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First of all, my initial argument was that the FO got lucky with Beltre and Ortiz, because the odds of them both becoming MVP contenders was slim to none considering injury history, Beltre's mediocre 2005-2010 and several other factors. I simply felt like the risks of Ortiz were adequate enough that I didn't have to go over them.

 

Secondly, I'm glad you finally brought some stats to the table. His XBH versus specific stadiums is definitely an interesting thing to note, and a very good point to bring to the discussion. But as you keep saying, its hard to judge based on small samples, especially when there are so many stadiums he only played 2-5 games in, and the pitching is very relevant to that as well. As you can tell, there are far too many outliers. Park factors do affect hitting, and I'm clearly not denying that, but as we can see from his stats at Yankee Stadium, it can just as easily balance out.

 

That's why I brought up the point of OPS versus specific divisions, especially since that point is at the very core of this discussion. Nothing you can say will change the fact that he simply hit better outside of the AL East, because he did.

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Posted
That's why I brought up the point of OPS versus specific divisions' date=' especially since that point is at the very core of this discussion. Nothing you can say will change the fact that he simply hit better outside of the AL East, because he did.[/quote']

 

While i concede that he did hit better outside of the AL East, there is no denying the fact that he hits much much better in stadiums that favor RHH, and this is not an outlier of this year, but a career trend. While park factors are not the be-all, end-all, as you can see, they do affect hitters, and can tell you a lot about his specific production. Beltre benefited from luck, but he also benefited from better stadium allocation (look at the places he played in Inter-league games) which all combined for the perfect storm. But even without the lucky factors, the simple fact that he got away from Safeco helped spike his production, as his Fenway numbers will attest to.

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