone, and that's because he only throws fastballs in the strike zone.

 

I just don't get why it's so absolutely difficult to believe he could re-capture his effectiveness with some specific adjustments, and that he would be an asset if it did happen. And with a pitcher of Papelbon's age (mid-prime) whatever adjustments made in 2011 would certainly more than likely be an indicator of things to come, and a re-capturing of earlier success.

 

Funny how now a lot of people now want to hang Papelbon by the balls after he was a Sox "hero" whether he recaptures his form or not.

[yankees228]

Votto also is still in his arb yrs

 

This. Comparing the two contracts makes absolutely no sense. They overpaid for Soriano, but not nearly by the amount that your comparison suggests.

[SoxFanForsyth]

His career BB/9 up to 2008: 2.1.

 

Two years of 3.70 BB/9 will make a reliever's career norm sky-rocket. Context adjustment is needed.

 

His HR/9 in 2006 was right around his career numbers without 2010, and right around it with it too. Not to mention that an 0.2 or 0.3 increase in HR/9 for a reliever is insignificant given the amount of innings they pitch. One cheap homer may do the trick. In fact, the difference between his 2007 HR total and 2010 HR total is exactly two homeruns.

 

 

 

His 05/08 BB/9 number (2.1) much more useful for the purpose of the current discussion, and there's a reason why hitters are making more contact with pitches in the strike zone, and that's because he only throws fastballs in the strike zone.

 

I just don't get why it's so absolutely difficult to believe he could re-capture his effectiveness with some specific adjustments, and that he would be an asset if it did happen. And with a pitcher of Papelbon's age (mid-prime) whatever adjustments made in 2011 would certainly more than likely be an indicator of things to come, and a re-capturing of earlier success.

Funny how now a lot of people now want to hang Papelbon by the balls after he was a Sox "hero" whether he recaptures his form or not.

 

Being sentimental is exactly how you end up with an old, ineffective team. I love Pap for helping us in 2007, but I'm not still trying to win the WS in 2007. I'm trying to win it in 2011, and what he did in 2007 has no relevance to 2011.

 

Yeah. His BB/9 from 06-08 is 2.1, but now you're cherry picking stats by removing his worst two seasons. You can't just ignore the past two seasons because they are poor seasons. If he went 2.1 in 2008 to 3.2 in 2009 to 2.2 in 2010, I can understand calling it an aberration, but it's not. It has happened the past 2 seasons consecutively. It's becoming a trend, not an aberration, and there is absolutely zero indication that he is going to reduce his BB/9, and if he does reduce it in 2011, that becomes the aberration, not the trend.

 

After seeing him pitch the way he has in 2009 and 2010, in addition to his "setting records for the closers after me" in terms of payroll, I wouldn't even try to negotiate with him.

 

I see absolutely nothing in his year last year that would indicate that he would recover from consecutive poor seasons.

 

His BABIP was normal. His K/9 was over 10. His LD%, FB%, and GB% are all consistent with career norms (within about 2%). So, somehow, increasing, as you say, from 2.1 BB/9 to 3.6 BB/9 is going to raise his ERA and FIP by 1.5 points??

 

I don't see it at all.

[Dipre]

You misinterpret a point i make yet again.

 

I'm making the point that if what is wrong with him is fixed, because of his age (he is 30, not 40, so where does the "loyalty" point apply?) and past performance, that he could continue being effective, and that has nothing to do with whether i do or don't "like" the player.

 

What i like is performance, and i expect big things out of Papelbon in 2011 with the infusion of Young as pitching, because Papelbon's problems have a solution.

 

You're using around 100 IP of pitching to try and show a downward trend that is irreversible, which is ludicrous in my opinion. It's all about throwing the splitter for strikes and getting hitters away from his fastball. The stuff is still there, so the adjustments are certainly possible.

 

You don't see room for improvement because you have a pre-conceived notion of Papelbon's "ability" which seems to be mostly fueled by your actual "dislike" for the player.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You misinterpret a point i make yet again.

 

I'm making the point that if what is wrong with him is fixed, because of his age (he is 30, not 40, so where does the "loyalty" point apply?) and past performance, that he could continue being effective, and that has nothing to do with whether i do or don't "like" the player.

 

What i like is performance, and i expect big things out of Papelbon in 2011 with the infusion of Young as pitching, because Papelbon's problems have a solution.

 

You're using around 100 IP of pitching to try and show a downward trend that is irreversible, which is ludicrous in my opinion. It's all about throwing the splitter for strikes and getting hitters away from his fastball. The stuff is still there, so the adjustments are certainly possible.

 

You don't see room for improvement because you have a pre-conceived notion of Papelbon's "ability" which seems to be mostly fueled by your actual "dislike" for the player.

 

Oh, so I've disliked the player the entire time he's been on the team? No, I haven't. I've disliked him since he was still overly cocky and performed at a sub par level.

 

And I'm using around 100 IP of pitching? What are you even talking about dude? I'm using his 68 IP in 2009 and 67 in 2010, which is 135 IP, and represents 37% of his entire career. Which is also the most recent part of his career.

 

My God, you're acting like I'm cherry picking 100 innings off of a 10 year starter who has logged 1800 innings. I'm taking the most recent 1/3 of his career.

 

I know exactly what you are saying. I've read it and interpreted it. Just because my opinion is different than yours is not at all a reflection of my apparent inability to comprehend what you're saying.

 

And where does the loyalty point come from? It comes from your comment that some Sox fans want to hang him from the balls after he was a hero in 2007. Great. Lowell won the WS MVP that year. Do you want to go get him back, too? 2007 is absolutely meaningless, especially after 2 consecutive years of sub par performance.

 

Even if he comes back and pitches like he did in 2008, that is an aberration, not a trend. He has had 6 years to prove that he was an effective reliever. He showed effectiveness in 4 of those 6 years. But the past 2 years - no dice.